Norcros — Broadening the UK bathroom product offering

Norcros (LSE: NXR)

Currency in GBP

Last close As at 25/01/2023

GBP2.12

0.50 (0.24%)

Market capitalisation

GBP189m

Research: Industrials

Norcros — Broadening the UK bathroom product offering

The acquisition of Grant Westfield (GW) is a typical Norcros deal: profitable, strongly complementary to the existing product offer and has excellent ongoing growth prospects. The cash- and debt-free consideration is £80m and represents 7.9x FY21 EBITDA. We have raised our first full-year (FY24) EPS estimate by c 10% in underlying terms, which is consistent with guidance, and the P/E for the year is now just 5.9x.

Industrials

Norcros

Broadening the UK bathroom product offering

Grant Westfield acquisition

Construction & materials

17 May 2022

Price

231p

Market cap

£206m

Net cash (£m) at end March 2022,
pre-IFRS 16 basis

7

Shares in issue

89.2m

Free float

98%

Code

NXR

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(6.2)

(15.9)

(13.9)

Rel (local)

(3.6)

(13.2)

(16.2)

52-week high/low

341p

218p

Business description

Norcros is a leading supplier of showers, enclosures and trays, tiles, taps and related fittings and accessories for bathrooms, kitchens, washrooms and other commercial environments. It has operations in the UK and South Africa, with some export activity from both countries.

Next event

FY22 results announcement

9 June 2022

Analyst

Toby Thorrington

+44 (0)20 3077 5721

Norcros is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited.

The acquisition of Grant Westfield (GW) is a typical Norcros deal: profitable, strongly complementary to the existing product offer and has excellent ongoing growth prospects. The cash- and debt-free consideration is £80m and represents 7.9x FY21 EBITDA. We have raised our first full-year (FY24) EPS estimate by c 10% in underlying terms, which is consistent with guidance, and the P/E for the year is now just 5.9x.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/20

342.0

27.1

26.1

3.1

8.8

1.3

03/21

324.2

29.0

29.1

8.2

7.9

3.5

03/22e

396.2

35.6

33.6

9.0

6.8

3.9

03/23e

436.7

39.8

34.6

9.8

6.6

4.2

Note: *PBT and EPS (fully diluted) are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptionals, pension net finance costs and change in fair value of derivatives.

More of the same but different

Norcros has an excellent M&A track record and the proposed acquisition of GW expands the company’s UK bathroom products portfolio. Its range of laminated panels (c 85% revenue) and flooring (c 15%) are highly complementary to Norcros’s Merlyn (shower enclosures) and Johnson Tiles (wall and floor tiles) and are a natural fit with its other shower and tap product lines. With £42m annual revenues (calendar 2021), GW will be the third or fourth largest of eight companies in the group’s UK portfolio and it is already a very profitable operation with EBITDA margins of more than 20%. Norcros management believes they are sustainable, as is the recent 10% revenue growth rate. There is capacity for a significant volume increase (from the flexible production plant, which is running on a single shift) and channel benefits from being part of a larger group. In addition, nascent export opportunities include the group’s sister South African retail business, Tile Africa.

Estimates raised, pro-forma gearing 1.0x EBITDA

The enterprise consideration for GW is £80m, which Norcros is part funding through a placing that raised c £19m at 230p/share. A year-end trading update indicated Norcros was in a £7m net cash position at the end of March and, on our provisional estimates, the group’s core net debt position (pre IFRS 16) at the end of FY23 is projected to be c £47m (well within the recently announced new £130m RCF); this represents c 0.9x our expected EBITDA in the year (after pensions cash). We have increased our underlying EPS estimates by c 3% for FY23 and c 10% for FY24 following the deal (or c 2% and c 9% respectively after a separate £0.4m increase in the IAS19R admin cost run rate; included in Edison normalised PBT, but excluded from the company’s definition).

Valuation: Rating attraction deepens

Consumer-oriented cyclical stocks in the building materials space have seen significant share price declines year to date on underlying estimates that seem to have been robust, leading to rating compression. This also applies to Norcros, and more so given that GW is an earnings-enhancing deal. As a result, rating multiples have become even more attractive and Norcros is trading on just 5.9x FY24 earnings and EV/EBITDA (adjusted for pensions cash) of 4.3x.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

£m

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022e

2023e

2024e

March

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

 

 

Cont.

Cont.

Cont.

Cont.

Cont.

Cont.

Cont.

Cont.

Cont.

Cont.

Revenue

 

 

222.1

235.9

271.2

300.1

331.0

342.0

324.2

396.2

436.7

470.4

Cost of Sales

 

 

N/A

N/A

(171.7)

(190.4)

(206.8)

(217.5)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Gross Profit

 

 

N/A

N/A

99.5

109.7

124.2

124.5

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

EBITDA IFRS16

 

 

24.3

28.0

31.6

34.7

42.2

38.8

39.9

46.0

53.3

59.5

Op Profit (before SBP)

 

 

18.3

22.5

25.2

28.3

35.6

32.2

34.7

41.3

47.3

53.3

Net Interest

 

 

(1.2)

(0.9)

(0.9)

(1.1)

(1.8)

(1.6)

(1.5)

(0.6)

(2.5)

(2.7)

Other financial - norm

 

 

(3.1)

(3.1)

(3.6)

(2.8)

(2.9)

(3.5)

(4.3)

(5.1)

(5.0)

(5.0)

Other financial

 

 

2.1

(0.2)

(4.2)

(4.5)

2.3

0.9

(3.0)

(0.4)

(0.4)

(0.4)

Intangible Amortisation

 

 

(0.3)

(0.9)

(1.2)

(2.2)

(3.5)

(3.7)

(3.7)

(3.7)

(3.7)

(3.7)

Exceptionals

 

 

(4.8)

(2.0)

(3.8)

(4.2)

(4.3)

(9.3)

(3.8)

0.0

(5.0)

(1.0)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

14.0

18.5

20.7

24.4

30.9

27.1

29.0

35.6

39.8

45.6

Profit Before Tax (company norm) 

 

15.8

20.4

22.9

26.3

32.6

28.8

30.6

37.7

41.8

47.6

Profit Before Tax (statutory)

 

 

11.0

15.4

11.5

13.5

25.4

15.0

18.5

31.4

30.7

40.4

Tax

 

 

(3.0)

(2.4)

(3.0)

(3.6)

(6.0)

(4.1)

(3.5)

(7.8)

(8.8)

(10.5)

Other

 

 

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit After Tax (norm)

 

 

11.1

16.1

17.7

20.8

24.9

23.0

25.5

27.7

31.1

35.1

Profit After Tax (statutory)

 

 

8.1

13.0

8.5

9.9

19.4

10.9

15.0

23.6

21.9

29.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Avge Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

 

 

59.2

60.6

61.1

68.0

80.2

80.3

80.6

80.9

88.2

89.2

Avge Number of Shares Outstanding FD (m)

 

 

61.5

62.2

63.1

69.8

81.1

81.0

80.8

82.4

89.8

90.7

EPS FD - norm (p)

 

 

18.0

24.7

24.4

26.8

29.6

26.1

29.1

33.6

34.6

38.7

EPS FD - co norm (p)

 

 

21.1

27.7

27.8

29.5

31.7

28.2

31.1

36.2

36.8

40.9

EPS - statutory (p)

 

 

13.2

20.8

13.4

14.1

23.9

13.5

18.6

28.6

24.4

33.0

Dividend per share (p)

 

 

5.6

6.6

7.2

7.8

8.4

3.1

8.2

9.0

9.8

10.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Margin (%)

 

 

N/A

N/A

36.7

36.5

37.5

36.4

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

EBITDA Margin (%)

 

 

10.9

11.9

11.7

11.6

12.8

11.3

12.3

11.6

12.2

12.7

Op Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

 

 

8.2

9.5

9.3

9.4

10.8

9.4

10.7

10.4

10.8

11.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed Assets

 

 

78.3

93.4

98.8

147.9

138.0

150.8

141.2

140.9

211.5

211.4

Intangible Assets

 

 

26.9

44.7

44.8

98.9

94.9

96.5

93.6

89.9

155.2

151.5

Tangible Assets

 

 

37.6

38.2

43.0

45.0

42.3

49.6

47.6

51.1

56.4

59.9

Other Fixed Assets

 

 

13.8

10.5

11.0

4.0

0.8

4.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Assets

 

 

100.4

119.4

165.3

165.1

169.5

188.7

171.0

201.8

227.7

255.0

Stocks

 

 

52.2

60.1

70.3

74.9

79.5

78.9

78.1

93.4

103.0

110.9

Debtors

 

 

42.6

53.4

57.5

64.4

62.8

62.5

64.6

75.6

83.3

89.2

Cash

 

 

5.6

5.9

37.5

25.8

27.2

47.3

28.3

32.8

41.3

54.9

Current Liabilities

 

 

(60.0)

(67.6)

(105.7)

(89.8)

(85.1)

(79.2)

(104.1)

(112.1)

(118.1)

(125.6)

Creditors

 

 

(58.6)

(64.8)

(74.8)

(81.3)

(81.3)

(79.1)

(104.1)

(112.1)

(118.1)

(125.6)

Short term borrowings

 

 

(1.4)

(2.8)

(30.9)

(8.5)

(3.8)

(0.1)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(67.4)

(97.6)

(101.8)

(118.6)

(96.7)

(155.9)

(59.7)

(55.5)

(114.2)

(112.9)

Long term borrowings

 

 

(18.4)

(35.6)

(29.8)

(64.4)

(58.4)

(83.6)

(17.8)

(25.8)

(87.8)

(87.8)

Other long term liabilities

 

 

(49.0)

(62.0)

(72.0)

(54.2)

(38.3)

(72.3)

(41.9)

(29.7)

(26.4)

(25.1)

Net Assets

 

 

51.3

47.6

56.6

104.6

125.7

104.4

148.4

175.1

206.9

227.9

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CASH FLOW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

16.2

18.5

25.5

23.5

35.3

34.8

60.0

29.3

44.6

52.4

Net Interest

 

 

(1.3)

(0.9)

(0.9)

(1.1)

(1.8)

(3.5)

(3.2)

(2.4)

(4.3)

(4.5)

Tax

 

 

(0.5)

(1.0)

(1.9)

(4.9)

(4.6)

(5.3)

(3.5)

(7.5)

(9.0)

(10.4)

Capex

 

 

(1.4)

(6.6)

(8.0)

(7.7)

(5.5)

(4.8)

(2.8)

(9.0)

(9.3)

(9.8)

Acquisitions/disposals

 

 

3.3

(23.6)

(2.7)

(59.1)

(2.1)

(9.2)

0.0

0.0

(80.0)

0.0

Financing

 

 

0.2

0.1

0.0

30.1

(0.9)

(0.8)

0.3

(0.8)

17.2

(0.8)

Dividends

 

 

(3.1)

(3.6)

(4.2)

(5.0)

(6.4)

(7.0)

0.0

(9.1)

(8.2)

(8.9)

Net Cash Flow

 

 

13.4

(17.1)

7.9

(24.2)

14.0

4.2

50.8

0.5

(49.0)

18.0

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

27.4

14.2

32.5

23.2

47.1

35.0

36.4

(10.5)

(7.0)

46.5

IFRS16 Finance leases

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(3.8)

(4.3)

(4.0)

(4.5)

(4.5)

Other

 

 

(0.2)

(1.2)

1.4

0.3

(1.9)

(1.8)

0.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

14.2

32.5

23.2

47.1

35.0

36.4

(10.5)

(7.0)

46.5

32.9

IFRS16 lease liabilities

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(25.1)

(24.2)

(23.7)

(23.7)

(23.7)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

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This report has been commissioned by Norcros and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Norcros. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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This report has been commissioned by Norcros and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Norcros. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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