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▲ 2.20 (1.83%)
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NOK4,203m
Ultimovacs reported further positive data from its ongoing Phase I (NCT03538314) study, UV1-103. The trial is investigating UV1 in combination with immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) pembrolizumab in patients (n=30) with advanced unresectable and metastatic malignant melanoma. The latest results have shown that patients with low levels of programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) exhibited robust clinical efficacy when treated with the UV1 combination. Patients with lower levels of PD-L1 are often less responsive to treatment with ICI monotherapies, so this result is highly encouraging for the clinical utility of UV1, in our view. Additionally, it potentially broadens UV1’s addressable patient population into harder-to-treat cancers, providing further opportunity for Ultimovacs’ lead cancer vaccine candidate. We value Ultimovacs at NOK7.2bn or NOK209/share.
Ultimovacs |
Biomarker insight into UV1 combination |
Clinical trial update |
Pharma and biotech |
18 October 2022 |
Share price performance Business description
Analysts
Ultimovacs is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
Ultimovacs reported further positive data from its ongoing Phase I (NCT03538314) study, UV1-103. The trial is investigating UV1 in combination with immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) pembrolizumab in patients (n=30) with advanced unresectable and metastatic malignant melanoma. The latest results have shown that patients with low levels of programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) exhibited robust clinical efficacy when treated with the UV1 combination. Patients with lower levels of PD-L1 are often less responsive to treatment with ICI monotherapies, so this result is highly encouraging for the clinical utility of UV1, in our view. Additionally, it potentially broadens UV1’s addressable patient population into harder-to-treat cancers, providing further opportunity for Ultimovacs’ lead cancer vaccine candidate. We value Ultimovacs at NOK7.2bn or NOK209/share.
Year end |
Revenue |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/20 |
0.0 |
(120.6) |
(3.98) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/21 |
0.0 |
(164.7) |
(5.09) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/22e |
0.0 |
(213.5) |
(6.24) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/23e |
0.0 |
(219.1) |
(6.40) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
The UV1-103 trial continues to be a significant study, providing key insights into patient responses and potentially guiding the future direction of UV1 in the clinic. The study has so far generated positive safety, efficacy and, recently, highly encouraging long-term survival data; three-year overall survival of 71% (12/17) was recorded in patients from cohort one of the study.
While ICIs have had a significant impact on the oncology therapeutic landscape, a broad scope of patients experience poor responses to treatment, with response rates ranging from 15% to 30% in solid tumours and 45% to 60% in melanomas. This becomes even more challenging in patients with lower levels of PD-L1, so this latest result for UV1 is a significant indicator of the vaccine’s clinical efficacy over treatment with ICIs alone, in our view.
In addition to PD-L1 levels, four other key prognostic biomarkers were assessed: baseline tumour mutational burden (TMB), predicted neoantigens, interferon gamma (IFN-gamma) gene signature and levels of tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes. Responses were observed in patients with low TMB, low neoantigens and low levels of IFN-gamma. These patient subpopulations have previously exhibited poorer responses to pembrolizumab monotherapy. Responsive patients also did not have elevated levels of tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes (immune cells) prior to treatment. indicating UV1’s ability to boost immune response.
This latest data again justify our view that cancer vaccines, in combination with ICIs, will form an important part of the next generation of oncology combination treatment regimes.
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Endeavour’s Q322 results are scheduled for release on 10 November. In the wake of the quarter’s end, we have refined our earnings forecasts to reflect a lower gold price in both Q3 (US$1,727/oz cf US$1,763/oz previously – down 2.0%) and Q4 (US$1,669/oz cf US$1,776/oz previously – down 6.0%) as well as some of the habitual disruption to operations that typically occur in Q3 on account of the seasonal rains in West Africa. In the meantime, Endeavour has announced the go-ahead of its Lafigué project and we understand the company remains essentially unaffected by recent political developments in Burkina Faso.
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