China: Growth aided by exports while consumer sentiment remains muted
China’s GDP growth (according to official statistics, which we acknowledge are not
fully reliable) reached the government target of 5% in 2025, driven by a record-high
trade surplus of close to $1.2tn, despite the tariff war last year. The Chinese government’s
emphasis on investment in the industrial sector in recent years stimulated an expansion
in production capacity and in turn a drive towards foreign markets outside the US.
However, some trading partners started pushing back on the growing imports from China
(eg Mexico introduced tariffs on a significant number of goods from outside its trade
agreements, including China), and we note the potential headwinds to exports from
the recent moderate strengthening of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar. Manufacturing
investments grew only marginally by 0.6% y-o-y in 2025, and total fixed-asset investments
declined by 3.8%, primarily due to a 17.2% y-o-y decline in real estate development
investment, with infrastructure investment down 2.2%. That said, we acknowledge that
China’s future economic growth may be supported by the government’s continued focus
on industrial upgrades and advanced technologies (so-called ‘new productive forces’)
to broaden the drivers of growth beyond domestic consumption, building on its strong
position in areas such as electric vehicles, battery technology and solar panels.
Meanwhile, weak private consumption (retail sales were up by a mere 0.9% y-o-y in
December 2025) continues to act as a restraint to growth, contributing to the slowdown
in GDP growth to 4.8% in Q325 and 4.5% in Q425, and has resulted in deflationary pressure.
Chinese consumer confidence has not recovered after the COVID re-opening in early
2023 (despite measures introduced by the government to boost consumption), dampened
by the downturn in property markets. The silver lining to this is the high savings
rate of Chinese households (32.0% in 2025 and 31.7% in 2024) coupled with rising disposal
income (by 5% in 2025), resulting in a substantial stock of bank deposits, which may
support a rebound in consumer spending at some stage.
IAD’s managers positioned the portfolio to a recovery in consumer spending when China
re-opened post COVID as part of their broader pursuit of returns from the long-term
potential of China, India and South-East Asia in terms of consumption growth on the
back of rising income and an expanding middle class. IAD subsequently reduced its
overweight position to Hong Kong and China, but its exposure remains partly positioned
to the consumer, with a mix of large internet companies and consumer-related stocks
(including online businesses); major holdings include Tencent, Alibaba, NetEase, AIA
Group and JD.com.
IAD’s managers believe that agile Chinese companies can adapt to changing consumer
habits, while overall sentiment in Hong Kong has been recovering amid clear policy
support from China to sustain Hong Kong’s position as an important global financial
hub. Accordingly, they added exposure to what they consider better quality consumer
stocks, such as hotel operator H World and China Resources Beer, while taking some
profits from previous outperformers such as MINTH and NetEase. IAD’s sector weightings
to consumer discretionary and consumer staples across its entire portfolio at end-2025
were 13.3% and 6.9%, respectively, compared to 12.8% and 2.9% for its benchmark.
Based on the latest available portfolio breakdown (as of end-November 2025), IAD’s
major exposures to the property sector in China and Hong Kong were limited to CK Asset
Holdings (1.66% of the portfolio), Sands China (1.63%) and Link Real Estate (0.94%).
South Korea: Progress in ‘Corporate Value-Up’ but rally driven mostly by AI
IAD’s managers believe that the corporate governance reforms and improvements in dividend
payouts in South Korea have not been fully reflected in local valuations. The government
aims to improve the appeal of local equities through reforms to corporate governance
and enhanced distributions to shareholders via the ‘Corporate Value-Up’ programme
(announced in early 2024), inspired by the recent success in Japan. As part of this
programme, the Korean Stock Exchange launched the Korea Value-Up Index consisting
of companies that satisfy several quantitative criteria related to profitability,
shareholder return (dividend payout/treasury stock cancellation) and high P/BV and
return on equity relative to industry, among others. As of end-November 2025, KRW1.1trn
(c $750m) of assets across 13 ETFs was tracking the index.
There has been tangible progress on the ‘Corporate Value-Up’ programme in the last
12 months, restoring market confidence after the turbulent 2024 marked by the previous
president’s declaration of martial law (which was quickly withdrawn) and subsequent
impeachment. The programme was reinforced by Commercial Act reforms aimed at strengthening
minority shareholder protections, including expanding duties of directors, and tightening
the election mechanics for the board and audit committee. Moreover, the Korean Stock
Exchange released proposed selection criteria for Corporate Value-Up Best Practice
Companies in February 2025 to encourage listed companies to participate.
One important obstacle to corporate governance reforms remains the high inheritance
tax, which encourages families owning South Korea’s large conglomerates to suppress
their valuation upon generational change in ownership. Still, the number of companies
that disclosed Value-Up plans reached 170 as of end-November 2025, and buyback and
cancellations reached record-high levels of KRW20.1tn and KRW21.4tn in 2025, up 6.9%
and 54% y-o-y respectively (and both figures more than doubled vs 2023). Dividend
payments were also up, by c 11% y-o-y. We note that a number of IAD’s current South
Korean holdings are constituents of the Value-Up Index: Samsung Electronics, Samsung
Fire & Marine, KB Financial Group and Hyundai Motor.
While South Korea was the top-performing equity market in the region in 2025 (up c
80% in sterling terms), this was only partly driven by the corporate governance reforms,
and tech companies exposed to AI were the major contributor, with some further positive
impact from industrial companies related to defence, nuclear energy and infrastructure.
Despite the strong rally, the so-called ‘South Korean discount’ has not disappeared
yet, as seen in Exhibit 9 above, with the majority of stocks traded below book value, according to IAD’s managers.