Destiny Pharma — Well-funded with clinical results in a year

Destiny Pharma — Well-funded with clinical results in a year

Destiny Pharma’s imminent Phase IIb study start dominated the FY18 results announcement. The US Phase IIb study of XF-73 is open and recruiting with results expected around YE19. Destiny’s operating loss increased to £6.1m (vs £3.2m in FY17) with R&D costs of £3.5m (vs £0.4m in FY17) comprising the majority of operational expense. Cash at the end of FY18 was £12.1m, which gives Destiny a runway well into 2020.

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Written by

Destiny Pharma

Well-funded with clinical results in a year

FY18 results

Pharma & biotech

11 April 2019

Price

84p

Market cap

£37m

$1.29/£

Net cash (£m) as at 31 December 2018

12.1

Shares in issue

43.6m

Free float

92.7%

Code

DEST

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

15.1

31.3

(31.7)

Rel (local)

10.2

31.2

(33.7)

52-week high/low

129p

62p

Business description

Destiny Pharma is dedicated to the discovery, development and commercialisation of new antimicrobial agents that have unique properties to improve outcomes for patients. Destiny’s first product, XF-73, has started a US Phase IIb clinical study.

Next events

US Phase IIb XF-73 study updates

H219

H119 interims

October 2019

Final US Phase IIb study results

Q419/Q120

Analyst

Andy Smith

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Destiny Pharma is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Destiny Pharma’s imminent Phase IIb study start dominated the FY18 results announcement. The US Phase IIb study of XF-73 is open and recruiting with results expected around YE19. Destiny’s operating loss increased to £6.1m (vs £3.2m in FY17) with R&D costs of £3.5m (vs £0.4m in FY17) comprising the majority of operational expense. Cash at the end of FY18 was £12.1m, which gives Destiny a runway well into 2020.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/17

0.0

(3.21)

(8.45)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/18

0.0

(6.01)

(11.86)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/19e

0.3

(8.51)

(17.69)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/20e

0.0

(4.68)

(7.06)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are as reported.

FY18 results: Building up to Phase IIb results

Destiny’s preparations for its US Phase IIb study have driven its FY18 results, with total operating expenses of £6.1m (£3.2m in FY17), which was driven by R&D costs of £3.5m and £1.8m in SG&A (£0.4m and £1.0m in FY17, respectively). This was lower than our previous FY18 total operating expense and R&D cost estimates of £6.8m and £4.7m, respectively. Cash at the end of FY18 was £12.1m (vs £16.7m at end FY17 and £15.1m at the end of H118), higher than our £11.5m estimate. We estimate Destiny has enough financial resources to last well into 2020, by which time we expect the Phase IIb study to have reported and XF-73 to have been partnered in a transaction that we have assumed will be accompanied by at least a $10m upfront payment.

Phase II study funded and well on track

Destiny has the financial resources to execute the Phase IIb study, a supportive Chinese partner and shareholder in China Medical Systems and the latitude to invest in its early-stage pipeline. The latter attracted £1.8m in grant funding during FY18 and Q119. The first of 200 patients will soon be dosed in the US clinical study of its novel antimicrobial agent XF-73 for the prevention of post-surgical infections. As well as being potentially the only product that would be approved for this preventative indication, XF-73 is also expected to be cheaper to manufacture than the off-label generic competition (should mupirocin calcium generics become available) but without mupirocin’s antimicrobial resistance (AMR) issues. Clinical studies recruiting on schedule usually means motivated investigators, which are probably bolstered by the high-profile AMR debate, and no shortage of patients.

Valuation: Virtually unchanged

We have updated our valuation for exchange rates and the cash balance at YE18 (which is mostly obviated by moving the risk-adjusted NPV calculation forward a year). We have also increased our expectations for XF-73 in China. Our valuation moves slightly from £86.7m or £1.99 per share to £86.2m or £1.98 per share, mostly due to foreign exchange rates and a slightly lower cash balance.

More to Destiny than XF-73

Beyond the Phase IIb study

For the next year, much of the focus of investors’ attention is likely to be on Destiny’s most advanced asset, XF-73, and its US Phase IIb placebo-controlled clinical study in the prevention of post-surgical infections. Since its IPO, Destiny has kept its promises on the Phase IIb study, and in addition, it has been expanding its earlier-stage pipeline in commercial and academic collaborations, which have, in part, been grant-funded.

Ophthalmic and dermal indicators

Destiny’s most recent announcement was on a commercial collaboration with MedPharm aimed at developing topical and transdermal formulations for the XF-series of antimicrobials for ocular and dermal indications like bacterial conjunctivitis and diabetic foot ulcers, respectively. This most recent announcement is linked to Destiny’s previous award of a two-year £1.6m UK-China AMR grant earlier in 2019. The collaboration is being conducted with Cardiff and Tianjin Medical universities and directed at treating resistant bacteria using Destiny’s novel antimicrobial agents. While the ongoing US Phase IIb study is being conducted with the nasal gel formulation, decolonisation in the nose requires a formulation that will not irritate mucous membranes and this should be different from the formulations needed to treat dermal and ocular indications.

Biofilm indicators

At the start of 2019 Destiny announced the receipt of a joint National Biofilms Innovation Centre grant award with the University of Southampton to investigate the use of Destiny’s XF-series of antimicrobial agents to prevent, control and eradicate chronic clinical infections with an underlying biofilm involvement. This collaboration is linked to an earlier three-year research collaboration that started in July 2018 with Aston University on the XF-series of antimicrobials where antibacterial activity in biofilm models has already been demonstrated.

These types of infections involving biofilms include cystic fibrosis. Cystic fibrosis and associated lung indications are a particularly high unmet need with well-defined endpoints that regulators understand and we will be exploring this in more detail in a later note.

Valuation

A recent study published by UBS using data from the IQVIA prescription audit in China examined the transition of Roche’s Avastin (bevacizumab) from limited use in the private sector, to access to the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL). For Avastin, access to the NRDL was associated with a 50% price cut, but a 300% increase in volumes, which resulted in about a 3.5-fold increase in Avastin revenues. Access to the NRDL is not immediate in China and can take four to five years so we have replicated the Avastin dynamics in our forecasts for XF-73 in China and have deleted the gross-to-net discounts we had previously applied from five years after launch. Our peak sales estimates for XF-73 in China increase from $24m to $62m in 2032, although our worldwide XF-73 sales peak at $2.1bn in 2028.

This change to XF-73’s sales in China results in a modest c 1% increase to our rNPV before the changes we made to exchange rates, which were also minor, and Destiny’s cash balance updated to the end of FY18.

FY18 financials

Despite Destiny’s investment in its imminent US Phase IIb study, the FY18 total operating expense of £6.1m (£3.2m in FY17) was below our £6.8m estimate. Part of this lower operating expense than we had estimated was due to grant funding of its earlier-stage pipeline, which will have resulted in £1.8m being announced and recognised between FY18 and Q119, and the R&D tax credit of £0.84m. These contributed to Destiny’s FY18 loss per share of 11.9p (8.45p per share in FY17) being lower than our previous estimate of 14.3p per share.

Destiny’s YE18 cash was £12.1m (vs £16.7m at YE17 and £15.1m at the end of H118), which exceed our previous £11.5m estimate. Destiny believes that it has enough financial resources to last well into 2020, which, with the Phase IIb study reading-out either late in 2019 or early in Q120, should be enough to carry Destiny through to its key inflection points in 2020.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

Accounts: IFRS; year end 31 December; £000s

 

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

2021e

INCOME STATEMENT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total revenues

 

 

-

-

250

-

-

Cost of sales

 

 

-

-

-

-

-

Gross profit

 

 

-

-

250

-

-

SG&A (expenses)

 

 

(1,011)

(1,800)

(1,900)

(1,700)

(1,700)

R&D costs

 

 

(387)

(3,546)

(6,900)

(3,000)

(1,900)

Other income/(expense)

 

 

(613)

-

-

-

-

Exceptionals and adjustments

 

(710)

(738)

(85)

(25)

(25)

Depreciation and amortisation

 

 

(2.1)

(3.9)

(2.3)

(2.3)

(2.4)

Reported EBIT

 

 

(3,222)

(6,084)

(8,637)

(4,727)

(3,627)

Finance income/(expense)

 

 

10.5

76.0

132.7

52.4

94.0

Reported PBT

 

 

(3,211)

(6,008)

(8,505)

(4,675)

(3,533)

Income tax expense (includes exceptionals)

 

 

234

841

800

1,600

678

Reported net income

 

 

(2,977)

(5,167)

(7,705)

(3,075)

(2,855)

Basic average number of shares, m

 

 

35,254

43,563

43,563

43,563

43,563

Basic EPS (p)

 

 

(8.45)

(11.86)

(17.69)

(7.06)

(6.55)

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Property, plant and equipment

 

 

22.3

30.4

28.6

26.7

24.8

Goodwill

 

 

-

-

-

-

-

Intangible assets

 

 

-

-

-

-

-

Other non-current assets

 

 

-

-

-

-

-

Total non-current assets

 

 

22.3

30.4

28.6

26.7

24.8

Cash and equivalents

 

 

11,724

7,061

759

4,549

1,720

Other financial assets (term deposits)

 

 

5,000

5,000

4,000

4,000

4,000

Inventories

 

 

-

-

-

-

-

Trade and other receivables

 

 

277

931

466

277

277

Other current assets

 

 

60

36

36

36

36

Total current assets

 

 

17,061

13,028

5,261

8,862

6,034

Non-current loans and borrowings

 

 

-

-

-

7,752

7,752

Other non-current liabilities

 

 

-

-

-

-

-

Total non-current liabilities

 

 

-

-

-

7,752

7,752

Trade and other payables

 

 

152

404

255

152

152

Current loans and borrowings

 

 

-

-

-

-

-

Other current liabilities

 

 

246

398

246

246

246

Total current liabilities

 

 

397

802

501

397

397

Equity attributable to company

 

 

16,686

12,257

4,637

1,587

(1,243)

Non-controlling interest

 

 

-

-

-

-

-

CASH FLOW STATEMENT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Profit for the year

 

 

(3,211)

(6,008)

(8,505)

(4,675)

(3,533)

Taxation expenses

 

 

-

-

-

-

-

Profit before tax

 

 

(3,211)

(6,008)

(8,505)

(4,675)

(3,533)

Net finance expenses

 

 

(10)

(76)

(133)

(52)

(94)

EBIT

 

 

(3,222)

(6,084)

(8,637)

(4,727)

(3,627)

Depreciation and amortisation

 

 

2.1

9.7

2.3

2.3

2.4

Share based payments

 

 

710

738

85

25

25

Other adjustments

 

 

-

-

-

-

-

Movements in working capital

 

 

165

381

316

85

-

Interest paid / received

 

 

-

-

-

-

-

Income taxes paid

 

 

192

234

800

1,600

678

Cash from operations (CFO)

 

 

(2,153)

(4,721)

(7,434)

(3,015)

(2,922)

Capex

 

 

(23.2)

(17.8)

(0.5)

(0.5)

(0.5)

Acquisitions & disposals net

 

 

-

-

-

-

-

Other investing activities

 

 

(4,990)

76

133

52

94

Cash used in investing activities (CFIA)

 

 

(5,013)

58.2

132.2

51.9

93.6

Net proceeds from issue of shares

 

 

17,409

-

-

-

-

Movements in debt

 

 

-

-

-

7,752

-

Dividends paid

 

 

-

-

-

-

-

Other financing activities

 

 

-

-

-

-

-

Cash from financing activities (CFF)

 

 

17,409

-

-

7,752

-

Currency translation differences and other

 

 

-

-

-

-

-

Increase/(decrease) in cash and equivalents

 

 

10,243

(4,663)

(7,301)

4,789

(2,828)

Currency translation differences and other

 

 

-

-

-

-

-

Cash and equivalents at end of period

 

 

11,724

7,061

(241)

5,549

1,720

Net (debt)/cash (includes Term Deposits)

 

 

16,724

12,061

4,759

797

(2,032)

Movement in net (debt)/cash over period

 

 

15,243

(4,663)

(7,301)

(3,963)

(2,828)

Source: Destiny Pharma accounts, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Destiny Pharma and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Destiny Pharma. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

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London, WC1V 7EE

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New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

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Level 4, Office 1205

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Destiny Pharma and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Destiny Pharma. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 427484). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a) (11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

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Shore Capital Group — Counter-cyclical investment strengthens the group

Shore Capital’s (SGR’s) 2018 results were close to expectation and had a number of features that are encouraging for the future. Although Capital Markets revenue was lower reflecting the weak market in the final quarter, corporate retainers and transaction fees were up, while the market-making activity remained profitable through Q4. Asset Management made strong progress with revenue growth of over 20%. Selective counter-cyclical investment meant lower pre-tax profit but, like the purchase of Stockdale at a difficult time in the market, should help generate stronger growth and returns on equity on a medium-term view.

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