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Upgrading revenue forecasts

Treatt 12 May 2022 Update
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Treatt

Upgrading revenue forecasts

H122 results

Food & beverages

12 May 2022

Price

801p

Market cap

£480m

Net debt (£m) at 31 March 2022

19.8

Shares in issue

60.1m

Free float

100%

Code

TET

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(30.7)

(21.5)

(25.1)

Rel (local)

(27.7)

(17.1)

(26.9)

52-week high/low

1,315p

801p

Business description

Treatt provides innovative ingredient solutions from its manufacturing bases in Europe and North America, principally for the flavours and fragrance industries and multinational consumer goods companies, with particular emphasis on the beverage sector.

Next events

Capital markets day

27 May 2022

FY22 trading update

early October 2022

FY22 results

29 November 2022

Analysts

Sara Welford

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Russell Pointon

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Treatt is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Treatt has witnessed another good performance: H1 revenue grew by an impressive 9%, with growth across five of Treatt’s six categories. Management has upgraded its revenue growth expectations for the year to 15% and sees pre-tax profit being on track to meet current consensus of £21.7m, as the company continues to invest for the future. We upgrade our revenue forecasts in line with guidance, though our profit forecasts remain broadly unchanged. As per previous guidance, H2 is expected to witness both higher revenue growth than H1 and higher margins, thus reverting to a more normal H1/H2 split following two years distorted by the consequences of lockdowns.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

09/20

109.0

15.8

21.3

6.0

37.6

0.7

09/21

124.3

22.7

30.1

7.5

26.6

0.9

09/22e

143.0

24.0

32.1

8.0

25.0

1.0

09/23e

151.6

25.9

34.2

8.5

23.4

1.1

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Strong demand

Strong demand has been driven by Treatt’s core citrus category (+15% y-o-y), where more sophisticated, higher-value offerings are continuing to drive growth. Revenue growth was also strong in both synthetic aroma (+20% y-o-y), and herbs, spices & florals (+23% y-o-y), in part driven by higher demand for flavourings in the alternative protein segment. Tea (revenues down 41% vs H121) was adversely affected by the timing of launches in the prior year causing a particularly tough comparative, and a recovery is expected by management in H2. Crucially, H1 has ended strongly and the momentum has continued into H2, with stronger growth expected to come from the higher-margin healthier living categories. We therefore expect margins to be materially stronger in H2.

H122 results

H122 revenues were up 9.0% to £66.3m, with growth in most categories. Gross margins were down 750bps on the prior year, but up 130bps versus H120, which was mostly unaffected by the pandemic. Adjusted PBT was £6.3m, versus £10.4m in H121 and £6.1m in H120. We raise our sales forecasts by 6% for FY22–24, though our profit forecasts are broadly unchanged.

Valuation: Trading at a premium to peers

We estimate that the current share price is discounting medium-term sales growth of 5.0%, falling to 1.5% in perpetuity, with a WACC of 5.7% and a terminal EBIT margin of 20.0% (vs 17.2% in FY21). Our earnings estimates remain broadly unchanged following the announcement. Treatt trades at 25.0x FY22e P/E and 16.9x FY22e EV/EBITDA. It trades at a c 10% discount to its peer group on a P/E basis and a 5% discount on EV/EBITDA, although it trades broadly at a c20% discount on both metrics if we exclude those peers that are more exposed to lower-margin, commoditised products.

Forecasts

In light of the current trading trends discussed above, we raise our revenue forecasts for FY22–24 as detailed in Exhibit 1. We leave our growth assumptions for FY23 and FY24 unchanged, but absolute revenue forecasts increase due to the higher base. As discussed above, we believe margins are likely to be lower than we had previously forecast given the continued investment in the business, and we therefore leave our profit forecasts broadly unchanged.

We have increased our working capital outflow forecast for the year in light of the unusually strong outflows in H122, which reflected inventory builds to meet the strong pipeline of orders and generally higher raw material prices, most particularly for orange oil. We continue to expect that Treatt will experience the usual cash inflow during H2. We now expect net debt of c £8m for FY22, versus a net debt balance of £19.8m at end H122 and £9.1m at end FY21.

Exhibit 1: Old vs new key forecasts

2022

2023

2024

Old

New

Diff

Old

New

Diff

Old

New

Diff

Revenue (£000)

134,894

142,975

6.0%

142,987

151,553

6.0%

151,567

160,647

6.0%

Operating profit (£000)

22,014

21,974

-0.2%

23,764

23,747

-0.1%

25,644

25,654

0.0%

PBT* (£000)

21,993

21,927

-0.3%

23,796

23,725

-0.3%

25,728

25,685

21,993

PBT (pre-exceptional) Edison (£000)

24,050

23,978

-0.3%

25,974

25,896

-0.3%

28,037

27,990

24,050

Basic EPS* (p)

28.8

28.7

-0.3%

30.7

30.6

-0.3%

32.7

32.7

28.8

Basic EPS (pre-exceptional) Edison (p)

32.2

32.1

-0.3%

34.3

34.2

-0.3%

36.6

36.5

32.2

Net debt/(cash) (£000)

(2,641)

7,989

N/A

(12,499)

(1,170)

N/A

(23,067)

(13,023)

N/A

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Stated on an IFRS/reported basis.

Valuation

We illustrate Treatt’s relative valuation versus its ingredients peer group in Exhibit 2 below. For 2022, based on Edison estimates, Treatt trades at a c 10% discount to its peer group on a P/E basis and a 5% discount on an EV/EBITDA basis, though we note Kerry and Ingredion have a larger proportion of lower-margin products in their portfolios. If we exclude Kerry and Ingredion, Treatt is trading at a c20% discount to its remaining peers on both P/E and EV/EBITDA. Although it is smaller than its peers, its portfolio of products is increasingly specialised and the company has demonstrated its resilience with a robust performance despite the pandemic.

Exhibit 2: Comparative valuation

Market cap
(m)

P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

Dividend yield (%)

2022e

2023e

2022e

2023e

2022e

2023e

Givaudan

CHF 32,502

35.3

31.5

24.1

22.3

1.9

2.0

IFF

$32,619

22.1

19.5

17.1

15.4

2.4

2.5

Symrise

CHF 14,138

32.9

29.1

17.6

16.2

1.1

1.2

Chr Hansen

DKK 69,238

39.5

35.0

23.8

21.7

1.6

1.8

Kerry

€ 17,390

23.3

21.0

16.6

15.2

1.0

1.2

Ingredion

$5,749

12.2

11.2

7.8

7.5

3.0

3.1

Peer group average

27.6

24.5

17.8

16.4

1.9

2.0

Treatt

£482

25.0

23.4

16.9

15.8

1.0

1.1

Premium/(discount) to peer group (%)

(9.4%)

(4.5%)

(5.0%)

(3.2%)

(46.8%)

(46.4%)

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Prices as of 11 May 2022.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

£000s

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022e

2023e

2024e

Year-end September

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

112,163

112,717

109,016

124,326

142,975

151,553

160,647

Cost of Sales

(84,407)

(84,060)

(77,140)

(82,103)

(94,847)

(100,084)

(105,607)

Gross Profit

27,756

28,657

31,876

42,223

48,128

51,470

55,040

EBITDA

 

 

16,627

15,785

17,862

24,877

28,976

30,960

33,036

Operating Profit (before amort., except and sbp)

 

 

15,108

14,226

16,053

23,172

24,026

25,918

27,959

Intangible Amortisation

(124)

(90)

(75)

(93)

(79)

(67)

(57)

Share based payments

(1,040)

(637)

(886)

(1,733)

(1,973)

(2,104)

(2,248)

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

13,944

13,499

15,092

21,346

21,974

23,747

25,654

Net Interest

(1,302)

(199)

(291)

(427)

(48)

(22)

30

Exceptionals

(1,105)

(755)

(1,060)

(1,302)

0

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

13,806

14,027

15,762

22,745

23,978

25,896

27,990

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

11,537

12,545

13,741

19,617

21,927

23,725

25,685

Profit Before Tax (company)

 

 

12,642

13,300

14,801

20,919

21,927

23,725

25,685

Tax

(2,284)

(2,673)

(2,896)

(4,469)

(4,684)

(5,338)

(6,036)

Profit After Tax (norm)

11,392

11,263

12,762

18,090

19,294

20,558

21,954

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

9,253

9,872

10,845

15,148

17,242

18,387

19,649

Discontinued operations

2,976

(1,084)

0

0

0

0

0

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

56.8

59.1

59.8

60.1

60.1

60.1

60.1

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

20.1

19.0

21.3

30.1

32.1

34.2

36.5

EPS - adjusted (p)

 

 

18.0

17.8

19.7

27.1

28.7

30.6

32.7

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

16.3

16.7

18.1

25.2

28.7

30.6

32.7

Dividend per share (p)

5.1

5.5

6.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.1

Gross Margin (%)

24.7

25.4

29.2

34.0

33.7

34.0

34.3

EBITDA Margin (%)

14.8

14.0

16.4

20.0

20.3

20.4

20.6

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

13.5

12.6

14.7

18.6

16.8

17.1

17.4

Operating Margin (%)

12.4

12.0

13.8

17.2

15.4

15.7

16.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

21,863

31,730

54,048

65,811

66,370

68,534

68,810

Intangible Assets

752

845

1,358

2,424

2,345

2,278

2,221

Tangible Assets

20,038

29,485

50,159

61,039

63,233

65,464

65,798

Investments

1,073

1,400

2,531

2,348

792

792

792

Current Assets

 

 

102,401

98,158

69,472

83,606

95,349

94,089

111,036

Stocks

39,642

36,799

36,050

47,263

57,905

61,076

64,419

Debtors

28,828

23,020

24,167

26,371

30,184

31,843

33,593

Cash

32,304

37,187

7,739

7,260

7,260

7,260

13,023

Other

1,627

1,152

1,516

2,712

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(35,781)

(28,905)

(15,989)

(30,460)

(30,918)

(21,196)

(21,620)

Creditors

(16,479)

(11,784)

(12,640)

(17,620)

(20,609)

(21,053)

(21,477)

Short term borrowings

(19,244)

(16,860)

(3,203)

(12,697)

(10,166)

(4,060)

0

Provisions

(58)

(261)

(146)

(143)

(143)

(143)

(143)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(6,858)

(13,876)

(16,411)

(11,605)

(15,064)

(12,011)

(9,981)

Long term borrowings

(3,001)

(4,369)

(3,450)

(2,624)

(5,083)

(2,030)

0

Other long-term liabilities

(3,857)

(9,507)

(12,961)

(8,981)

(9,981)

(9,981)

(9,981)

Net Assets

 

 

81,625

87,107

91,120

107,352

115,736

131,446

148,245

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

3,580

20,544

15,677

13,892

17,511

26,573

28,367

Net Interest

(609)

(199)

(191)

(270)

(48)

(22)

30

Tax

(2,978)

(2,208)

(2,191)

(4,874)

(4,684)

(5,338)

(6,036)

Capex

(6,190)

(10,392)

(23,909)

(13,195)

(7,145)

(7,273)

(5,410)

Acquisitions/disposals

8,357

855

(1,041)

(1,178)

0

0

0

Financing

21,090

622

(69)

(212)

0

0

0

Dividends

(2,876)

(3,080)

(3,378)

(3,704)

(4,509)

(4,781)

(5,098)

Net Cash Flow

20,374

6,142

(15,102)

(9,541)

1,125

9,159

11,854

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

10,225

(10,059)

(15,958)

(427)

9,114

7,989

(1,170)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

(90)

(243)

(429)

(0)

0

0

(0)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(10,059)

(15,958)

(427)

9,114

7,989

(1,170)

(13,023)

Source: Edison Investment Research, company data


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This report has been commissioned by Treatt and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Treatt. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

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This report has been commissioned by Treatt and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Treatt. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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