The Rockhopper (RKH)/Premier Oil (PMO) joint venture (JV) has submitted the preliminary information memorandum (PIM) to potential providers of senior debt project finance for the Sea Lion development. Submission of the PIM is supported by independent expert reports covering a range of technical, legal and tax aspects of the Sea Lion project. The JV views this as a material milestone and anticipates moving into detailed lender due diligence and documentation in Q419. In June, Italy’s request for the suspension of the Ombrina Mare arbitration was rejected. RKH is seeking significant monetary damages and an award is now expected in Q120. Confirmation of Sea Lion FID and a successful arbitration outcome for Ombrina Mare have the potential to close the gap between the current share price and our valuation. We continue to assume a Sea Lion phase 1 first oil date of mid-2024, with our risked valuation standing at 79.6p/share.
Written by
Rockhopper Exploration |
Two material events on the horizon |
PIM submitted |
Oil & gas |
7 August 2019 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Rockhopper Exploration is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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The Rockhopper (RKH)/Premier Oil (PMO) joint venture (JV) has submitted the preliminary information memorandum (PIM) to potential providers of senior debt project finance for the Sea Lion development. Submission of the PIM is supported by independent expert reports covering a range of technical, legal and tax aspects of the Sea Lion project. The JV views this as a material milestone and anticipates moving into detailed lender due diligence and documentation in Q419. In June, Italy's request for the suspension of the Ombrina Mare arbitration was rejected. RKH is seeking significant monetary damages and an award is now expected in Q120. Confirmation of Sea Lion FID and a successful arbitration outcome for Ombrina Mare have the potential to close the gap between the current share price and our valuation. We continue to assume a Sea Lion phase 1 first oil date of mid-2024, with our risked valuation standing at 79.6p/share.
Year end |
Revenue |
PBT* |
Cash from operations ($m) |
Net (debt)/ |
Capex |
12/17 |
10.4 |
(9.0) |
1.6 |
50.7 |
(26.8) |
12/18 |
10.6 |
(7.1) |
5.4 |
40.4 |
(15.8) |
12/19e |
10.7 |
(2.1) |
1.1 |
27.0 |
(24.0) |
12/20e |
2.2 |
(9.7) |
(0.2) |
22.4 |
(5.0) |
Note: *PBT normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **assumes capex ahead of first oil funded through RKH's share of project debt and PMO carry.
PIM a key milestone towards FID
Sea Lion PIM submission is material step forward for the project’s development and is a sign of commitment to it from both RKH and PMO. The JV has been engaging senior lenders and export credit agencies over the last 18 months and we understand the JV has been encouraged to make the submission at this time. The JV expects initial feedback on the PIM submission in Q419. The timeline for securing project finance and the Sea Lion final investment decision (FID) remains uncertain. We expect to revise our assumed mid-2024 Sea Lion first oil date in H219 once there is further visibility on funding.
Disposal consideration for Abu Sennan is in line
RKH has signed a sales purchase agreement (SPA) for the sale of its 22% interest in Abu Sennan, Egypt to United Oil & Gas for a total consideration of $16m. This is broadly in line with our last published valuation of the asset at $15.2m and above RKH’s net book value of $13.8m as of December 2018. The transaction is expected to complete during Q419 with an effective date of 1 January 2019.
Valuation: Market is heavily discounting Sea Lion
Our valuation suggests that the equity market continues to apply a c 20% chance of success (CoS) for Sea Lion Phase 1, which we believe is low considering the JV’s continued progress. Our broadly unchanged risked valuation stands at 79.6p/share based on a Sea Lion Phase 1 CoS of 55%. We provide sensitivities to Phase 1 CoS and will publish a more detailed review once funding has been secured.
Valuation
Our base case valuation remains broadly unchanged at 79.6p/share (from 78.9p/share). In our previously published note, we valued Abu Sennan at $15.2m ($17.6m on inclusion of associated cash and working capital). This is close to the $16m sales consideration implied by the transaction with United Oil & Gas. Our forecasts and NAV have been updated to reflect an effective transaction date of 31 December 2018 with completion expected in Q419.
We have not revised our Falklands valuation at this point with Sea Lion Phase 1 first oil assumed in mid-2024. We essentially include a one-year contingency over and above management’s guidance. We continue to base our valuation on a long-term oil price expectation of $70/bbl Brent from 2022.
NAV breakdown by asset
A full breakdown of our valuation by asset is provided in Exhibit 1 below, including a sensitivity to our underlying discount rate assumption of 12.5%.
Exhibit 1: Edison breakdown of Rockhopper NAV
Recoverable reserves |
Net risked value at 12.5% |
|||||||||||
WI |
CoS |
Gross |
Net |
NPV |
||||||||
Asset |
Country |
First oil |
% |
mmboe |
mmboe |
$/boe |
$m |
p/share |
10% |
15% |
20% |
|
Net cash at 31 December 2018 |
40 |
6.8 |
6.8 |
6.8 |
6.8 |
|||||||
SG&A (NPV12.5 of 5 years) |
(24) |
(4.1) |
(4.1) |
(4.1) |
(4.1) |
|||||||
Proceeds from Abu Sennan disposal |
16 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
|||||||
Production |
||||||||||||
Civita |
Italy |
100% |
100% |
0.1 |
0.1 |
(21.9) |
(1) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Guendalina |
Italy |
20% |
100% |
0.8 |
0.2 |
23.6 |
4 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
|
Development |
||||||||||||
Sea Lion Phase 1 |
Falkland Islands |
2024 |
40% |
55% |
220.6 |
88.3 |
5.3 |
258 |
43.6 |
58.6 |
32.3 |
17.1 |
Sea Lion Phase 2 in PL32 |
Falkland Islands |
2029 |
40% |
20% |
87.3 |
34.9 |
4.6 |
32 |
5.4 |
8.2 |
3.6 |
1.6 |
Sea Lion Phase 2 in PL04 |
Falkland Islands |
2029 |
64% |
20% |
213.7 |
136.8 |
4.6 |
126 |
21.2 |
32.0 |
14.0 |
6.1 |
Ombrina Mare - under arbitration* |
Italy |
20 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
||||||
Core NAV |
522.4 |
260.1 |
470 |
79.6 |
108.2 |
59.3 |
34.2 |
|||||
Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: Number of shares: 457.8m. *Based on 50% chance of recovering acquisition cost rather than risked recovery of loss of profit.
Rockhopper currently trades at 20.0p/share relative to our risked valuation of 79.6p/share. The equity market appears to be pricing in a materially more pessimistic view of Sea Lion Phase 1 and/or lower oil price expectations compared with our base case. The current share price suggests an implied chance of success of less than 20% for Phase 1 at $70/bbl or c 30% at $60/bbl. We believe the project is more likely to proceed than not (see our last published note for further details) hence our 55% commercial chance of success for Phase 1.
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Exhibit 2: Core assets and Sea Lion Phase 1 sensitivity |
Exhibit 3: Rockhopper NAV waterfall |
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Source: Edison Investment Research |
Source: Edison Investment Research |
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Exhibit 2: Core assets and Sea Lion Phase 1 sensitivity |
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Source: Edison Investment Research |
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Exhibit 3: Rockhopper NAV waterfall |
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Source: Edison Investment Research |
Financials: Sea Lion Phase 1 funding
Rockhopper ended FY18 with c $40m of cash on the balance sheet and no debt, in line with our estimates. With the disposal of Abu Sennan for a consideration of $16m, our forecast Italian asset capex and SG&A are covered for the next two years at c $5.4m pa. We believe Rockhopper is funded through to Sea Lion Phase 1 first oil given current operator estimates of capex (c $1.5bn gross through to first oil) and debt capacity. Funding for the project is expected to be split into vendor financing (c $375m), export credit/bank finance (c $750m) and upstream partner equity (c $375m).
In this note, we include FY21 financial forecasts for the first time.
Ombrina Mare arbitration
In March 2017, Rockhopper started international arbitration proceedings against the Republic of Italy in relation to the Ombrina Mare field it acquired from Mediterranean Oil & Gas. Rockhopper believes it has strong prospects of recovering ‘significant monetary damages’ based on lost profits as a result of the Republic of Italy’s breaches of the Energy Charter Treaty. We estimate this will be recoverable at c $20m on a risked basis in our valuation using a simplified approach, which assumes a 50% chance of recovering the associated acquisition costs. We have not carried out a loss of profits calculation but press reports suggest it could be materially higher, with the claim running up to €275m plus interest. Clearly, there is material upside to our valuation in the event of a damages award to Rockhopper. Indicatively, a $50m award to Rockhopper net of costs would be worth up to 8.5p/share to equity holders. On 26 June 2019, the tribunal rejected Italy’s request for the suspension of the arbitration and Italy’s intra-EU jurisdictional objections. Rockhopper expects a final outcome and potential damages award in Q120.
Exhibit 4: Financial summary
|
2017 |
2018 |
2019e |
2020e |
2021e |
|
Year-end: 31 December; USD: Thousands |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
|
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||
Total revenues** |
|
10,401 |
10,580 |
10,673 |
2,167 |
1,666 |
Cost of sales |
|
(9,573) |
(8,531) |
(5,111) |
(1,097) |
(772) |
Gross profit |
|
828 |
2,049 |
5,562 |
1,070 |
893 |
SG&A (expenses) |
|
(5,282) |
(5,386) |
(5,386) |
(5,386) |
(5,386) |
Other income/(expense) |
|
(3,422) |
(5,014) |
2,200 |
0 |
0 |
Exceptionals and adjustments |
|
(1,830) |
673 |
2,070 |
2,070 |
2,070 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Reported EBIT |
|
(9,706) |
(7,678) |
4,446 |
(2,246) |
(2,423) |
Finance income/(expense) |
|
783 |
825 |
634 |
573 |
238 |
Other income/(expense) |
|
(39) |
(253) |
(7,167) |
(8,063) |
(9,071) |
Exceptionals and adjustments |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Reported PBT |
|
(8,962) |
(7,106) |
(2,087) |
(9,736) |
(11,256) |
Income tax expense (includes exceptionals) |
|
2,823 |
(25) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Reported net income |
|
(6,139) |
(7,131) |
(2,087) |
(9,736) |
(11,256) |
Basic average number of shares, m |
|
457 |
457 |
457 |
457 |
457 |
Basic EPS |
|
(1.3) |
(1.6) |
(4.6) |
(21.3) |
(24.6) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Adjusted EBITDA |
|
(2,403) |
(4,383) |
5,175 |
(3,708) |
(4,037) |
Adjusted EBIT |
|
(13,349) |
(12,319) |
(423) |
(4,925) |
(4,949) |
Adjusted PBT |
|
(12,605) |
(11,747) |
(6,956) |
(12,414) |
(13,782) |
Adjusted EPS (c) |
|
(5) |
(1) |
(6) |
(18) |
(21) |
Adjusted diluted EPS (c) |
|
(5) |
(1) |
(6) |
(18) |
(21) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Balance sheet |
|
|||||
Property, plant and equipment |
|
11,585 |
11,836 |
16,036 |
20,732 |
69,476 |
Goodwill |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Intangible assets |
|
432,147 |
447,035 |
450,236 |
449,932 |
449,932 |
Other non-current assets |
|
10,789 |
10,308 |
15,308 |
15,308 |
15,308 |
Total non-current assets |
|
454,521 |
469,179 |
481,580 |
485,972 |
534,716 |
Cash and equivalents |
|
50,729 |
40,426 |
26,993 |
22,406 |
10,000 |
Inventories |
|
1,621 |
1,779 |
1,779 |
1,779 |
1,779 |
Trade and other receivables |
|
16,840 |
9,510 |
15,000 |
15,000 |
15,000 |
Other current assets |
|
4,354 |
568 |
568 |
568 |
568 |
Total current assets |
|
73,544 |
52,283 |
44,340 |
39,753 |
27,347 |
Non-current loans and borrowings |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
37,045 |
Other non-current liabilities |
|
85,245 |
90,971 |
98,138 |
106,201 |
115,272 |
Total non-current liabilities |
|
85,245 |
90,971 |
98,138 |
106,201 |
152,317 |
Trade and other payables |
|
12,772 |
15,148 |
13,048 |
13,048 |
13,048 |
Current loans and borrowings |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Other current liabilities |
|
9,450 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Total current liabilities |
|
22,222 |
15,148 |
13,048 |
13,048 |
13,048 |
Equity attributable to company |
|
420,598 |
415,343 |
414,734 |
406,476 |
396,698 |
Non-controlling interest |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cash flow statement |
|
|||||
Profit for the year |
|
(8,962) |
(7,106) |
(2,087) |
(9,736) |
(11,256) |
Taxation expenses |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Net finance expenses |
|
(743) |
(572) |
6,534 |
7,490 |
8,833 |
Depreciation and amortisation |
|
5,687 |
4,111 |
2,799 |
608 |
456 |
Share based payments |
|
864 |
1,478 |
1,478 |
1,478 |
1,478 |
Other adjustments (impairments) |
|
5,652 |
1,628 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Movements in working capital |
|
(868) |
5,891 |
(7,590) |
0 |
0 |
Interest paid / received |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Income taxes paid |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Cash from operations (CFO) |
|
1,630 |
5,430 |
1,133 |
(160) |
(489) |
Capex |
|
(26,817) |
(15,784) |
(24,000) |
(5,000)* |
(49,200)* |
Acquisitions & disposals net |
|
(6,266) |
(658) |
13,800 |
0 |
0 |
Other investing activities |
|
521 |
722 |
15,634 |
573 |
238 |
Cash used in investing activities (CFIA) |
|
(32,562) |
(15,720) |
5,434 |
(4,427) |
(48,962) |
Net proceeds from issue of shares |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Movements in debt |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
37,045 |
Other financing activities (includes rig settlement) |
|
(13) |
18 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Cash from financing activities (CFF) |
|
(13) |
18 |
0 |
0 |
37,045 |
Increase/(decrease) in cash |
|
(30,945) |
(10,272) |
6,567 |
(4,587) |
(12,406) |
Currency translation differences and other |
|
655 |
(31) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Cash at end of period |
|
20,729 |
10,426 |
16,993 |
12,406 |
0 |
Net (debt) cash including term deposits |
|
50,729 |
40,426 |
26,993 |
22,406 |
(27,045) |
Movement in net (debt) cash over period |
|
(30,290) |
(10,303) |
(13,433) |
(4,587) |
(49,451) |
Source: Rockhopper Exploration, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Assumes capex ahead of first oil funded through Rockhopper's share of project debt and Premier Oil carry. **Assumes Q419 completion of Abu Sennan disposal.
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