agriculture-cereal-countryside-587970

Transformation continues

Evolva 23 March 2020 Update
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Evolva

Transformation continues

FY19 results

Food & beverages

23 March 2020

Price

CHF0.157

Market cap

CHF129m

Net cash (CHFm) at 31 December 2019

39.9m

Shares in issue

823m

Free float

100%

Code

EVE

Primary exchange

SIX Swiss Ex

Secondary exchange

OTC US

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(42.0)

(13.6)

(36.2)

Rel (local)

(24.9)

6.9

(30.0)

52-week high/low

CHF0.303

CHF0.138

Business description

Evolva is a Swiss biotech company focused on the research, development and commercialisation of products based on nature. The company has leading businesses in Flavors and Fragrances, Health Ingredients and Health.

Next events

AGM

15 April 2020

H120 results

26 August 2020

Analysts

Sara Welford

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Russell Pointon

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Evolva is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Evolva’s FY19 results were above our expectations in terms of sales and EBITDA. Cash flow was also far better than expected as the company has materially reduced its cash burn. Nootkatone is on track for EPA registration and a new product, EVE-X157/Z4, is due to be launched later this year, for the Flavours and Fragrances and Health Ingredients segments. Management has reiterated its commitment to reach cash break-even by FY23 (previous guidance was FY21/23) and is evaluating options to finance future growth until cash break-even, including a capital increase. We have cut our sales and profit forecasts to reflect the guidance that the FY19 growth trajectory will be replicated in FY20 and our fair value is now CHF0.42/share.

Year end

Revenue (CHFm)

PBT*
(CHFm)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/18

8.9

(25.4)

(3.0)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/19

11.6

(15.6)

(2.0)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/20e

10.9

(13.1)

(1.6)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/21e

19.3

(7.8)

(1.0)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

FY19 results

Total revenues of CHF11.6m were above our forecast of CHF10.9m, with product revenues (CHF5.5m) somewhat lower than expected, and R&D revenues (CHF6.1m) significantly higher. EBITDA loss was also better at CHF12.3m (forecast CHF15.1m loss), so the net loss was also better than expected. Net cash of CHF39.9m at end FY19 was higher than our forecast of CHF32.1m. Guidance has been refined, with cash break-even expected in FY23. We cut our product revenue estimates in line with guidance for the FY19 trajectory (+60% growth) to be maintained in FY20.

COVID-19 likely to soften demand

It is still early days, but the effect of the coronavirus in China was to temporarily soften demand for some of Evolva’s Flavours & Fragrances products. We expect this scenario is likely to be replicated as the pandemic spreads globally, although it is still too early to determine what the exact impact will be. We have moved our peak sales forecasts for all of Evolva’s products out by a year to reflect the temporary disruption.

Valuation: Fair value CHF0.42/share

We have updated our model to reflect current FX. We continue to value Evolva on a DCF basis with a 25-year model, assuming cash break-even in FY23 (we previously assumed FY22), in line with management guidance. As discussed, we have delayed our assumptions for each product’s peak sales by a year. We have also updated our model to reflect the higher than expected net cash at end FY19. Overall, our fair value decreases slightly to CHF0.42/share (from CHF0.51/share previously).

Valuation

We detail our valuation in Exhibit 1. Our fair value decreases to CHF0.42/share as we have delayed our peak product sales by a year for each product. We have also cut our FY20 revenue estimates in light of guidance that product revenues will continue on the same trajectory as FY19 (ie +60%). The company’s guidance that FY20 R&D revenue will fall remains unchanged, as the US BARDA (Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority) contract comes to an end.

We now assume cash break-even will occur in FY23 (previously FY22), again in line with management guidance. We note management comments that to finance future growth until cash break-even, the company is currently evaluating multiple options including a capital increase. Management has stated that minimising dilution to existing shareholders is one of its aims. Our current forecasts assume the company remains cash-positive until it breaks even on a cash basis in FY23 (we forecast net cash of CHF8m at end FY23). If the cash burn were to accelerate beyond our forecasts, the headroom of CHF8m is rather limited. With the current uncertainty prevailing in the markets, it is difficult to predict the best option for further financing, but at the current share price, every CHF10m of equity raised via a share placing or rights issue would cause 7.5% dilution, before taking into account any discount required to complete the fundraising.

Exhibit 1: Summary of DCF valuation

Product

Value
(CHFm)

Value/share (CHF)

Notes

Stevia (royalty stream)

86.2

0.10

Launched; peak sales: $600m; royalty stream: 5%

Resveratrol

22.5

0.03

Launched; peak sales: $140m; likelihood of success 80%; margin: 30%

Nootkatone

168.9

0.21

Launched; peak sales: $150m; likelihood of success 75%*; margin: 40%

Valencene

14.3

0.02

Launched; peak sales: $10m; likelihood of success 90%; margin: 40%

R&D partnerships

19.9

0.02

Assume revenue continues to fall

Capex

(2.5)

0.00

Includes contribution to Cargill for commercialisation of EverSweet

Net cash

39.9

0.05

Reported net cash at end FY19

Total

349.2

0.42

Using FY20 average number of shares throughout

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: WACC = 12.5%. *There is no development risk associated with nootkatone, but we have applied a risk adjustment due to uncertainty about the use of the product as an insect repellent.

We use a 25-year DCF valuation with a fade. Each product has varying peak sales, margins, ramp-up assumptions and probabilities of success, as detailed above. In each case, we reduce the R&D and operating expenditure after launch to reflect the lower level of investment required once the product is established on the market. We start to fade stevia in 2031 (year 11) and the other products in 2035 (year 15), and we also assume they become commoditised and their operating margins fall to single digits, which is the level of commoditised food ingredients. Stevia remains a key product, at c 25% of our valuation, after adjusting for tax and capex, but note that we see greater value overall in nootkatone. Registration of the latter with the US EPA for use in pest control is expected over the next six months or so. As stated in the past, this should open up a much larger market for the use of nootkatone, both in the US and also internationally (more detail on Evolva’s products and market sizes is available in this note).

Our valuation purely reflects the products on which Evolva has chosen to concentrate, and we ascribe zero value to all other alliances/collaborations and other projects. We recognise that the latter do retain some residual value, but for the sake of conservatism we err on the side of caution. We also ascribe no value to the new product announced with the FY19 results (EVE-X157/Z4), which is set for launch later this year, but still remains unknown to the market.

Board and management changes

In November Evolva announced that Beat In-Albon would be proposed as a new board member at the next AGM and would take over as chairman from Gerard Hoetmer, who would remain as a member of the board. Mr In-Albon is a Lonza veteran. In addition, it announced that the board had decided to reduce its composition from five members to four. Three existing board members would not be seeking re-election, and hence a search would begin for a fourth board member.

In January Evolva announced that Richard Ridinger (former CEO of Lonza and highly regarded) and Stephan Schindler (CFO of Bachem, previously at DSM and also well respected) will be joining the board. The new additions to the board will bring international B2B experience to Evolva. The company also announced that Gerard Hoetmer and Thomas Videbaek would not be seeking re-election after all, and hence the search for a fourth member remains ongoing.

The announcement also included some changes at the executive management level. Scott Fabro, COO, will leave Evolva in June, after two years with the company, and the business units will report directly to CEO Oliver Walker. André Pennartz was appointed CFO effective immediately (in January). The key change here was that the main functions within Evolva will be centred around the Basel area, rather than being split across different geographies (Scott Fabro, for example, is based in the US).

The company is undergoing major change as it transitions from an R&D-focused entity into an early-stage commercial company, and hence the board is changing to reflect this. As a reminder, during Q419 Cargill announced it had started up commercial-scale production of EverSweet, thus marking a milestone for Evolva in its transition.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

CHF000s

2017

2018

2019

2020e

2021e

2022e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

6,817

8,933

11,596

10,891

19,319

30,427

Cost of Sales

(4,698)

(6,816)

(6,305)

(3,681)

(6,807)

(12,111)

Gross Profit

2,119

2,117

5,292

7,210

12,512

18,316

EBITDA

 

 

(37,629)

(23,350)

(12,280)

(11,988)

(6,693)

(1,180)

Operating Profit (before GW and except.)

(39,804)

(24,827)

(39,804)

(24,827)

(14,067)

(13,214)

Intangible Amortisation

(5,126)

(5,909)

(6,060)

(6,060)

(6,060)

(6,060)

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

(44,929)

(30,736)

(20,128)

(19,274)

(13,991)

(8,272)

Net Interest

(596)

(622)

(1,486)

160

97

54

Other financial income

(482)

40

0

0

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(40,882)

(25,409)

(15,553)

(13,054)

(7,834)

(2,158)

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(46,007)

(31,318)

(21,614)

(19,115)

(13,894)

(8,218)

Tax

7,023

2,104

(25)

0

0

0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(33,881)

(23,305)

(15,578)

(13,054)

(7,834)

(2,158)

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(38,984)

(29,214)

(21,639)

(19,115)

(13,894)

(8,218)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

482.1

770.6

482.1

770.6

770.4

810.0

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

(7.0)

(3.0)

(2.0)

(1.6)

(1.0)

(0.3)

EPS - FRS 3 (c)

 

 

(8.1)

(3.8)

(2.8)

(2.4)

(1.7)

(1.0)

Dividend per share (c)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

31.1

23.7

45.6

66.2

64.8

60.2

EBITDA Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

132,125

145,825

143,333

137,824

129,569

120,968

Intangible Assets

124,487

138,838

133,939

127,878

121,818

115,757

Tangible Assets

5,208

4,769

7,211

6,186

5,157

4,343

Other fixed assets

2,430

2,218

2,184

3,760

2,594

868

Current Assets

 

 

107,697

67,192

48,745

34,030

29,544

32,406

Stocks

8,009

4,040

5,392

6,534

11,591

18,256

Debtors

1,831

1,941

1,480

1,416

2,511

3,955

Cash

97,185

60,380

39,920

24,126

13,488

8,241

Other current assets

673

830

1,954

1,954

1,954

1,954

Current Liabilities

 

 

(12,261)

(14,705)

(12,295)

(11,084)

(12,527)

(14,977)

Creditors

(1,933)

(743)

(2,912)

(1,700)

(3,143)

(5,593)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

0

Finance lease obligations

(781)

(782)

(1,289)

(1,289)

(1,289)

(1,289)

Other current liabilities

(9,546)

(13,180)

(8,095)

(8,095)

(8,095)

(8,095)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(6,840)

(4,150)

(7,221)

(6,137)

(5,053)

(3,969)

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

0

Finance lease obligations

(2,400)

(2,394)

(4,840)

(3,756)

(2,673)

(1,589)

Other long term liabilities

(4,440)

(1,756)

(2,381)

(2,381)

(2,381)

(2,381)

Net Assets

 

 

220,721

194,162

172,562

154,634

141,533

134,428

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(35,224)

(23,247)

(13,577)

(14,669)

(9,443)

(4,001)

Net Interest

(379)

(360)

(583)

160

97

54

Capex

(582)

(364)

(193)

(201)

(209)

(217)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

0

0

0

0

Financing

86,457

(209)

164

0

0

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other cash flow

(658)

(12,595)

(6,224)

(1,084)

(1,084)

(1,084)

Net Cash Flow

49,614

(36,775)

(20,413)

(15,793)

(10,639)

(5,247)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(47,516)

(97,184)

(60,381)

(39,920)

(24,127)

(13,488)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

54

(29)

(47)

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(97,184)

(60,381)

(39,920)

(24,127)

(13,488)

(8,241)

Source: Edison Investment Research, company data


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Evolva and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Evolva. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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1,185 Avenue of the Americas

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United States of America

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Evolva and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Evolva. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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