Trading update confirms positive trends

S&U 12 August 2019 Update
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S&U

Trading update confirms positive trends

Trading update

Financial services

12 August 2019

Price

2,220p

Market cap

£266m

Group debt (£m) at end July 2019

125

Shares in issue

12.0m

Free float

26%

Code

SUS

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(5.9)

1.4

(9.9)

Rel (local)

(2.6)

1.1

(3.5)

52-week high/low

2,605.00p

1,767.50p

Business description

S&U’s Advantage motor finance business lends on a simple hire-purchase basis to lower and middle income groups that may have impaired credit records that restrict their access to mainstream products. It has over 62,000 customers. The Aspen property bridging business has moved beyond the pilot stage and is expanding its loan book (over £24m at end July).

Next events

H120 results

24 September 2019

Analysts

Andrew Mitchell

+44 (0)20 3681 2500

Martyn King

+44 (0)20 3077 5745

S&U is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

S&U’s latest trading update confirms the improving trend in the motor finance business in terms of demand, transactions and indicators for credit quality. Aspen property bridging also continues to make progress although at a slightly slower rate. Our estimates are unchanged and the shares appear conservatively valued with an attractive yield.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

01/18

79.8

30.2

202.4

105.0

11.0

4.7

01/19

89.2

34.6

232.0

118.0

9.6

5.3

01/20e

94.7

36.9

247.8

122.5

9.0

5.5

01/21e

103.8

40.3

270.8

124.6

8.2

5.6

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Trading to end July in line with expectations

S&U’s update for the period between its AGM (23 May) and end-July is reassuring. It indicates that the rate of growth in both loan applications and transactions continues to grow in the Advantage Finance motor finance business. Customer numbers are over 62,000 compared with over 60,000 at the time of the AGM and up 7% y-o-y. The used car market is described as robust and is expected to remain so even in the event of a no-deal Brexit. We view the confidence here as partly reflecting the segment of the market S&U addresses with loans averaging around £6,000 for vehicles that typically provide a means of getting to work. Similarly, its exposure to weakening car prices is substantially smaller than for personal contract plan lenders financing new or near-new cars. On credit quality, the early indicators on repayments of recently granted loans continue to show improvement following tightening of loan criteria. The Aspen property bridging business is also making progress but at a slightly slower pace than expected given a softening of activity in the housing market. Amounts receivable stood at £24m at end-July vs £22m at the time of the May update. Product and IT linkage improvements with introducers are expected to help in H2.

Background and outlook

Used car market volumes have been more resilient than new car registrations recently and the value of car finance has continued to see growth. While the political/economic outlook appears uncertain, the profile and long-term track record of the Advantage business in particular are supportive features in the event of unfavourable macro developments. In the meantime, overall S&U trading is on track and our estimates are unchanged.

Valuation

Our unchanged estimates point to S&U generating returns on equity of over 17% prospectively while a ROE/COE model suggests that, at the current share price, the market is cautiously factoring in a return of c 13%. Prospective P/E multiples are similar to a peer group (see page 3) but the yield is above average.

Market background and outlook

The period of UK/global political and macroeconomic uncertainty continues, dampening confidence, but in the circumstances economic activity has held up better than might be expected. Redundancies and unemployment, lagging economic indicators and potentially important signals for credit quality for S&U, remain at relatively subdued levels (Exhibit 2). The question remains whether these developments trigger a significant adverse change.

Exhibit 1: GFK UK consumer confidence indicator

Exhibit 2: UK redundancies and unemployment

Source: Bloomberg (last value July 2019)

Source: Bloomberg (last value May 2019)

Exhibit 1: GFK UK consumer confidence indicator

Source: Bloomberg (last value July 2019)

Exhibit 2: UK redundancies and unemployment

Source: Bloomberg (last value May 2019)

Exhibits 3 and 4 show trends in the UK new and used car market. Used car market transaction volumes have historically been less volatile and this is evident in recent quarters in the smaller reductions in used car activity. The value of car finance through dealerships mirrors this, although here the used car segment has continued to see growth in value over the period shown, in line with the positive remarks made by S&U. Within the Provident Financial half year report, the comments on Moneybarn (an Advantage peer) were also in tune with this, reporting robust used car demand and very strong new business volumes. In contrast, recent H1 trading updates from car retailers Lookers and Pendragon were cautious, citing weaker demand putting pressure on used car margins, particularly in June. However, these comments are likely to reflect both a higher value segment of the market than Advantage addresses and specific stock management challenges.

Exhibit 3: UK car market trends (volume)

Exhibit 4: Car finance through dealerships (value)

Source: SMMT

Source: Finance and Leasing Association

Exhibit 3: UK car market trends (volume)

Source: SMMT

Exhibit 4: Car finance through dealerships (value)

Source: Finance and Leasing Association

The next two charts show the data published by BCA car auctions on price levels for fleet and lease, and dealer part-exchanged cars as indicators of trends in prices. The percentage change chart makes clear there has been a softening in price increases following a period of marked strength last year. Secure Trust Bank has referenced a particularly marked seasonal weakening in used car values in Q219 (-14%) but again, we assume this reflects the near prime/prime segment now addressed by Motorway/V12 Vehicle Finance. A recent market review by Aston Barclay indicates ‘young’ part exchanges (c £6,000, average mileage 65,000, c five years) were down 6% sequentially in Q2 but effectively stable year-on-year. As we have mentioned in previous notes, a reduction in prices could be a negative for Advantage (potentially triggering higher early redemptions and lower realisations on repossessions) but, given the level of depreciation already incurred on the cars being financed, the sensitivity is relatively low. A more salient risk would be a significant increase in the level of redundancies in the event of a marked economic slowdown.

Exhibit 5: BCA car auction prices (£)

Exhibit 6: BCA car auction price change y-o-y (%)

Source: BCA Marketplace

Source: BCA Marketplace

Exhibit 5: BCA car auction prices (£)

Source: BCA Marketplace

Exhibit 6: BCA car auction price change y-o-y (%)

Source: BCA Marketplace

While the macro and related uncertainties mentioned here are set to remain a feature, for Advantage the continued high level of demand, signs that tightened credit criteria are working, measures to fine tune commission payments and ongoing IT enhancements are all positive factors for the future.

At Aspen, while the lower activity levels in the housing market may temper growth, the business remains in its early stages with potential to gain penetration through product development and improved IT linkages with introducers. Loss avoidance remains a priority and a conservative approach to developing the business remains in place.

Our estimates are unchanged following the update and are shown in the financial summary on page 5.

Valuation comparison and recent performance

For reference we show an updated version of our peer comparison table which includes a selection of companies with an involvement in non-standard or motor lending as one of their activities. S&U’s prospective P/Es are similar to the peer average while its yield, return on equity and price to book value are all above average.

Exhibit 7: Peer comparison

Price
(p)

Market cap
(£m)

P/E 2019
(x)

P/E 2020
(x)

Yield
(%)

ROE
(%)

P/BV
(x)

S&U

2,100

254

8.5

7.8

5.6

17.6

1.5

Close Brothers

1,294

1,963

9.6

9.3

4.9

16.3

1.5

PCF Group

28

69

9.1

7.1

1.1

11.4

1.4

Provident Financial

371

943

7.6

6.3

2.7

16.1

1.4

Secure Trust Bank

1,320

244

7.5

6.3

6.3

12.7

1.0

Peer average

8.4

7.3

3.7

14.1

1.3

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: P/Es adjusted to calendar years. Priced 8 August 2019.

Exhibit 8 shows the recent price performance for the peer group with all companies showing declines over all the periods shown, which is likely to be largely a reflection of market concerns regarding potential economic outcomes. In this context S&U has performed better than the average over most of the periods, which can be seen as warranted by its business profile and the return on equity generated.

Exhibit 8: Share price performance comparison

% change

1 month

3 months

1 year

YTD

From 12m high

S&U

-11.8

-3.7

-13.8

-1.4

-21.1

Close Brothers

-11.1

-15.6

-17.3

-10.1

-23.1

PCF Group

-9.8

-16.7

-26.5

-23.9

-35.9

Provident Financial

-9.0

-26.8

-44.4

-35.4

-47.4

Secure Trust Bank

-10.2

-10.8

-18.3

10.9

-26.7

Average

-10.0

-17.5

-26.6

-14.6

-33.3

Source: Refinitiv. Note: Priced 8 August 2019.

Exhibit 9: Financial summary

£'000

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020e

2021e

Year end 31 January

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

45,182

60,521

79,781

89,215

94,690

103,784

Impairments

(7,611)

(12,194)

(19,596)

(23,186)

(24,273)

(25,648)

Other cost of sales

(8,980)

(12,871)

(17,284)

(15,751)

(16,813)

(19,200)

Administration expenses

(7,131)

(8,332)

(9,629)

(10,763)

(11,363)

(12,454)

EBITDA

 

 

21,460

27,124

33,272

39,515

42,241

46,482

Depreciation

 

 

(209)

(253)

(294)

(414)

(555)

(619)

Op. profit (incl. share-based payouts pre-except.)

 

 

21,251

26,871

32,978

39,101

41,686

45,863

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

0

0

Non recurring items

0

0

0

0

0

0

Investment revenues / finance expense

(1,782)

(1,668)

(2,818)

(4,541)

(4,821)

(5,581)

Profit before tax (FRS 3)

 

 

19,469

25,203

30,160

34,560

36,865

40,282

Profit before tax (norm)

 

 

19,469

25,203

30,160

34,560

36,865

40,282

Tax

(3,583)

(4,861)

(5,746)

(6,571)

(7,004)

(7,654)

Discontinued business after tax

53,299

Profit after tax (FRS 3)

 

 

69,185

20,342

24,414

27,989

29,861

32,628

Profit after tax (norm)

 

 

15,886

20,342

24,414

27,989

29,861

32,628

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

12.0

12.0

12.1

12.1

12.1

12.1

Diluted EPS (p)

 

 

576.5

169.1

202.4

232.0

247.8

270.8

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

132.4

169.1

202.4

232.0

247.8

270.8

Dividend per share (p)

201.0

91.0

105.0

118.0

122.5

124.6

EBITDA margin (%)

47.5%

44.8%

41.7%

44.3%

44.6%

44.8%

Operating margin (before GW and except.) (%)

47.0%

44.4%

41.3%

43.8%

44.0%

44.2%

Return on equity

15.2%

15.2%

16.7%

17.6%

17.3%

17.2%

BALANCE SHEET

Non-current assets

 

 

103,653

138,004

181,015

185,383

208,712

234,133

Current assets

 

 

61,903

57,763

84,178

95,430

103,030

115,389

Total assets

 

 

165,556

195,767

265,193

280,813

311,742

349,522

Current liabilities

 

 

(6,850)

(17,850)

(7,927)

(6,722)

(6,896)

(7,126)

Non current liabilities inc pref

(30,450)

(38,450)

(104,450)

(108,724)

(124,024)

(143,724)

Net assets

 

 

128,256

139,467

152,816

165,367

180,822

198,672

NAV per share (p)

1,084

1,177

1,276

1,375

1,504

1,652

CASH FLOW

Operating cash flow

 

 

(16,017)

(27,431)

(43,418)

10,530

568

(4,069)

Net cash from investing activities

80,716

(308)

(1,040)

(785)

(846)

(846)

Dividends paid

(23,090)

(9,548)

(11,377)

(13,080)

(14,592)

(14,964)

Other financing (excluding change in borrowing)

55

21

12

14

0

0

Net cash flow

 

 

41,664

(37,266)

(55,823)

(3,321)

(14,870)

(19,879)

Opening net (debt)/cash

 

 

(53,565)

(11,901)

(49,167)

(104,990)

(108,311)

(123,181)

Closing net (debt)/cash

 

 

(11,901)

(49,167)

(104,990)

(108,311)

(123,181)

(143,060)

Source: S&U, Edison Investment Research. Note: FY16 dividend per share includes exceptional payment of 125p.


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This report has been commissioned by S&U and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by S&U. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

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The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

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This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by S&U and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by S&U. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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