Quantum Genomics — The QUORUM trial

Quantum Genomics (PAR: ALQGC)

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Research: Healthcare

Quantum Genomics — The QUORUM trial

In April, Quantum Genomics announced it would be moving forward with the Phase IIb trial in heart failure and has recently announced the design of this study. The QUORUM study will assess the safety and efficacy of Quantum’s drug firibastat (QGC001) compared to ramipril (brand name Altace), an angiotensin-converting-enzyme (ACE) inhibitor, in 300 subjects enrolled within 24 hours after suffering acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The study is expected to launch by the end of 2018 with results due in H220.

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Healthcare

Quantum Genomics

The QUORUM trial

Clinical update

Pharma & biotech

28 June 2018

Price

€1.91

Market cap

€22m

Net cash (€m) at 31 December 2017

11.1

Shares in issue

11.2m

Free float

68.5%

Code

ALQGC

Primary exchange

Euronext Paris

Secondary exchange

OTCQX

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(16.8)

(17.5)

(61.8)

Rel (local)

(13.7)

(20.6)

(62.5)

52-week high/low

€5.4

€1.9

Business description

Quantum Genomics is a biopharmaceutical company developing firibastat, a brain aminopeptidase A inhibitor for the treatment of hypertension and heart failure. Its mechanism is implicated in the 25% of patients resistant to treatment. The Phase IIb in hypertension in enrolling rapidly and the Phase IIb in heart failure should start by the end of 2018.

Next events

Initiation of Phase IIb heart failure study

Q418

NEW-HOPE data

Q119

Analysts

Maxim Jacobs

+1 646 653 7027

Nathaniel Calloway

+1 646 653 7036

Quantum Genomics is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

In April, Quantum Genomics announced it would be moving forward with the Phase IIb trial in heart failure and has recently announced the design of this study. The QUORUM study will assess the safety and efficacy of Quantum’s drug firibastat (QGC001) compared to ramipril (brand name Altace), an angiotensin-converting-enzyme (ACE) inhibitor, in 300 subjects enrolled within 24 hours after suffering acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The study is expected to launch by the end of 2018 with results due in H220.

Year end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/16

0.0

(6.2)

(0.60)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/17

0.0

(10.3)

(0.93)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/18e

0.0

(11.4)

(0.73)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/19e

0.0

(16.2)

(1.00)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Phase IIb heart failure trial design

The study will assess the safety and efficacy of firibastat compared to ramipril, an ACE inhibitor, in 300 subjects enrolled from 40 centres in the US and Europe within 24 hours of suffering AMI, also known as a heart attack. The primary endpoint will be the change from baseline in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) after a three-month treatment. Secondary endpoints will include cardiac events, functional status and change in heart failure biomarkers.

Around 735,000 heart attacks in the US annually

According to the Centers for Disease Control, there are about 735,000 heart attacks in the year in the US, with 210,000 of those being repeat heart attacks. And according to the American College of Cardiology, 23% of women and 18% of men die within a year of their first recognised heart attack.

NEW-HOPE continues to enrol well

In April, Quantum Genomics announced that enrolment in its NEW-HOPE trial was outpacing internal projections and that patient dosing is expected to be completed by the end of 2018 with data in Q119. NEW-HOPE is a study of firibastat in 250 hypertensive overweight patients across 25 major US hospitals, with a primary endpoint of change from baseline in office systolic blood pressure at week eight.

Valuation: €207m or €18.45 per share

We are increasing our valuation to €207m or €18.45 per share from €201m or €18.31 per share as we have rolled forward our NPVs, although this was mitigated by a slightly higher share count. We may revisit our valuation following additional data from the ongoing clinical trials.

Heart failure study design announced

In April, Quantum Genomics announced it would be moving forward with the Phase IIb trial in heart failure and, as promised, has announced the design of this study. The QUORUM study will assess the safety and efficacy of Quantum’s drug firibastat compared to ramipril, an ACE inhibitor, in 300 subjects enrolled within 24 hours of suffering AMI, who were treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention and have reduced LVEF. The primary endpoint will be the change from baseline in LVEF after a three-month treatment. Secondary endpoints will include cardiac events, functional status and change in heart failure biomarkers. The subjects will be recruited from 40 centres in the US and Europe and the trial is expected to launch by the end of 2018 with results expected in H220.

It makes sense for Quantum Genomics to develop firibastat for heart failure as the same classes of drugs used to treat hypertension are also used for heart failure, because a reduction in blood pressure reduces strain on the heart and prevents the associated hypertrophy and other disorders that can lead to reduced function. Moreover, ramipril, an ACE inhibitor used in hypertension, had been able to show a statistically significant mortality benefit versus placebo in patients where ramipril therapy was initiated between day three and day 10 post-heart attack. As seen in Exhibit 1, 17% of patients in the ramipril arm died versus 23% in the placebo arm (HR=0.73, p=0.002).

Exhibit 1: Ramipril versus placebo in post-AMI patients

Endpoint

Ramipril (n=1004)

Placebo (n=982)

Death (primary endpoint)

170 (17%)

222 (23%)

Severe/resistant heart failure

143 (14%)

178 (18%)

Reinfarction

81 (8%)

88 (9%)

Stroke

25 (2%)

17 (2%)

Source: The AIRE Study group, Effect of ramipril on mortality and morbidity of survivors of acute myocardial infarction with clinical evidence of heart failure. Lancet 1993; 342: 821-28.

Valuation

We are increasing our valuation to €207m or €18.45 per share from €201m or €18.31 per share as we have rolled forward our NPVs, although this was mitigated by a slightly higher share count. We may revisit our valuation following additional data from the ongoing clinical trials.

Exhibit 2: Quantum Genomics valuation

Product

Main indication

Local

Status

Prob. of success

Launch year

Peak sales ($m)

Patent protection

rNPV (€m)

Firibastat (QGC001)

Hypertension

US

Phase Il

15%

2023

1,110

2031

121.80

Firibastat (QGC001)

Hypertension

Europe

Phase Il

15%

2023

959

2031

103.32

Firibastat (QGC001)

Development costs

 

 

 

 

(128.49)

Firibastat (QGC001)

Heart failure

US

Phase IIb

15%

2023

574

2031

77.52

Firibastat (QGC001)

Heart failure

Europe

Phase IIb

15%

2023

687

2031

91.98

Firibastat (QGC001)

Development costs

(70.28)

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

195.86

Cash and cash equivalents (31 December 2017) (€m)

11.09

Total firm value (€m)

206.95

Total shares (31 May 2018) (m)

11.21

Value per basic share (€)

18.45

Source: Edison Investment Research

Financials

Quantum ended 2017 with €11.1m in cash and investments. In March, it announced an equity line of credit with Kepler Cheuvreux, which could raise €24m over three years in four tranches. The company has stated it believes the equity line would fund it through the end of 2020. This will be somewhat dependent on whether additional trials are conducted by the company or a partner. As late-stage cardiovascular trials are extremely expensive to conduct, we expect further development (such as Phase III trials) to be financed via a partnership.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

€000s

2016

2017

2018e

2019e

Year end 31 December

PCG

PCG

PCG

PCG

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

0

0

0

0

Cost of Sales

0

0

0

0

Gross Profit

0

0

0

0

EBITDA

 

 

(6,216)

(10,292)

(10,948)

(14,792)

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

(6,216)

(10,292)

(10,948)

(14,792)

Intangible Amortisation

0

0

0

0

Other

1

0

0

0

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

(6,216)

(10,292)

(10,948)

(14,792)

Net Interest

0

0

(481)

(1,440)

Other

18

(176)

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(6,216)

(10,292)

(11,429)

(16,232)

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(6,198)

(10,468)

(11,429)

(16,232)

Tax

958

1,150

1,486

2,110

Deferred tax

0

0

0

0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(5,258)

(9,142)

(9,943)

(14,122)

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(5,240)

(9,318)

(9,943)

(14,122)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

8.7

9.9

13.6

14.1

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

(59.79)

(92.81)

(73.20)

(99.97)

EPS - FRS 3 (€)

 

 

(0.60)

(0.95)

(0.73)

(1.00)

Dividend per share (c)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

701

439

434

431

Intangible Assets

142

91

91

91

Tangible Assets

60

52

48

44

Other

500

296

296

296

Current Assets

 

 

13,809

13,478

15,540

13,422

Stocks

1,011

189

189

189

Debtors

1,599

2,197

2,197

2,197

Cash

11,198

11,089

13,151

11,033

Other

1

3

3

3

Current Liabilities

 

 

(3,481)

(4,572)

(4,572)

(4,572)

Creditors

(3,480)

(4,571)

(4,571)

(4,571)

Short term borrowings

(1)

(1)

(1)

(1)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(506)

(474)

(6,474)

(18,474)

Long term borrowings

(18)

(19)

(6,019)

(18,019)

Other long term liabilities

(488)

(454)

(454)

(454)

Net Assets

 

 

10,524

8,871

4,929

(9,193)

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(5,531)

(7,977)

(9,931)

(14,110)

Net Interest

0

0

0

0

Tax

0

0

0

0

Capex

(66)

32

(8)

(8)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

0

0

Financing

7,744

7,733

6,000

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

Other

399

104

0

0

Net Cash Flow

2,546

(108)

(3,939)

(14,118)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(8,573)

(11,179)

(11,069)

(7,131)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Exchange rate movements

0

0

0

0

Other

60

-2

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(11,179)

(11,069)

(7,131)

6,988

Source: Quantum Genomics accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: We assume €24m additional financing, the amount of the equity credit line, €18m of which is shown as debt for the purpose of our model.

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Quantum Genomics and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Quantum Genomics and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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