4iG — Strong Q4 helps 4iG beat FY20 estimates

4iG (BSE: 4IG)

Last close As at 27/03/2024

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Research: TMT

4iG — Strong Q4 helps 4iG beat FY20 estimates

After its seasonally strong final quarter, 4iG reported FY20 net revenues of HUF57.3bn, a 39% increase on FY19 and 6% ahead of our upgraded estimates following 4iG’s Q3 report. FY20 EBITDA rose 24% to HUF5.1bn, up 24% y-o-y, with a higher than expected margin of 8.8% (Edison estimate 8.1%). PAT rose 21% to HUF3.4bn. 4iG reported minimal financial impact from COVID-19, with some segments of its business even benefiting (XaaS, security, home working). The group completed four transactions in H220, with a further deal announced post period end, which, together, are expected to add c HUF10bn of revenues to FY21 and HUF3.5bn+ of EBITDA. However, with the HDT deal yet to complete and without firm figures, we will wait until the full results to update our estimates. 4iG has also flagged a potential HUF15bn bond issue in FY21 to fund future M&A.

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Written by

TMT

4iG

Strong Q4 helps 4iG beat FY20 estimates

FY20 prelims

IT services

4 March 2021

Price

HUF653

Market cap

HUF60.3bn

HUF365/€

Net cash (HUFbn) at 31 December 2021

3.2

Shares in issue

92.3m

Free float

37.1%

Code

4iG

Primary exchange

Budapest

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(1.7)

1.6

13.0

Rel (local)

(0.8)

(9.8)

12.3

52-week high/low

HUF707

HUF296

Business description

4iG is one of the leading IT services and systems integrators in Hungary, working with public sector clients, large corporates and SMEs. Management is focused on becoming the market leader in Hungary by FY22 as well as targeting expansion in Central and Eastern Europe.

Next events

Full FY20 results

April 2021

AGM

April 2021

Analysts

Richard Williamson

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

4iG is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

After its seasonally strong final quarter, 4iG reported FY20 net revenues of HUF57.3bn, a 39% increase on FY19 and 6% ahead of our upgraded estimates following 4iG’s Q3 report. FY20 EBITDA rose 24% to HUF5.1bn, up 24% y-o-y, with a higher than expected margin of 8.8% (Edison estimate 8.1%). PAT rose 21% to HUF3.4bn. 4iG reported minimal financial impact from COVID-19, with some segments of its business even benefiting (XaaS, security, home working). The group completed four transactions in H220, with a further deal announced post period end, which, together, are expected to add c HUF10bn of revenues to FY21 and HUF3.5bn+ of EBITDA. However, with the HDT deal yet to complete and without firm figures, we will wait until the full results to update our estimates. 4iG has also flagged a potential HUF15bn bond issue in FY21 to fund future M&A.

Year end

Revenue
(HUFbn)

PBT*
(HUFbn)

EPS*
(HUF)

DPS
(HUF)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/19

41.1

3.3

31.5

22.0

20.7

3.4

12/20

57.3

4.2

36.3

24.0

18.0

3.7

12/21e

62.1

4.6

43.1

28.0

15.1

4.3

12/22e

70.3

5.9

54.2

35.0

12.1

5.4

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

FY20: Strong momentum carried through Q420

4iG confirmed a notably strong Q420, with revenues up 74% from Q320 (48% y-o-y growth), driving FY20 revenues to HUF57.3bn, a 39% y-o-y increase. EBITDA rose 24% to HUF5.1bn, up 24% y-o-y (FY19: HUF4.1bn) with PAT up 21% to HUF3.4bn. 4iG reported no perceptible slowdown in the Hungarian IT and ICT sectors in FY20 due to COVID-19. The pandemic acted as a catalyst to certain market segments, accelerating the digital transformation in both private and public sectors, with increased demand for home-working and cybersecurity solutions.

M&A upside yet to be factored into our estimates

We understand that the four transactions completed in H220, plus the acquisition of Hungaro DigiTel (HDT), on completion, should add more than HUF10bn of revenues to FY21e and c HUF3.5bn of EBITDA. However, with limited detail on the financials of the acquired businesses or the consideration paid by the company, we have not yet explicitly factored these acquisitions into our financial model. We propose to review our estimates once the full FY20 results become available. 4iG has also flagged an expected HUF15bn bond issue to support M&A in FY21.

Valuation: FY21 discount to peers, 4.3% yield

The 4iG story remains one of growth and consolidation, following 4iG’s strong FY20 and with management guidance of 10%+ revenue growth in the medium term as 4iG consolidates market leadership in Hungary. Our current estimates indicate an FY21e P/E of 15.1x and an attractive 4.3% dividend yield. At this rating, the stock remains at a meaningful discount to its European and regional peers with further upside potential as growth is fuelled by an active M&A agenda.

FY20 preliminary results

Momentum maintained in Q420

Despite the far-reaching impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, 4iG reported no perceptible slowdown in the Hungarian IT and ICT sectors in FY20. The pandemic even acted as a catalyst in certain segments, accelerating the digital transformation in both private and public sectors, with increased demand for home-working and cybersecurity solutions. With a flexible operating model, 4iG was able to respond effectively to the operational challenges of the pandemic, allowing it to sustain growth across its main areas of strategic focus in FY20.

Exhibit 1: FY20 actuals versus Edison estimates

HUFm

2019

2020e

2020

FY20

Y-o-y

Actual

Edison

Actual

Variance

Growth

Revenues

41,129

53,988

57,284

6%

39%

Gross profit

11,003

16,297

15,885

(3)%

44%

Gross margin

26.8%

30.2%

27.7%

(2)%

EBITDA

4,075

4,389

5,051

15%

24%

EBITDA margin

9.9%

8.1%

8.8%

8%

Normalised PBT

3,314

3,594

4,155

16%

25%

Normalised net income

2,893

3,127

3,341

7%

15%

Normalised basic EPS (HUF)

31.5

34.2

36.3

6%

15%

Normalised diluted EPS (HUF)

30.8

34.2

37.1

8%

21%

Net debt/(cash)

(4,039)

1,127

(3,159)

Source: 4iG, Edison Investment Research

4iG confirmed a notably strong Q420, with an unusual volume of contracts signed as businesses and government adjusted to the impact of COVID-19. Q420 revenues were up 74% from Q320 (48% y-o-y), driving FY20 revenues to HUF57.3bn, a 39% increase on FY19 (HUF41.1bn). EBITDA rose 24% to HUF5.1bn, a 24% y-o-y increase (FY19: HUF4.1bn) and PAT rose 21% to HUF3.4bn. On a quarterly basis, EBITDA rose 40% from Q320 and 53% y-o-y to HUF2.2bn.

Exhibit 2: Quarterly revenues FY20 vs FY19

Exhibit 3: Quarterly EBITDA FY20 vs FY19

Source: 4iG

Source: 4iG

Exhibit 2: Quarterly revenues FY20 vs FY19

Source: 4iG

Exhibit 3: Quarterly EBITDA FY20 vs FY19

Source: 4iG

M&A: Four transactions in H220, another after year end

4iG continues to consolidate a fragmented market, targeting smaller players with an attractive client base or sector focus and a proven track record to support the company’s growth and build out its headcount and capabilities.

4iG’s headcount increased significantly over the course of the year, driven principally by the four acquisitions announced in H220. Headcount increased from just over 600 employees at the start of the year to almost 700 staff by 30 September 2020, including more than 500 technical engineers, reaching a headcount of 924 (including contractors) by 31 December 2020.

As well as the most recent acquisition of HDT (subject to regulatory approval) announced in February 2021, 4iG completed the acquisition of DTSM in Q420, adding to the three transactions completed in Q320 (TRC, the CarpathiaSat JV and INNObyte).

Preliminary agreement to acquire 75% of the shares of Hungaro DigiTel

In February 2021, 4iG announced a preliminary agreement with Antenna Hungárai Zrt. (AH) and Portuguese Telecommunication Investments Kft. (PTI) to acquire a 75% majority holding in HDT. Under the agreement, 4iG will acquire a 25% holding in HDT from AH and a 50% holding from PTI, with the remaining 25% being retained by AH. AH is a state-owned telecoms and broadcasting company and an existing partner to 4iG in CarpathiaSat. PTI is a portfolio company of a private equity group, Alpac Capital.

HDT is the market leading telecoms service provider in Hungary and one of the leading telecoms businesses in the region, providing VSAT and satellite broadcasting services. Its annual turnover was HUF5.2bn in 2020 (c €14.4m), with EBITDA of HUF3.1bn (c €8.6m). Its customers include major private sector businesses (banks, TV companies) as well as public sector customers. HDT has 45 employees. The deal is expected to be funded by a combination of debt and equity.

While there is no total clarity at present on how this acquisition will fit into the company’s business model, following the establishment of CarpathiaSat (announced in August 2020), it represents the development of an important strategic partnership between 4iG and AH, to jointly develop digital satellite technologies and address both domestic and international telecoms opportunities. HDT will be a joint vehicle for these ambitions as well as for future partnership opportunities.

The transaction is conditional on regulatory approval, and is expected to complete in H121.

On completion of the acquisition of HDT, we understand that the five transactions together should add HUF10bn+ of revenues to FY21 and c HUF3.5bn of EBITDA. However, with limited details on the financials of the acquired businesses or the consideration paid by the company, we have not yet explicitly factored these acquisitions into our financial model and await more details from the company. We propose to review our estimates once the full FY20 results become available.

Outlook: HUF15bn bond issue to fund future M&A

With the Hungarian market still very fragmented and with not all IT services companies performing as strongly as 4iG, management continues to review M&A opportunities. The signs are that 4iG will continue to acquire opportunistically in FY21, having announced its participation in Magyar Nemzeti Bank’s Funding for Growth Scheme, to support the issue of a HUF15bn bond in FY21. 4iG had net cash of HUF3.2bn as at 31 December 2020.

Exhibit 4: Financial summary

HUFm

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

Year ending 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

14,007

41,129

57,284

62,076

70,261

Cost of Sales

(8,938)

(30,126)

(41,399)

(43,170)

(48,622)

Gross Profit

5,070

11,003

15,885

18,907

21,638

EBITDA

 

 

842

4,075

5,051

5,614

6,955

Normalised operating profit

 

 

240

3,332

4,215

4,775

6,041

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

0

Share-based payments

0

0

0

0

0

Reported operating profit

240

3,332

4,215

4,775

6,041

Net Interest

(21)

(18)

(60)

(142)

(157)

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

219

3,314

4,155

4,632

5,883

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

219

3,314

4,155

4,632

5,883

Reported tax

(117)

(488)

(741)

(649)

(882)

Profit After Tax (norm)

102

2,827

3,414

3,984

5,001

Profit After Tax (reported)

102

2,827

3,414

3,984

5,001

Minority interests

0

66

(73)

0

0

Discontinued operations

0

0

0

0

0

Net income (normalised)

102

2,893

3,341

3,984

5,001

Net income (reported)

102

2,893

3,341

3,984

5,001

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

91.6

91.7

92.0

92.3

92.3

EPS - basic normalised (HUF)

 

 

1.11

31.54

36.30

43.15

54.16

EPS - diluted normalised (HUF)

 

 

1.08

30.77

35.54

42.38

53.20

EPS - basic reported (HUF)

 

 

1.11

30.82

37.09

43.15

54.16

Dividend (HUF)

0.00

22.00

24.00

28.00

35.00

Revenue growth (%)

(17.2)

193.6

39.3

8.4

13.2

Gross Margin (%)

36.2

26.8

27.7

30.5

30.8

EBITDA Margin (%)

6.0

9.9

8.8

9.0

9.9

Normalised Operating Margin

1.7

8.1

7.4

7.7

8.6

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

1,571

1,948

3,757

6,223

8,093

Intangible Assets

1,221

1,525

2,752

4,881

6,442

Tangible Assets

140

322

781

1,119

1,427

Investments & other

210

101

223

223

223

Current Assets

 

 

6,824

22,161

33,925

30,310

32,764

Stocks

242

523

3,386

863

972

Debtors

4,306

12,892

17,407

17,071

19,322

Cash & cash equivalents

176

6,238

7,205

6,449

6,544

Other

2,101

2,508

5,926

5,926

5,926

Current Liabilities

 

 

(5,657)

(18,225)

(29,131)

(25,426)

(27,334)

Creditors

(3,894)

(16,361)

(25,648)

(21,943)

(23,851)

Tax and social security

0

0

0

0

0

Short term borrowings

(1,758)

(1,500)

(3,018)

(3,018)

(3,018)

Other (including finance lease liabilities)

(5)

(364)

(465)

(465)

(465)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(18)

(392)

(1,109)

(1,109)

(1,109)

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

(18)

(392)

(1,109)

(1,109)

(1,109)

Net Assets

 

 

2,720

5,493

7,441

9,998

12,414

Minority interests

0

64

(191)

64

64

Shareholders' equity

 

 

2,720

5,556

7,251

10,062

12,478

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

842

4,075

5,051

5,614

6,955

Working capital

(1,369)

3,587

(1,126)

(846)

(451)

Exceptional & other

(26)

(5)

(3)

0

0

Tax

(117)

(415)

(776)

(649)

(882)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

(671)

7,243

3,313

4,119

5,622

Capex

(120)

(1,471)

(2,522)

(2,516)

(2,784)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

3

206

0

0

Net interest

(11)

(13)

(39)

(142)

(157)

Equity financing

0

185

354

0

0

Equity financing

9

(356)

(104)

0

0

Dividends

0

0

(2,000)

(2,216)

(2,585)

Other

(3)

36

(88)

0

0

Net Cash Flow

(795)

5,626

(880)

(755)

95

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

792

1,587

(4,039)

(3,159)

(2,404)

FX

0

0

0

0

0

Other non-cash movements

0

0

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

1,587

(4,039)

(3,159)

(2,404)

(2,498)

Source: 4iG accounts, Edison Investment Research

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This report has been commissioned by 4iG and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by 4iG. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

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This report has been commissioned by 4iG and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by 4iG. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

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The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Quadrise Fuels International — Funding to cover completion of trial programmes

Quadrise has completed a placing raising £6.0m (gross) at 2.7p/share and announced an open offer raising up to £1.0m (gross), also at 2.7p/share, which closes on 22 March 2021. Management expects the net proceeds of the placing, together with the company’s existing cash resources, will give Quadrise the funds required to progress the ongoing trial programmes to commercial revenues and from there to sustained income and positive cash flows. They will also support the continued testing and development of Quadrise’s new renewable fuel, bioMSAR. Funds from the open offer will further strengthen the company’s balance sheet and provide additional project flexibility.

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