McBride — Resetting the business

McBride — Resetting the business

McBride has delivered a good performance over H121, with higher revenues and improved gross margins. Input costs have started to increase, but the board’s expectations for the full year are unchanged. The company gave an update on its new strategy, Programme Compass, and as previously announced, the business has been reorganised into product divisions to sharpen focus, improve execution and increase speed to market. McBride has been through several strategy resets over the years and time will tell if this successfully addresses the company’s long-term challenges. The CEO has thorough knowledge of the business and there are not expected to be substantial exceptional or capital costs associated with the programme.

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Written by

McBride

Resetting the business

Consumer

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26 February 2021

Price

81.8p

Market cap

£149m

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Share details

Code

MCB

Listing

LSE

Shares in issue

182.4m

Business description

McBride is Europe’s leading provider of private-label and contract-manufactured products for household and professional cleaning markets. Supplying Europe’s top retailers, it has production capability in 10 countries and is growing a presence in Central and Eastern Europe and South-East Asia.

Bull

Management focused on profitable growth.

Contract manufacturing continues to be a source of growth.

The Asian business continues to grow and the new Malaysian production facility is expected to be operational later this year.

Bear

Input costs are starting to increase again.

Private-label detergents continue to be an intensely competitive space.

Execution risks with the future strategy and turnaround programme.

Analysts

Sara Welford

+44 (0) 20 3077 5700

Russell Pointon

+44 (0) 20 3077 5700

McBride has delivered a good performance over H121, with higher revenues and improved gross margins. Input costs have started to increase, but the board’s expectations for the full year are unchanged. The company gave an update on its new strategy, Programme Compass, and as previously announced, the business has been reorganised into product divisions to sharpen focus, improve execution and increase speed to market. McBride has been through several strategy resets over the years and time will tell if this successfully addresses the company’s long-term challenges. The CEO has thorough knowledge of the business and there are not expected to be substantial exceptional or capital costs associated with the programme.

Good H1 performance

Group revenues were £362.9m in H1, 3.6% ahead of the prior year, or +1.7% at constant FX. Adjusted PBT was £16.9m, 74% above H120, and adjusted diluted EPS from continuing operations was 7.1p vs 3.7p in H120. The dividend policy has been reviewed as part of the strategy reset and no interim dividend was proposed. Demand levels continue to be more variable than usual due to the pandemic and there were some contract losses caused by McBride’s current lack of agility and speed. Management is seeking to address this by moving to a new structure.

New structure

The European household business has been reorganised into three business units from 1 January 2021: liquids, unit dosing and powders, to run alongside the existing divisions of Asia Pacific and aerosols. These will be supported by a smaller central structure. The headline objective is to reach €1bn of annual revenues in the next five years, with EBITA margins increasing by 200–400bp and ROCE improving by five to 10 percentage points. Progress is not expected to be linear over the next five years, with less growth expected in the initial two-year phase, as the focus is on cost reduction and readying the business for increased innovation and agility.

Valuation: Reflects balance of risk and opportunity

McBride trades on 7.1x FY21e P/E and 4.8x FY20e EV/EBITDA, which is a sharp discount to the household sector. A re-rating is conditional on the new strategy successfully delivering stable growth, improving margins and ensuring any cost savings and operating leverage fall through to the bottom line. The group is targeting an accounting basis net debt/EBITDA below 2x. Because this was 2.2x at December 2020, the board believes it is not prudent to pay an interim dividend. The board also intends to move to a single annual dividend payment (after FY results).

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(£m)

PBT
(£m)

EPS
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

06/19

721.3

24.5

9.7

3.3

8.7

4.0

06/20

706.2

24.2

9.5

1.1

8.6

1.3

06/21e

719.4

27.7

11.5

2.2

7.1

2.7

06/22e

728.1

29.4

11.6

2.3

7.1

2.8

Source: Refinitiv, company data

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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This report has been prepared and issued by Edison. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

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This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Research: Investment Companies

European Assets Trust — High income and improving performance

EEuropean Assets Trust (EAT) seeks to generate long-term capital growth by investing in a concentrated but diverse portfolio of small and medium-sized European companies. The trust has adopted a high distribution policy that pays a dividend of 6% of NAV as at the end of the preceding financial year. Managers Sam Cosh and Lucy Morris used the Q120 market sell-off to improve the quality of the portfolio and these changes are having a favourable impact on EAT’s performance. In the six months to end-January 2021, EAT made positive absolute gains, returning 23.7% in NAV terms, and outperformed the benchmark, which returned 22.2%. The trust has consistently outperformed the UK market over the past 10 years.

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