Releasing hidden value

e-Therapeutics 6 December 2018 Update
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e-Therapeutics

Releasing hidden value

Partnership update

Pharma & biotech

6 December 2018

Price

6.63p

Market cap

£18m

Net cash (£m) at 31 July 2018

7.6

Shares in issue

268.6m

Free float

44.6%

Code

ETX

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(11.7)

(19.7)

(27.4)

Rel (local)

(9.1)

(13.7)

(22.8)

52-week high/low

10.1p

5.9p

Business description

e-Therapeutics is a UK-based drug discovery company that has developed an in silico network-driven drug discovery platform. Following a strategic review by the new CEO, the focus is now on commercialisation: securing partners for its platform, discovery and development projects.

Next events

Partnering update

H218

FY18 results

March 2019

Analyst

Andy Smith

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

e-Therapeutics is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

e-Therapeutics (ETX) has announced an update on its collaboration with C4X Discovery (C4XD) on novel interventions in Parkinson’s disease (PD). The PD collaboration started in May 2018 and combines the network-driven drug discovery (NDD) platform at ETX with the genetic information from C4XD’s platform. This has already resulted in a number of avenues for novel drug target generation in PD.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

01/17

0.0

(14.1)

(4.1)

0.0

N/A

N/A

01/18

0.0

(6.7)

(2.0)

0.0

N/A

N/A

01/19e

0.0

(5.1)

(1.4)

0.0

N/A

N/A

01/20e

0.0

(4.0)

(1.1)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Early collaborative success

The May 2018 collaboration with C4XD has now generated results that could lead to novel drug targets for the treatment of PD. ETX applied its NDD technology to analyse a set of 200 genes which had been identified through C4XD’s Taxonomy3 genomics platform as potentially being implicated in the aetiology of PD. The ETX NDD platform identified gene products that are linked to the phenotypic pathophysiology of PD. This is a significant advance as efforts over the last two decades to use single nucleotide polymorphisms (which can distinguish between patients and healthy individuals) alone to identify new targets in PD and other diseases, have been largely unsuccessful. The ETX approach reflects the fact that many diseases are the result of interactions of multiple small differences which individually may be unimportant and may have been overlooked, but only a network-aware process can reveal. Complex diseases like PD, Alzheimer’s and multiple sclerosis involving more than one pathway should be more amenable to ETX’s more refined NDD approach.

Good business development ammunition

Significant progress in the PD collaboration may not yet be the announcement of a licensing transaction that investors have been patiently waiting for. It is, however, a further demonstration that ETX’s NDD platform might yield novel drug targets in PD and adds to its existing capabilities in the tryptophan catabolism and immune checkpoint modulator programmes. We expect ETX’s management to be in constant business development mode in selling the benefits of its platform and its two assets available for licensing, so this announcement on advances in a neurological indication can only aid that process.

Valuation: Unchanged for now

Our valuation included the median upfront value of a preclinical immunoncology transaction plus ETX’s market capitalisation. The latter represents a market valuation of ETX’s NDD platform, and the former represents the value of only one of two potential preclinical licensing transactions. Our valuation remains at £63.5m or 24p per share.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

£'000s

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

Year ending 31 January

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

0

0

0

0

R&D

(10,911)

(5,019)

(3,851)

(3,000)

G&A

(2,641)

(1,749)

(1,242)

(1,000)

EBITDA

 

 

(14,200)

(6,696)

(5,035)

(3,955)

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

(14,256)

(6,768)

(5,093)

(4,001)

Share-based payment

(99)

(105)

(60)

(50)

Operating profit

(16,456)

(6,873)

(5,153)

(4,050)

Net interest

132

49

23

15

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(14,124)

(6,719)

(5,070)

(3,986)

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(16,324)

(6,824)

(5,130)

(4,035)

Tax

3,073

1,360

1,355

1,000

Profit after tax (norm.)

(11,051)

(5,359)

(3,715)

(2,985)

Profit after tax (as reported)

(13,251)

(5,464)

(3,775)

(3,035)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

267.1

268.5

268.5

268.5

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

(4.1)

(2.0)

(1.4)

(1.1)

EPS - as reported (p)

 

 

(5.0)

(2.0)

(1.4)

(1.1)

Dividend per share (p)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

EBITDA margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Operating margin (before GW and except) (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed assets

 

 

207

206

197

171

Intangible assets

156

135

141

133

Tangible assets

51

71

56

38

Current assets

 

 

18,225

11,556

6,714

3,512

Stocks

0

0

0

0

Debtors

3,749

1,455

717

717

Cash

13,975

9,597

5,502

2,795

Other

501

504

495

0

Current liabilities

 

 

(1,951)

(1,024)

(704)

(452)

Creditors

(1,951)

(1,024)

(704)

(452)

Other creditors

0

0

0

0

Short-term borrowings

0

0

0

0

Long-term liabilities

 

 

0

0

0

0

Long-term borrowings

0

0

0

0

Deferred taxation

0

0

0

0

Other long-term liabilities

0

0

0

0

Net assets

 

 

16,481

10,738

6,207

3,231

CASH FLOW

Operating cash flow

 

 

(12,509)

(7,373)

(5,453)

(3,702)

Net interest

194

86

23

15

Tax

3,073

2,968

1,355

1,000

Capex

(22)

(66)

(5)

(5)

Purchase of intangibles

(143)

(5)

(15)

(15)

Acquisitions/disposals

(1,473)

0

0

0

Financing

13

12

0

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

Net cash flow

(10,867)

(4,378)

(4,095)

(2,707)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(24,842)

(13,975)

(9,597)

(5,502)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(13,975)

(9,597)

(5,502)

(2,795)

Source: e-therapeutics, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by e-Therapeutics and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by e-Therapeutics. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 427484). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a) (11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by e-Therapeutics and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by e-Therapeutics. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 427484). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a) (11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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