Q119 results

PDL BioPharma 15 May 2019 Update
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PDL BioPharma

Q119 results

Financial update

Pharma & biotech

15 May 2019

Price

US$3.14

Market cap

US$379m

Net cash ($m) at 31 March 2019

216.3

Shares in issue

120.7m

Free float

90.6%

Code

PDLI

Primary exchange

NASDAQ

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(17.4)

(2.8)

12.5

Rel (local)

(15.2)

(5.8)

8.4

52-week high/low

US$3.85

US$2.28

Business description

PDL BioPharma currently has a collection of healthcare-related royalty and note assets as well as Tekturna/Rasilez for hypertension. PDL is seeking additional commercial-stage pharmaceutical assets with multiple-year revenue growth potential, as well as late clinical-stage pharmaceutical products.

Next events

China Rasilez launch

Q219

Evofem NDA filing

Q419

Analysts

Maxim Jacobs

+1 646 653 7027

Nathaniel Calloway

+1 646 653 7036

PDL BioPharma is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

PDL BioPharma reported Q119 revenues of $38.9, up 1.0% compared to Q118. Going forward, the company indicated that it would be working intensely to maximize its investment in Evofem, a women’s health company that is preparing to submit an NDA for Amphora, a non-hormonal female contraceptive, in Q419 with a launch expected in H120. The company also announced that it has bought back $80.3m worth of its shares since the beginning of the $100m stock repurchase program announced last September.

Year
end

Revenue
($m)

PBT*
($m)

EPS*
($)

DPS
($)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/17

320.1

200.3

0.81

0.00

3.9

N/A

12/18

198.1

78.8

0.45

0.00

7.0

N/A

12/19e

123.5

34.7

0.21

0.00

15.0

N/A

12/20e

125.7

37.5

0.24

0.00

13.1

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Investing in Evofem

PDL announced in April that it had entered into a securities purchase agreement with Evofem, a Nasdaq-listed women’s health company that is developing a non-hormonal contraceptive product. PDL will invest up to $60m in two tranches of $30m each, the first of which is already invested and the second expected to be invested by 10 June 2019 at the company’s discretion. Assuming the investment of both tranches, PDL will own approximately 29% of Evofem and will also have a board seat to help actively manage its investment and provide assistance/expertise.

Evofem targeting a very large market

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 61.7% of the 60.9 million women aged 15–44 use contraception. Almost half of those use either short- or long-acting hormonal oral contraceptive pills or devices such as a ring or a patch. According to EvaluatePharma, $6.5bn worth of hormonal contraceptives were sold in 2018.

Tekturna generic launched in the US

The company announced that a generic version of Tekturna was recently launched by Anchen Pharmaceuticals, which is currently competing with the branded version of the product and the authorized generic that was launched by Prasco Laboratories in March. With this in mind, the company plans to terminate all promotional efforts in H219.

Valuation: $789m or $6.54 per share

We have adjusted our valuation from $816m or $6.37 per basic share to $789m or $6.54 per share. The decrease in value is mainly due to a lower net cash level, while the higher per-share value is due to the lower number of shares outstanding as a result of the share repurchase program.

Earnings update

PDL reported Q119 revenues of $38.9m, up 1.0% compared to Q118 and down 13.8% sequentially, partially due to chargeback payments associated with the Assertio royalties. Noden net revenue was $20m in the quarter, up 9.2% compared to Q118 and up 6.4% sequentially. The strength is mainly due to the US business as it also includes some stocking of the authorized generic ($2.8m out of the $12.2m in US sales was stocking at partner Prasco Laboratories). In total, $5.4m (44%) of US Tekturna sales were associated with the authorized generic. With both the generic from Anchen and authorized generic competing with branded Tekturna, the company has decided to eliminate all promotional activities associated with the product in the second half of this year to help maintain profitability (Noden generated $5.6m in profits in the quarter). Also, as a reminder, Lee’s Pharmaceutical Holdings, which has licensed the rights to Tekturna/Rasilez from Noden for China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, is on track to launch in China imminently. Our current forecasts do not include any revenues for Tekturna/Rasilez in China, so any meaningful sales there could provide additional upside.

Additionally, LENSAR generated revenues of $6.7m in Q418, up 35.0% compared to last year. However, profitability deteriorated slightly with a quarterly loss of $1.2m compared to a $0.6m loss in the same quarter last year.

Evofem

As a reminder, PDL recently announced that it had entered into a securities purchase agreement with Evofem, a Nasdaq-listed women’s health company that is developing a non-hormonal contraceptive product. PDL will invest up to $60m in two tranches of $30m each, with the first being invested in April and the second by 10 June 2019. Both tranches will have the same terms, a purchase price of $4.50 per share (a 26% premium to Evofem’s closing price on the day before the investment was announced, although approximately a 30% discount to the company’s current stock price) for 6,666,667 shares, with 1,666,667 warrants and an exercise price of $6.38 per share. Additionally, Woodford, which owns 9.6m shares (~34% of the company pre-PDL deal) of the company, and Invesco, which owns 9.2m shares (~33% of the company pre-PDL deal), have an opportunity to invest up to $10m each on the same terms as PDL (according to the agreement, if either declines to invest, the other partners, including PDL, could invest the non-participating investor’s portion at the same terms). Following the investment of the first tranche, PDL owns approximately 19% of the company and will own 29% of Evofem, assuming it, Woodford and Invesco all exercise their rights to invest in the second tranche. PDL will receive a board seat so that it can actively manage and assist Evofem, with regards to both business development and commercialization.

The company had previously indicated that it was looking at pre-commercial opportunities, with which this fits in well. The structure is especially appealing as it does provide the promise of substantial returns, but with the downside capped at either $30m or $60m if Evofem does not live up to expectations. However, PDL indicated that future deals may have different structures based on what is optimal in that instance.

Valuation

We have adjusted our valuation from $816m or $6.37 per basic share to $789m or $6.54 per share. The decrease in value is mainly due to a lower net cash level, while the per-share value has increased as the company is in the middle of a $100m share repurchase program, which was announced last September, and has so far deployed $80m of that to buy back 24.5m shares (it now has 8.1m fewer shares than at the time of the Q418 earnings release). We have also increased the Lensar NPV by $5.4m due to a slightly higher revenue run rate. Additionally, we have lowered Noden’s value by $4.2m due to advancing the NPV and as the cash flows of the business post-generic competition will be much lower.

Exhibit 1: PDL valuation table

Royalty/note

Type

Expiration year

PDL balance sheet carrying value ($m)

NPV ($m)

Assertio (formerly Depomed)

Royalty on Glumetza and other products

2024

$263.8

$271.1

VB

Royalty on Spine Implant

Undisclosed

$14.2

$14.7

University of Michigan

Royalty on Cerdelga

2022

$25.1

$12.8

Wellstat

Note (Impaired)

Unknown

$50.2

$50.2

Hyperion

Note (Impaired)

Unknown

$1.2

$1.2

Lensar

Equity

N/A

$61.6

AcelRx

Royalty on Zalviso

2027

$72.5

$73.7

Careview

Note (limpaired)

2022

$11.5

$11.5

Noden

Equity

N/A

$36.4

$15.7

Kybella

Royalty

Unknown

$0.6

$0.7

Evofem

Equity

N/A

N/A

$89.0

Total

 

 

 

$602

Net cash (Q119 less Evofem investment) ($m)

$186.3

Total firm value ($m)

$789

Total basic shares (m)

120.7

Value per basic share ($)

$6.54

Total options

0.8

Total number of shares

121.4

Diluted value per share ($)

$6.49

Source: Edison Investment Research

Financials

We have made minor adjustments to our revenue estimates, increasing them by $1.0m in FY19 and $1.2m in FY20 mainly due to slightly higher Lensar expectations. We have also increased our SG&A estimates from $35.2m to $49.7m for FY19 and from $36.6m to $51.6m for FY20 as SG&A spending has rebounded from Q418 and we are assuming a higher run rate going forward. The company ended the quarter with $366.3m in cash ($216.3m in net cash). Taking into account the $30m invested in Evofem, the net cash level is $186.3m.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

$000s

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

Year end 31 December

US GAAP

US GAAP

US GAAP

US GAAP

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

320,060

198,110

123,545

125,697

Cost of Sales

(30,537)

(48,460)

(31,629)

(29,814)

Gross Profit

289,523

149,650

91,917

95,883

General & Administrative

(63,324)

(62,559)

(49,655)

(51,641)

EBITDA

 

 

218,818

84,136

39,047

41,027

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

218,818

84,136

39,047

41,027

Intangible Amortisation

(24,689)

(15,831)

(6,288)

(6,288)

Other

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

(349)

(118,899)

0

0

Operating Profit

193,780

(50,594)

32,759

34,739

Net Interest

(18,562)

(5,328)

(4,324)

(3,574)

Other

9,309

0

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

200,256

78,808

34,723

37,452

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

184,527

(55,922)

28,435

31,164

Tax

(73,826)

(12,937)

(8,486)

(6,545)

Deferred tax

(0)

(0)

(0)

(0)

Profit After Tax (norm)

126,430

65,871

26,237

30,908

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

110,701

(68,859)

19,949

24,620

Minority interest

(47)

0

0

0

Profit After Tax less Minority Interest (FRS 3)

110,654

(68,859)

19,949

24,620

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

155.4

145.7

123.6

128.5

EPS - normalised ($)

 

 

0.81

0.45

0.21

0.24

EPS - FRS 3 ($)

 

 

0.71

(0.47)

0.16

0.19

Dividend per share (c)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Gross Margin (%)

90.5

75.5

74.4

76.3

EBITDA Margin (%)

68.4

42.5

31.6

32.6

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

68.4

42.5

31.6

32.6

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

602,680

446,519

374,177

324,271

Intangible Assets

215,823

51,319

49,746

49,746

Tangible Assets

7,222

7,387

7,236

8,493

Royalty rights

349,223

376,510

274,211

223,048

Other

30,412

11,303

42,984

42,984

Current Assets

 

 

640,443

517,217

517,022

614,721

Stocks

0

0

0

0

Debtors

31,183

21,648

15,739

15,739

Cash

527,266

394,590

405,800

503,499

Other

81,994

100,979

95,483

95,483

Current Liabilities

 

 

(193,109)

(52,470)

(43,318)

(43,297)

Creditors

(19,785)

(13,142)

(12,430)

(12,430)

Short term borrowings

(126,066)

0

0

0

Other

(47,258)

(39,328)

(30,888)

(30,867)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(204,124)

(181,487)

(186,431)

(186,431)

Long term borrowings

(117,415)

(124,644)

(126,567)

(126,567)

Other long term liabilities

(86,709)

(56,843)

(59,864)

(59,864)

Net Assets

 

 

845,890

729,779

661,450

709,264

Minority Interests

0

0

0

0

Shareholder equity

 

 

845,890

729,779

661,450

709,264

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

40,624

(13,425)

(2,363)

(3,370)

Net Interest

0

0

0

0

Tax

0

0

0

0

Capex

(1,297)

(4,523)

(168)

(1,257)

Acquisitions/disposals

128,415

57,969

89,100

102,325

Financing

0

0

0

0

Dividends

(222)

(48)

0

0

Other

212,592

(46,202)

(75,359)

0

Net Cash Flow

380,112

(6,229)

11,210

97,699

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

85,289

(283,785)

(269,946)

(279,233)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Exchange rate movements

0

0

0

0

Other

(11,038)

(7,610)

(1,923)

(0)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(283,785)

(269,946)

(279,233)

(376,932)

Source: Edison Investment Research, PDL BioPharma reports

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by PDL BioPharma and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by PDL BioPharma. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a) (11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

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London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

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New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

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Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by PDL BioPharma and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by PDL BioPharma. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 427484). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a) (11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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