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Positioning for growth

Regional REIT 1 October 2021 Update
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Regional REIT

Positioning for growth

H121 results

Real estate

1 October 2021

Price

88.4p

Market cap

£456m

Net debt (£m) at 30 June 2021

290.4

Net LTV (%) at 30 June 2021

39.8

Shares in issue

515.7m

Free float

99%

Code

RGL

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(0.9)

3.0

35.0

Rel (local)

0.4

1.9

9.1

52-week high/low

92.0p

59.8p

Business description

Regional REIT is focused on office assets (more than 90%), located in the regional centres of the UK, highly diversified by property, tenants and the underlying industry exposure of those tenants. It is actively managed and targets a total shareholder return of at least 10% with a strong focus on income.

Next events

Q321 trading update

11 November 2021

Analyst

Martyn King

+44 (0)20 3077 5745

Regional REIT is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Despite the pandemic and its impact on office occupation, Regional REIT’s (RGL) H121 performance was robust. A stand-out feature was the continuing strong rent collection, underpinning the high level of income distribution. The portfolio has been repositioned for earnings and dividend growth from good quality, affordable regional offices, with RGL expecting a steady near-term performance and acceleration from late 2022.

Year end

Net rental
income (£m)

EPRA
earnings* (£m)

EPRA
EPS* (p)

EPRA NTA**/
share (p)

DPS
(p)

P/NTA
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/19

55.0

31.0

7.8

112.6

8.25

0.79

9.3

12/20

53.3

27.9

6.5

98.6

6.40

0.90

7.2

12/21e

56.3

30.3

6.6

96.9

6.50

0.91

7.4

12/22e

64.0

35.1

6.8

98.0

6.70

0.90

7.6

Note: *EPRA earnings exclude revaluation movements, gains/losses on disposal and other non-recurring items. EPRA EPS is fully diluted. **EPRA net tangible assets (NTA) per share. EPS and NTA are fully diluted.

Rent collection underpinning dividends

EPRA earnings and EPS increased more than 15% y-o-y and H121 rent collection is now more than 99%. This provides strong underpinning to H121 quarterly dividends amounting to 3.2p per share, with RGL confidently targeting 6.5p for the year. H121 EPRA NTA per share increased 1.0% to 99.1p, including the benefit of a 0.4% like-for-like increase in property valuation, and including DPS paid the six-month total return was 3.6% (7.2% annualised). Significant transaction activity since the period end adds scale, income growth potential and further diversification. LTV (39.8% at end-H121) rises to 43.8% but RGL expects to bring this back towards its 40% target over the next 12–18 months. Net acquisitions increase our forecasts for rental income and EPRA earnings but allowing for the higher share count EPRA EPS is slightly reduced due to more cautious like-for-like assumptions.

Regional office focus

RGL believes strongly in the future for offices, especially good quality regional assets with affordable rents, which is now the focus of investment following significant transaction activity since the end of H121. Taking advantage of investor enthusiasm for industrial assets and what it sees as a mispricing for quality regional offices RGL has sold most of its industrial holdings and acquired a significant and complementary portfolio of high-quality regional office assets. Sales include a £45m portfolio at a 7.5% premium to the start-year valuation and reflecting a net initial yield of 6.75%. The office portfolio was acquired for £236m at a net initial yield of 7.8% and reversionary yield of 11.0%, providing attractive immediate income with good growth opportunities. The transaction was settled with a relatively modest new equity outlay (including £83.1m of new shares issued at EPRA NTA) and seems well-timed with office valuations appearing to have stabilised.

Valuation: High yield and fully covered dividend

RGL continues to offer one of the highest yields in the UK REIT sector, with dividends fully covered by EPRA earnings. Its FY21e yield of 7.4% is significantly above close peers, supporting a below-average P/NTA (c 11% versus c 20%).

Robust earnings and strong rent collection underpinning dividend pay-out

Amidst the global pandemic and its impacts on office occupation, H121 was robust. A standout feature of the results was the continuing strength of rent collection. As of 10 September 2021, the H121 rent collection rate was 99.0% (comprising 96.8% received, 0.4% of remaining monthly paid rents and 1.8% of agreed deals), supporting strong income returns. Quarterly dividends amounting to 3.2p per share were declared for H121 (lower than the 3.4p declared for H120 because of an FY20 skew towards Q1201) and for the year RGL expects to declare 6.5p of DPS (FY20: 6.4p), fully covered by EPRA earnings. This implies higher earnings in H2 versus H1, which largely reflects the normal seasonal skew of rental and related income to H2. H121 EPRA net tangible assets (NTA) per share increased 1.0% to 99.1p compared with 98.6p at end-FY20 and including dividends paid the six-month EPRA NTA total return was 3.6% or c 7.2% annualised. To end-H121 the cumulative accounting total return2 since IPO was 39.9% or a compound average annual return of 6.1%, all generated by dividends paid. The FTSE EPRA NAREIT UK Index has returned an aggregate 4.7% or 0.8% pa over the same period. RGL’s H121 six-month total return was 3.6% or an annualised 7.3%, 87% of which reflected dividends paid.

In FY20, RGL paid a Q1 DPS of 1.9p and three further quarterly DPS of 1.5p. For FY21 RGL plans to revert to its normal pattern of three equal quarterly dividends and a (usually) higher Q4 DPS.

The change in EPRA NTA per share plus DPS paid but not reinvested.

Exhibit 1: Summary of H121 financial performance

£m unless stated otherwise

H121

H120

H121/H221

H220

Rental and related income

29.5

29.4

0.3%

32.6

Non-recoverable property costs

(4.2)

(5.4)

-22.5%

(3.4)

Net rental income

25.4

24.1

5.4%

29.2

Administrative & other expenses

(5.5)

(5.9)

-7.9%

(5.4)

Operating profit before gains/(losses) on property

19.9

18.1

9.7%

23.8

Unrealised and realised property gains/(losses)

2.5

(35.3)

(20.8)

Operating profit

22.4

(17.1)

3.0

Net finance expense

(6.9)

(7.0)

(7.0)

Impairment of goodwill

0.0

(0.3)

(0.3)

Change in fair value of interest rate derivative

2.6

(2.6)

0.0

Profit before tax

18.0

(27.0)

(4.2)

Tax

0.0

0.1

0.1

IFRS Net profit

18.0

(27.0)

(4.0)

Adjust for:

Unrealised and realised property gains/(losses)

(2.5)

35.3

20.8

Impairment of goodwill

0.0

0.3

0.3

Change in fair value of interest rate derivative

(2.6)

2.6

(0.0)

EPRA earnings

13.0

11.2

16.3%

17.0

Basic IFRS EPS (p)

4.2

(6.2)

(0.9)

Diluted EPRA EPS (p)

3.0

2.6

16.8%

3.9

DPS (p)

3.2

3.4

-5.9%

3.0

Diluted EPRA NTA per share (p)

99.1

102.6

98.6

Investment properties

729.1

742.3

-1.8%

732.4

Net debt

(290.4)

(294.8)

(298.8)

Net LTV

39.8%

39.7%

40.8%

Source: Regional REIT data, Edison Investment Research

Key features of the H121 results included:

Rental and other property income of £29.5m was at a similar level to H120 (£29.4m) but was lower than in H220, largely reflecting seasonality. H2 includes more rent days than H1 (partly the calendar but also the timing of quarterly rent days) while non-rental income such as dilapidation payments and surrender payments are typically agreed towards the year end. RGL expects a similar pattern this year, about which it already has significant visibility.

Net rental income of £25.4m was ahead of H120 (£24.1m) due to lower non-recoverable property costs.

Administrative expenses were also lower year-on-year, primarily the result of lower investment and asset management fees which reduced in line with average net asset value.

Operating profit before property valuation movements increased by almost 10% and the EPRA cost ratio of 32.6% was at a similar level to FY20 and down from 38.4% in H120.

With borrowings and interest expense at a broadly similar level, EPRA earnings increased c 16% to £13.0m from £11.2m in H120.

IFRS earnings and net asset value (NAV) also benefited from realised and unrealised property gains of £2.6m and a positive £2.6m fair value movement in interest rate derivatives used to hedge interest rate risk.

The investment portfolio was externally valued at £729.1m at end-H121, slightly down from £732.4m at end-FY20. Valuations increased by 0.4% on a like-for-like basis, benefiting from property sales and completed asset management projects feeding through. Additionally, capex added £4.3m, yet to be reflected in the valuation, offset by net disposals.

The net loan to value ratio (LTV) at end-H121 was 39.8%, in line with the 40% target (and a maximum 50%) but has since increased to c 43.8%3 due to the significant post-H121 transactions detailed below. RGL says that it has a clear path back to its target level of 40% over the next 12–18 months. This is likely to include further non-core asset sales although we expect management to seek satisfactory pricing rather than engaging in any sort ‘fire sale’.

On a pro-forma basis using end-H121 valuations and adjusting for the impact of acquisitions and disposals.

Post-H121 transactions add scale and increase office focus with enhanced income growth opportunities

Having previously invested in both multi-let regional industrial assets and offices4 RGL decided to further refocus the portfolio towards regional offices. This reflected its view that its industrial assets offered little remaining income upside compared with the opportunities that it could identify in the office sector. Significant transaction activity since the end of H121 has substantially achieved this aim and has added considerable scale, with an attractive initial yield and significant income growth potential. Compared with end-H121, the portfolio value has increased by 24% to c £905m5 and the industrial assets, the focus of sales year to date, have reduced from 11% of the total value to 4%. Regional office assets now represent c 91% of the portfolio and non-core assets, including the rump of the industrial assets, c 9%.

94.6% by value of the end-FY20 portfolio with the balance non-core.

The current valuation, estimated by RGL, represents the end-H121 valuation adjusted for subsequent acquisitions and sales.

Exhibit 2: Portfolio composition impact of post-H121 acquisitions and disposals

30 June 2021 (H121)

Post-H121 acquisitions

Post-H121 disposals

Current position*

Sector

Properties

Valuation (£m)

% val.

Properties

Valuation (£m)

% val.

Properties

Valuation (£m)

% val.

Properties

Valuation (£m)

% val.

Office

114

607.0

83.3%

27

222.2

93.4%

1

9.1

14.5%

140

820.1

90.6%

Industrial

15

82.6

11.3%

2

11.7

4.9%

10

53.2

85.5%

7

41.1

4.5%

Retail

20

29.7

4.1%

1

1.6

0.7%

0

0.0

0.0%

21

31.3

3.5%

Other

2

9.9

1.4%

1

2.6

1.1%

0

0.0

0.0%

3

12.5

1.4%

Portfolio total

151

729.1

100.0%

31

238.0

100.0%

11

62.2

100.0%

171

904.9

100.0%

Source: Regional REIT

RGL believes strongly in the future for offices within the commercial market universe, especially good quality regional assets with affordable rents. RGL’s asset manager, London & Scottish Property Investment Management, has recently underlined this by acquiring c 1.1m RGL shares, an investment of c £1m. While RGL’s enlarged portfolio is now effectively fully focused on the sector, it retains a high level of diversification to mitigate income risks. It comprises more than 170 properties spread across the regions and let to more than 900 tenants operating in a wide range of sectors that can fairly be said to reflect the broad spread of the UK economy.

Aggregate disposals since H121 of £62.2m include the £45.0m sale of a seven-asset industrial portfolio at a 7.5% premium to the start-year valuation and reflecting a net initial yield of 6.75%. This was followed, on 31 August 2021, by the significant acquisition of a portfolio of 31 predominantly multi-let office assets for £236.0m (before acquisition costs) from Squarestone Growth. The price paid for the assets reflected a net initial yield of 7.8% and reversionary yield of 11.0%. The transaction was settled with a relatively modest new equity outlay and appears well-timed with office valuations appearing to have stabilised. The consideration comprised £83.1m of new shares (issued at 98.6p, representing the EPRA NTA at the time despite the shares trading at a c 15% discount), existing cash resources including the proceeds of recent disposals, and additional borrowing of £76.2m.

The Squarestone portfolio adds high quality and complementary assets

RGL was primarily attracted by the quality of the assets acquired, their complementarity with the existing portfolio, and the significant asset management opportunity they provide.

The portfolio assets comprise 27, geographically well-spread regional offices (93.3% by value), two industrial units, a residential asset and a drive-thru restaurant. The initial income is attractive with the £21.9m contracted rent roll reflected in a net initial yield of 7.8% and with EPRA occupancy of 78.8% and reversionary yield of 11.0% there is significant opportunity to increase income over time. The capital value per square foot of c £136 is similar to the average of RGL’s existing office portfolio and the asset manager estimates this represents a c 30% discount to replacement value. Similarly, rents on the portfolio are set at an affordable level, an average £13.4 per square foot (RGL’s existing office assets averaged c £13.8 at end-H121) with potential upside to an estimated market level of c £15.0 per square foot (RGL: £13.9).

By income, 75% of the acquired assets are in locations where RGL is already represented and where it has identified attractive long-term prospects. The balance is in locations where RGL is not currently represented but where it is happy to be so. In addition to enhancing asset and geographical diversification, only 30% of the rent roll is derived from existing RGL tenants, creating a broader spread of income for the enlarged portfolio.

Offices are re-opening and RGL remains positive

RGL says that it has seen a gradual return to the office, accelerating since the schools re-opened in September, and that most tenants have now re-opened. It is awaiting robust data on the level of physical occupation (how many staff are now back working in those offices) but estimates that is in the range of 40–50%. Most tenants are expected to adopt a hybrid model of working, at least initially, whereby employees spend perhaps three days per week (typically Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) in the office and two days at home. Hybrid working is unlikely to materially reduce space requirements as it must cater for peak usage. As an alternative, hot desking is typically unpopular with staff, who value their own space, the certainty of being in proximity to close colleagues and may stifle the collaboration and creativity required by many employers. RGL expects any reduction in the demand for space driven by changes in working practices is likely to be offset by a reduction in office density (the number of employees per square meter), accelerating a trend that was in place prior to the pandemic. This is likely to apply particularly to good quality space at affordable rents. The trend has been driven by a recognition that to retain and attract staff, in many industries it is necessary for employers to offer better facilities (including relaxation areas and space for collaborative working and informal discussion) and quality accommodation. Social distancing, driven by the pandemic, is only likely to reinforce this trend.

RGL is attracted by the relatively high yields that are available on regional offices, a combination of low rents, low capital values, well below new build cost, at a level that has inhibited most new development in recent years. Meanwhile, re-purposing of existing space towards residential, student and hotel accommodation, has worked to reduce supply. Structural demand factors remain in place, such as office migration from (more expensive) London to the regions and the political goal of rebalancing economic activity from South England to the North likely to remain, possibly reinforced by a shift to ‘localism’ (smaller, regional offices located in towns and cities outside the capital).

RGL remains very positive on the outlook for regional offices and has positioned the portfolio for growth. At H121 its office portfolio contained £13.5m of reversionary income potential from current contracted rent to the full occupancy market level estimated rental value (ERV). We estimate that the Squarestone portfolio acquisition has added between £5–7m to this. RGL recognises that in current market conditions, this may take some time to come through and expects occupier demand and earnings to FY22 to be relatively flat the second half of FY21 and into FY22, followed by a strong improvement later in FY22 and through FY23.

Financials

Since our last published forecasts, the significant expansion of the portfolio has a material impact on net rental income and EPRA earnings on a full year basis in FY22e. In per share terms (the average number of shares in FY22e increases by c 19%) there is a slight reduction in EPRA EPS, with the accretive impact of the transactions offset by a reduction in our underlying, like-for-like, forecast. Or forecast growth in DPS is also slightly reduced in line with EPRA EPS. The slight reduction in forecast EPRA NTA balances the impact of substantial transaction-related acquisition costs (mostly land transfer tax) with a slightly more positive underlying valuation assumption. We introduce a FY23 forecast for the first time.

Exhibit 3: Estimate revisions

Net rental income (£m)

EPRA earnings (£m)

EPRA EPS (p)

EPRA NTA (p)

DPS (p)

New

Old

% chg.

New

Old

% chg.

New

Old

% chg.

New

Old

% chg.

New

Old

% chg.

12/21e

56.3

53.6

5.1

30.3

28.9

4.7

6.6

6.7

(1.2)

96.9

99.1

(2.2)

6.50

6.60

(1.5)

12/22e

64.0

55.3

15.8

35.1

30.4

15.4

6.8

7.0

(3.5)

98.0

99.4

(1.4)

6.70

6.90

(2.9)

12/23e

65.9

N/A

N/A

36.9

N/A

N/A

7.2

N/A

N/A

100.0

N/A

N/A

7.10

N/A

N/A

Source: Edison Investment Research

The driver of our forecasts is net rental income which includes the net positive impact of the portfolio transactions, assumes a flat portfolio ERV and unchanged EPRA occupancy6 from the H121 level of 85.7% (we previously assumed an increase to 91% by end-FY22). We are now expecting a gentle recovery in leasing activity through FY22 and accelerating through FY23. This includes an impact from property refurbishment (including the soon to be vacated Tay House property with £2.7m gross rent roll from a total of £61.1m at end-H12, since increased by net acquisitions) which reduces near-term income until completed and the property re-let. This is not reflected in the EPRA occupancy rate from which properties under development/ refurbishment are excluded. We anticipate a pick-up in the pace of earnings and dividend growth through FY23.

The ERV of vacant space as % of the portfolio ERV, adjusted for properties under development/refurbishment.

The weakness in office valuation in FY20 was based more on valuer sentiment, with reduced investment volumes causing a dearth of transactional evidence. RGL says that valuations appear to have bottomed and stabilised but that any material uplift may not occur until 2022 as the occupier market strengthens. We have assumed a modest 0.5% pa positive property revaluation movement. This seeks to balance our flat ERV and EPRA occupancy assumptions with the consensus view that office valuations may increase by c 2% pa during 2022 and 20237. In 2021e this is offset by acquisition costs. We estimate that most of the valuation gains locked in by the significant asset sales since end-H121 were reflected in the H121 balance sheet, but we include H221 realised gains of c £1.5m. We estimate that a 1% increase/decrease in the FY21e value of investment properties increases/decreases EPRA NTA by c 1.8%.

Investment Property Forum (IPF) UK consensus forecasts, September 2021.

We have not assumed further non-core asset sales. If the proceeds are not reinvested this would likely reduce rental income but also reduce gearing.

Valuation

Active management driving income-led total returns

Long-term commercial property returns are substantially driven by income, which have historically been relatively consistent compared with more volatile capital values. In this context, RGL aims to provide an attractive total return to shareholders with a strong focus on income. With the exception of FY20, due to the pandemic, total return has been positive in each year since IPO, amounting to 39.9% or a compound average annual return of 6.1%, all generated by dividends paid.

Exhibit 4: NAV total return

2015*

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

H121

Since IPO

Opening EPRA NAV per share (p)

100.0

106.8

106.1

105.4

115.2

112.6

98.6

100.0

Closing EPRA NTA* per share (p)

106.8

106.1

105.4

115.2

112.6

98.6

99.1

99.1

Dividends per share paid (p)

0.00

6.25

7.80

8.00

8.20

7.45

3.1

40.80

NAV total return (%)

6.8%

5.1%

6.7%

16.8%

4.9%

-5.8%

3.6%

39.9%

Compound return (%)

6.1%

Source: Regional REIT data. Note: *55-day period from IPO on 6 November 2015.

RGL’s high dividend yield continues to be at the very top end of both this narrow peer group and the broad UK property sector (we estimate c 4.0% on a trailing basis), particularly in respect of covered dividends. Quarterly dividend payments were maintained during the worst period of the pandemic, albeit at a reduced level, and RGL targets a 6.5p DPS for FY21, a 1.6% increase on FY20 (6.4p). The FY21e DPS represents a yield of 7.4% while the shares trade at an 11% discount to H121 EPRA NTA per share.

In Exhibit 5 we show a comparison with a narrow group of peers that are similarly focused on regional commercial property. To ease comparison, the data is based on 12-month trailing DPS declared and last published EPTA NTA/NAV. RGL’s c 7% trailing yield is well above the peer group average, reflected in a slightly higher than average P/NAV.

Exhibit 5: Peer comparison

Price
(p)

Market cap (£m)

P/NAV* (x)

Yield**
(%)

Share price performance (%)

1 month

3 months

12 months

From 12m high

Circle Property

205

59

0.72

2.7

0%

5%

32%

-6%

Custodian

93

391

0.95

4.8

-4%

-4%

6%

-13%

Picton

95

518

0.95

3.3

-4%

8%

51%

-4%

Real Estate Investors

41

73

0.70

9.3

-2%

1%

50%

-6%

Schroder REIT

49

242

0.78

5.1

-4%

3%

53%

-7%

Palace Capital

245

113

0.71

4.1

-6%

-8%

35%

-13%

UK Commercial Property REIT

74

955

0.81

3.7

-8%

-5%

10%

-13%

BMO Commercial Property Trust

96

770

0.77

4.4

-4%

6%

47%

-6%

BMO Real Estate Investments

72

174

0.73

4.9

-3%

-2%

36%

-11%

Average

0.80

5.0

-4%

0%

36%

-9%

Regional REIT

88

456

0.89

7.0

-1%

3%

35%

-5%

UK property sector index

1,815

-8%

3%

27%

-9%

UK equity market index

4,059

-2%

0%

23%

-2%

Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research, Refinitiv prices as at 1 October 2021. Note: *Based on last reported EPRA NTA or NAV per share. **Based on trailing 12-month DPS declared.

Exhibit 6: Financial summary

Year end 31 December (£m)

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

2023e

INCOME STATEMENT

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

Rental & other income

62.1

64.4

62.1

66.0

77.0

78.1

Non-recoverable property costs

(7.7)

(9.4)

(8.8)

(9.7)

(13.0)

(12.2)

Net rental & related income

54.4

55.0

53.3

56.3

64.0

65.9

Administrative expenses (excluding performance fees)

(10.5)

(10.9)

(11.3)

(11.3)

(12.3)

(12.4)

Performance fees

(7.0)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

EBITDA

36.8

44.1

42.0

45.0

51.7

53.5

EPRA cost ratio

40.1%

31.6%

32.4%

28.8%

32.9%

31.5%

EPRA cost ratio excluding performance fee

28.6%

31.6%

32.4%

28.8%

32.9%

31.5%

Gain on disposal of investment properties

23.1

1.7

(1.1)

2.1

0.0

0.0

Change in fair value of investment properties

23.9

(3.5)

(54.8)

(12.6)

4.6

9.3

Change in fair value of right to use asset

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

83.8

42.0

(14.1)

34.3

56.1

62.6

Net finance expense

(15.7)

(13.7)

(14.0)

(14.5)

(16.4)

(16.4)

Fair value movement in interest rate derivatives & goodwill impairment

(0.1)

(2.0)

(3.1)

2.6

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax

67.9

26.3

(31.2)

22.4

39.7

46.2

Tax

(0.6)

0.3

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

67.4

26.5

(31.0)

22.4

39.7

46.2

Adjusted for the following:

Net gain/(loss) on revaluation/disposal of investment properties

(47.0)

1.9

55.9

10.5

(4.6)

(9.3)

Other EPRA adjustments

0.5

2.6

3.0

(2.6)

0.0

0.0

EPRA earnings

20.9

31.0

27.9

30.3

35.1

36.9

Performance fees

7.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Adjusted earnings

27.9

31.0

27.9

30.3

35.1

36.9

Period end number of shares (m)

372.8

431.5

431.5

515.7

515.7

515.7

Fully diluted average number of shares outstanding (m)

372.8

398.9

431.5

457.1

515.7

515.7

IFRS EPS - fully diluted (p)

18.1

6.6

(7.2)

4.9

7.7

9.0

EPRA EPS, fully diluted (p)

5.6

7.8

6.5

6.6

6.8

7.2

Adjusted EPS (p)

7.5

7.8

6.5

6.6

6.8

7.2

Dividend per share (p)

8.05

8.25

6.40

6.50

6.70

7.10

Dividend cover

93.1%

94.2%

101.0%

101.9%

101.5%

100.8%

BALANCE SHEET

Non-current assets

720.9

806.0

749.5

927.2

943.6

964.7

Investment properties

718.4

787.9

732.4

910.4

927.0

948.3

Other non-current assets

2.5

18.1

17.2

16.8

16.6

16.4

Current Assets

127.0

69.4

101.1

80.9

74.6

65.6

Other current assets

22.2

32.2

33.7

28.9

29.2

29.8

Cash and equivalents

104.8

37.2

67.4

51.9

45.5

35.9

Current Liabilities

(83.7)

(36.2)

(49.1)

(56.2)

(60.8)

(62.2)

Borrowings

(0.4)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other current liabilities

(83.3)

(36.2)

(49.1)

(56.2)

(60.8)

(62.2)

Non-current liabilities

(334.7)

(355.5)

(380.9)

(454.4)

(454.6)

(454.9)

Borrowings

(285.2)

(287.9)

(310.7)

(386.9)

(387.6)

(388.4)

Other non-current liabilities

(49.5)

(67.6)

(70.3)

(67.4)

(67.0)

(66.5)

Net Assets

429.5

483.7

420.6

497.5

502.8

513.3

Derivative interest rate swaps & deferred tax liability

1.0

2.6

5.0

2.5

2.5

2.5

Goodwill

(1.1)

(0.6)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

EPRA net tangible assets

429.4

485.7

425.6

499.9

505.3

515.8

IFRS NAV per share (p)

115.2

112.1

97.5

96.5

97.5

99.5

Fully diluted EPRA NTA per share (p)

115.2

112.6

98.6

96.9

98.0

100.0

CASH FLOW

Cash (used in)/generated from operations

38.8

26.0

48.0

56.5

56.0

54.3

Net finance expense

(11.9)

(12.2)

(12.5)

(13.2)

(15.4)

(15.4)

Tax paid

(1.5)

(0.8)

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net cash flow from operations

25.4

13.0

35.7

43.4

40.7

38.9

Net investment in investment properties

100.6

(25.6)

(0.3)

(188.5)

(12.0)

(12.0)

Acquisition of subsidiaries, net of cash acquired

(32.6)

(43.9)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other investing activity

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net cash flow from investing activities

68.2

(69.4)

(0.2)

(188.5)

(12.0)

(12.0)

Equity dividends paid

(29.4)

(32.5)

(26.7)

(28.1)

(34.3)

(35.7)

Debt drawn/(repaid) - inc bonds and ZDP

(50.5)

3.5

22.2

75.7

0.0

0.0

Net equity issuance

(1.2)

60.5

0.0

83.1

0.0

0.0

Other financing activity

47.7

(42.7)

(0.8)

(1.0)

(0.8)

(0.8)

Net cash flow from financing activity

(33.4)

(11.2)

(5.3)

129.7

(35.1)

(36.5)

Net Cash Flow

60.2

(67.6)

30.1

(15.5)

(6.4)

(9.6)

Opening cash

44.6

104.8

37.2

67.4

51.9

45.5

Closing cash

104.8

37.2

67.4

51.9

45.5

35.9

Balance sheet debt

(374.6)

(337.1)

(360.1)

(436.5)

(437.4)

(438.3)

Unamortised debt costs

(5.8)

(6.9)

(6.0)

(5.4)

(4.5)

(3.6)

Closing net debt

(275.5)

(306.8)

(298.8)

(390.0)

(396.4)

(406.0)

LTV

38.3%

38.9%

40.8%

42.8%

42.8%

42.8%

Source: Regional REIT historical data, Edison Investment Research forecasts

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Regional REIT and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Regional REIT. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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United States of America

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Regional REIT and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Regional REIT. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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