Momentum accelerates in Q3

Tyman 16 October 2020 Update
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Tyman

Momentum accelerates in Q3

Q3 trading update

Construction & materials

16 October 2020

Price

281.0p

Market cap

£553m

US$1.29/£

Net debt (£m) at end June 2020
(ex IFRS 16 leases £61m)

161

Shares in issue

196.8m

Free float

91%

Code

TYMN

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

2.6

13.8

(1.0)

Rel (local)

1.7

8.8

(4.7)

52-week high/low

384.0p

288.0p

Business description

Tyman’s product portfolio substantially addresses the residential RMI and building markets with increasing commercial sector exposure following acquisitions. It manufactures and sources window and door hardware and seals, reporting in three divisions: AmesburyTruth (North America; 63% of reported FY19 revenue), ERA (UK; 17%) and SchlegelGiesse (RoW; 20%).

Next events

FY20 ends

December 2020

Analyst

Toby Thorrington

+44 (0)20 3077 5721

Tyman is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

After COVID-19 affected Q2/H1 trading, recovering market conditions in Q3 led to Tyman achieving +3% like-for-like revenue growth in the quarter (and flat in reported terms). In addition, net debt continues to track down. With improved momentum going into Q4, we have reintroduced earnings estimates, which show a c 13% y-o-y reduction in FY20 EPS followed by a 9% rebound in FY21. We have factored in dividends resuming next year, although management is to consider a modest FY20 final payout depending on prospects at the turn of the year.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/18

591.5

72.7

27.5

12.0

10.2

4.3

12/19

613.7

71.0

27.4

3.9

10.3

1.4

12/20e

561.3

62.5

23.9

0.0

11.7

N/A

12/21e

587.4

68.1

26.1

10.0

10.8

3.6

Note: *PBT and EPS (fully diluted) are normalised, as defined by Tyman, excluding intangible amortisation and exceptional items. FY19 DPS is the interim dividend only as no final dividend payment was paid.

Strong end to Q3 results in y-o-y revenue growth

Q3 trading has been ‘significantly’ better than previous management expectations, with a 3% uplift in l-f-l revenues over this period. This comprised two flat months at group level and ended with good progress across all three geographic reporting divisions in September, resulting in a +9% l-f-l group revenue increase in that month. By region, the Q3 (ytd) revenue l-f-ls are now: North America +1% (-8%), UK/Ireland +3% (-17%) and International +9% (-12%). Improved operational performance and incremental new business wins in the US are both positive indicators and, with a pick-up in single-family occupancy housing starts, AmesburyTruth participated in an apparent acceleration in demand as Q3 progressed. ERA has seen stronger demand through e-commerce channels and SchlegelGiesse operated throughout its normal shutdown period during August.

Net debt trending down

Net debt (pre-IFRS 16) was £161m at the interim stage; an updated figure was not provided but the multiple to EBITDA has improved from 1.8x at the end of June to 1.4x at the end of Q3 (on a trailing 12month basis). Underlying profit improvement, further working capital inflows and deferred capex are all consistent with a sharp business acceleration during Q3. Moreover, management anticipates a further reduction in this multiple by year end. Our updated model projects end-FY20 net debt of £119m (or c 1.3x EBITDA for the year).

Valuation: Rebuilding after share price rally

Management comments now infer reported FY20 revenue of c £560m (versus c £416m for the first nine months) and, on our reinstated estimates, Tyman is trading on FY21e P/E and EV/EBITDA (adjusted for pensions cash) multiples of 10.8x and 6.8x, respectively. The share price has responded well to the latest newsflow and has substantially regained levels seen at the beginning of the year.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

£'m

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020e

2021e

2022e

December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

 

350.9

353.4

457.6

522.7

591.5

613.7

561.3

587.4

602.0

Cost of Sales

 

 

(236.1)

(234.0)

(290.4)

(331.8)

(383.3)

(408.1)

(375.3)

(378.9)

(387.0)

Gross Profit

 

 

114.8

119.4

167.3

190.9

208.3

205.6

186.0

208.5

215.0

EBITDA (pre-IFRS16)

 

 

54.6

60.9

82.5

91.7

98.5

100.8

91.2

96.3

102.0

Operating Profit (Edison)

 

 

46.9

52.9

70.9

78.8

84.7

86.2

76.3

81.2

86.6

Net Interest

 

 

(4.5)

(6.0)

(6.9)

(8.0)

(10.0)

(11.9)

(9.7)

(9.0)

(8.5)

Other Finance

 

 

(2.2)

(0.6)

(0.4)

(0.8)

(1.3)

(3.5)

(2.7)

(3.0)

(3.0)

Share Based Payments

 

 

(0.9)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(2.0)

(1.1)

(0.8)

(0.8)

(0.8)

(0.8)

Intangible Amortisation

 

 

(17.8)

(19.6)

(21.7)

(22.9)

(25.8)

(23.5)

(23.5)

(23.5)

(23.5)

Exceptionals

 

 

(9.3)

(9.4)

(10.9)

(10.0)

(7.3)

(21.4)

(3.0)

(3.0)

0.0

Other

 

 

(0.3)

(0.4)

(0.5)

(0.6)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

Profit Before Tax (Edison norm)

 

39.3

45.4

62.5

68.0

72.3

70.0

63.1

68.4

74.3

Profit Before Tax (Company norm)

 

41.6

45.4

62.1

68.3

72.7

71.0

62.5

68.1

74.0

Profit Before Tax (statutory)

 

 

11.9

16.1

29.4

34.5

38.9

24.8

36.3

41.6

50.5

Tax

 

 

(2.6)

(8.0)

(8.6)

(3.3)

(12.5)

(7.1)

(8.7)

(10.0)

(11.5)

Profit After Tax (norm)

 

 

36.8

37.3

53.8

64.7

59.8

62.9

54.4

58.3

62.8

Profit After Tax (statutory)

 

 

9.3

8.1

20.7

31.2

26.3

17.7

27.6

31.5

39.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

 

167.8

168.2

173.0

177.2

191.4

194.9

195.0

195.0

195.0

EPS - Edison norm (p) FD

 

 

17.1

19.3

25.5

26.6

27.3

26.8

24.2

26.2

28.5

EPS - Company norm (p) FD

 

 

18.4

19.4

25.3

26.7

27.5

27.4

23.9

26.1

28.4

EPS - statutory (p)

 

 

5.6

4.8

12.0

17.6

13.8

9.1

14.2

16.2

20.0

Dividend per share (p)

 

 

8.0

8.8

10.5

11.3

12.0

3.9

0.0

10.0

12.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Margin (%)

 

 

32.7

33.8

36.5

36.5

35.2

33.5

33.1

35.5

35.7

EBITDA Margin (%)

 

 

15.6

17.2

18.0

17.5

16.7

16.4

16.2

16.4

16.9

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

13.4

15.0

15.5

15.1

14.3

14.1

13.6

13.8

14.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed Assets

 

 

410.6

398.4

564.7

509.9

612.5

618.8

623.0

602.7

579.6

Intangible Assets

 

 

355.7

340.5

480.0

427.2

516.9

475.3

479.2

455.0

430.8

Tangible Assets

 

 

42.9

42.8

71.7

68.4

77.0

125.2

125.5

129.4

130.5

Investments

 

 

12.1

15.0

12.9

14.2

18.6

18.3

18.3

18.3

18.3

Current Assets

 

 

124.0

111.0

180.6

188.1

244.8

213.9

272.7

318.6

360.1

Stocks

 

 

47.6

46.0

70.7

75.3

105.3

88.6

81.5

97.3

99.3

Debtors

 

 

37.1

35.0

69.0

70.2

87.7

76.3

71.1

73.7

75.1

Cash

 

 

39.3

30.0

40.9

42.6

51.9

49.0

120.1

147.7

185.6

Current Liabilities

 

 

(52.3)

(44.4)

(86.4)

(82.0)

(102.9)

(100.9)

(82.6)

(86.1)

(90.1)

Creditors

 

 

(52.3)

(44.4)

(86.4)

(80.9)

(101.4)

(100.6)

(82.6)

(86.1)

(90.1)

Short term borrowings

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

(1.1)

(1.5)

(0.3)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(176.2)

(156.7)

(285.3)

(251.4)

(320.5)

(315.5)

(345.5)

(344.5)

(343.5)

Long term borrowings

 

 

(128.0)

(111.6)

(216.5)

(204.3)

(259.2)

(211.5)

(238.9)

(238.9)

(238.9)

Other long term liabilities

 

 

(48.2)

(45.1)

(68.8)

(47.0)

(61.3)

(104.0)

(106.6)

(105.6)

(104.6)

Net Assets

 

 

306.1

308.3

373.6

364.5

433.8

416.3

467.5

490.7

506.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CASH FLOW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

40.1

49.4

79.9

67.0

85.0

111.3

94.9

81.4

105.5

Net Interest

 

 

(4.6)

(6.2)

(7.0)

(7.6)

(9.1)

(15.0)

(12.7)

(12.0)

(11.5)

Tax

 

 

(6.3)

(8.9)

(12.7)

(15.1)

(12.3)

(14.2)

(8.2)

(9.5)

(11.0)

Capex

 

 

(10.2)

(10.9)

(15.3)

(12.6)

(12.0)

(10.7)

(10.8)

(18.3)

(15.8)

Acquisitions/disposals

 

 

(6.5)

6.8

(96.1)

(6.3)

(106.4)

(0.9)

(1.5)

0.0

0.0

Financing

 

 

(4.3)

(2.6)

16.7

(0.8)

47.2

(2.0)

(2.0)

(2.0)

(2.0)

Dividends

 

 

(10.9)

(14.6)

(15.6)

(19.5)

(22.4)

(23.6)

0.0

(6.4)

(21.6)

Net Cash Flow

 

 

(2.8)

13.0

(50.0)

5.1

(30.1)

44.9

59.7

33.2

43.5

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

78.7

88.7

81.6

175.6

162.9

208.8

162.8

118.8

91.2

Finance leases initiated

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(2.0)

(0.3)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

 

 

(7.2)

(5.9)

(44.0)

7.6

(13.9)

1.4

(15.7)

(5.6)

(5.6)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

88.7

81.6

175.6

162.9

208.8

162.8

118.8

91.2

53.3

Lease finance (under IFRS16)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

60.0

60.8

60.8

60.8

Source: Company, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Tyman and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Tyman. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney+61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Tyman and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Tyman. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney+61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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