Esker 1

Maintaining outlook for FY22

Esker 18 July 2022 Update
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Esker

Maintaining outlook for FY22

Q2 revenue update

Software and comp services

18 July 2022

Price

€136.60

Market cap

€779m

$1.02/€

Net cash (€m) at end H122

26.5

Shares in issue

5.8m

Free float

78%

Code

ALESK

Primary exchange

Euronext Growth Paris

Secondary exchange

OTCQX

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

17.1

(18.2)

(48.7)

Rel (local)

17.1

(10.5)

(44.3)

52-week high/low

€361.50

€112.10

Business description

Esker provides end-to-end SaaS-based document automation solutions supporting order-to-cash and procure-to-pay processes. In FY21, the business generated 55% of revenues from Europe, 39% from the United States and the remainder from Asia and Australia.

Next events

H122 results

14 September 2022

Analyst

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

Esker is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Esker reported Q222 revenue growth of 19% y-o-y (12% in constant currency), driven by 23% growth in SaaS revenues. Bookings intake was strong, with the annual recurring value (ARR) of bookings up 25% y-o-y. Despite the worsening economic environment, management maintained its outlook for FY22. A diverse customer base, the high level of recurring revenue, inflation-linked contracts and a strong balance sheet should mitigate the impact of rising inflation and interest rates.

Year end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/20

112.3

14.5

1.99

0.50

68.7

0.4

12/21

133.6

18.2

2.39

0.60

57.2

0.4

12/22e

158.0

21.4

2.76

0.65

49.4

0.5

12/23e

183.0

26.7

3.39

0.70

40.3

0.5

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

H122 constant currency revenue growth 13%

Esker reported revenue of €39.8m for Q222, up 19% y-o-y or 12% at constant currency (cc) rates. This resulted in H122 revenue of €76.3m, up 19% y-o-y or 13% cc. As ever, SaaS revenue (79% of total revenue) was the driver of growth, up 16% cc for Q222 and 17% cc for H122. The Market Dojo acquisition completed at the start of June but was not a material contributor to SaaS revenue in the period. After a brief slowdown in Q122 as COVID-19 rates surged, implementation services returned to a more normal pace, generating revenue growth of 17% y-o-y (12% cc) in Q222. Esker closed H122 with net cash of €26.5m.

Strong bookings momentum maintained

Q222 growth in the ARR of bookings of 25% y-o-y follows growth of 11% in Q122 and the lifetime value of new bookings was 41% higher y-o-y at €14.6m. Management has maintained its expectation of organic constant currency growth of 15–16% in FY22 and an operating margin of 12–15%. We have increased our FY22 revenue forecast by 0.8% and normalised diluted EPS by 0.4%, mainly due to currency effects as the euro has weakened versus the dollar. Our FY23 forecasts are substantially unchanged.

Valuation: Better value

The share price has declined 62% year to date and is down 30% since the company reported FY21 results in March. Based on P/E ratios for FY22 and FY23, the stock continues to trade at a premium to French software peers and at a discount to US SaaS peers, we believe due to its high level of recurring revenue, history of and potential for double-digit profitable growth and strong balance sheet. We see potential for upside if the company achieves profitability at the upper end of its target range.

Q2 revenue update

Esker reported revenue growth of 19% y-o-y for Q222, or 12% at constant exchange rates (cc). This resulted in H122 reported revenue growth of 19% y-o-y or 13% cc. We note that the $/€ exchange rate was 1.123 in Q122 (1.138 in Q121) and 1.066 in Q222 (1.205 in Q221), and c 40% of revenue is generated in the US.

By revenue type:

SaaS: Q222 grew 23% y-o-y (16% cc) to €31.5m, compared to 23% y-o-y (19% cc) in Q122.

Implementation services: Q222 grew 17% y-o-y (12% cc) to €6.4m, compared to 8% y-o-y (4% cc) in Q122, and was 9% higher q-o-q.

Legacy products: Q222 declined 17% y-o-y (-28% cc) to €1.9m versus -14% y-o-y (-23% cc) in Q122.

In Q222, the company reported bookings with a lifetime contract value of €14.6m (+41% y-o-y cc). The ARR of these contracts was €4.0m (+25% y-o-y cc), equating to an average contract length of 3.7 years. As a reminder, the ARR only includes the subscription fee element of the contract and does not include the volume-related element. The company noted that bookings were particularly strong in France, the United States and Australia.

Esker closed H122 with gross cash of €43.1m and net cash of €26.5m. In Q2, it completed the acquisition of Market Dojo (we have assumed cash paid of €9m) and paid the FY21 dividend. The company took out a new €12m loan at a low fixed interest rate to have funds in case any acquisition targets present themselves.

Market Dojo acquisition closed

At the start of June, Esker completed the Market Dojo acquisition. The business made a minor revenue contribution of c €50k in Q222 and management expects a contribution of c €1m for H222. Since acquisition, the company has started joint marketing and will be aiming to introduce Market Dojo to the US market.

Continued progress with partner channel

Management noted that c 20% of bookings came via partners during Q222, up from c 10% a year ago.

Esker recently strengthened its strategic partnership with Grant Thornton France (GTF). GTF is now an integrator of Esker software on a global basis and, in particular, will work with Esker to help companies prepare for the changes to France’s e-invoicing regulations due in 2024. From July 2024, e-invoicing will be mandatory for all business-to-business exchanges.

Outlook and changes to forecasts

Esker reiterated its expectations for 15–16% organic constant currency revenue growth for FY22, with a 12–15% operating margin. Despite the current economic environment, the company has not yet seen any signs of slowing demand, either in terms of bookings or volumes processed. It has historically seen sales cycles lengthen when there have been unexpected events, such as COVID lockdowns and the war in Ukraine, but currently sales cycles are at normal levels. The customer base is fairly diversified by vertical and no customer makes up more than 1.4% of revenue. Contracts tend to factor in inflation-linked price increases after the initial term, although management noted that the index used in France was currently showing artificially low rates and it intends to change this in new contracts. The company noted that it was taking a more cautious approach to hiring but does not see any reason to assume slowing growth in FY23.

We have slightly increased our revenue forecast for FY22, reflecting the weakening euro versus the dollar, and this results in a small increase in our EPS forecast. Our forecasts for FY23 are substantially unchanged – for the cost base, a slightly slower rate of hiring offsets the weaker euro versus the dollar.

At its AGM in June, the company announced a €0.60 per share dividend for FY21, ahead of our €0.55 forecast, plus a 10% loyalty bonus for shareholders who have held their shares for two or more years. We have raised our dividend forecasts for FY22 and FY23.

Exhibit 1: Changes to estimates

€m

FY22e old

FY22e new

change

y-o-y

FY23e old

FY23e new

change

y-o-y

Revenues

156.8

158.0

0.8%

18.3%

182.9

183.0

0.0%

15.8%

EBITDA

29.6

29.7

0.3%

15.6%

35.7

35.7

(0.0%)

20.2%

EBITDA margin

18.9%

18.8%

(0.1%)

(0.4%)

19.5%

19.5%

(0.0%)

0.7%

Normalised EBIT

20.0

20.1

0.4%

18.1%

25.3

25.3

(0.0%)

25.9%

Normalised EBIT margin

12.8%

12.7%

(0.0%)

(0.0%)

13.8%

13.8%

(0.0%)

1.1%

Reported EBIT

19.6

19.7

0.4%

18.5%

24.9

24.9

(0.0%)

26.5%

Reported EBIT margin

12.5%

12.4%

(0.0%)

0.0%

13.6%

13.6%

(0.0%)

1.1%

Normalised PBT

21.3

21.4

0.4%

17.4%

26.7

26.7

(0.0%)

24.8%

Normalised net income

16.6

16.7

0.4%

16.6%

20.8

20.8

(0.0%)

24.8%

Reported net income

16.3

16.3

0.4%

14.4%

20.5

20.5

(0.0%)

25.3%

Normalised dil. EPS (€)

2.75

2.76

0.4%

15.7%

3.39

3.39

(0.0%)

22.8%

Reported basic EPS (€)

2.79

2.80

0.4%

14.7%

3.45

3.45

(0.0%)

23.2%

Reported diluted EPS (€)

2.70

2.71

0.4%

13.5%

3.34

3.34

(0.0%)

23.3%

Net cash

34.5

34.1

(1.1%)

(11.6%)

44.6

44.0

(1.3%)

29.0%

DPS (€)

0.60

0.65

8.3%

8.3%

0.65

0.70

7.7%

7.7%

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

€'000s

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022e

2023e

Year end 31 December

French GAAP

French GAAP

French GAAP

French GAAP

French GAAP

French GAAP

French GAAP

French GAAP

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

65,990

76,064

86,871

104,188

112,274

133,580

158,008

183,002

EBITDA

 

 

14,871

16,399

18,279

20,054

21,927

25,653

29,652

35,655

Operating Profit (before amort and except)

 

 

9,934

10,547

11,955

12,843

14,037

17,006

20,077

25,280

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(200)

(300)

(344)

(425)

(425)

(425)

(425)

(425)

Exceptionals and other income

(474)

(456)

(88)

(62)

0

0

0

0

Other income

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

9,260

9,791

11,523

12,356

13,612

16,581

19,652

24,855

Net Interest

(108)

(110)

(57)

268

(67)

202

200

200

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

9,949

10,669

12,215

13,634

14,462

18,210

21,377

26,680

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

9,275

9,913

11,783

13,147

14,528

18,188

20,952

26,255

Tax

(2,950)

(3,148)

(2,940)

(3,402)

(2,966)

(3,907)

(4,609)

(5,776)

Profit After Tax (norm)

6,785

7,281

9,168

10,106

11,509

14,298

16,674

20,810

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

6,325

6,765

8,843

9,745

11,562

14,281

16,342

20,479

Ave. Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

5.3

5.3

5.4

5.4

5.7

5.8

5.8

5.9

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

128

138

170

186

203

245

286

351

EPS - normalised fully diluted (c)

 

 

122

132

165

179

199

239

276

339

EPS - (GAAP) (c)

 

 

120

128

164

180

204

244

280

345

Dividend per share (c)

30

32

41

33

50

60

65

70

Gross margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

EBITDA Margin (%)

22.5

21.6

21.0

19.2

19.5

19.2

18.8

19.5

Operating margin (before GW and except) (%)

15.1

13.9

13.8

12.3

12.5

12.7

12.7

13.8

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

28,324

37,912

39,635

47,201

48,987

57,229

70,689

74,089

Intangible Assets

22,381

26,673

28,096

29,323

30,787

33,644

45,804

47,604

Tangible Assets

5,158

7,115

7,050

10,434

10,036

9,896

10,096

10,496

Other

785

4,124

4,489

7,444

8,164

13,689

14,789

15,989

Current Assets

 

 

42,024

42,823

49,016

52,022

72,918

71,534

74,495

91,379

Stocks

101

176

147

185

257

341

341

341

Debtors

19,523

21,253

25,551

30,015

31,440

35,548

44,156

51,140

Cash

21,338

20,632

22,794

21,357

40,421

34,978

29,332

39,230

Other

1,062

762

524

465

800

667

667

667

Current Liabilities

 

 

(28,299)

(26,206)

(30,072)

(34,300)

(50,150)

(45,872)

(48,435)

(52,254)

Creditors

(28,299)

(26,206)

(30,072)

(34,300)

(38,650)

(44,703)

(48,435)

(52,254)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

0

(11,500)

(1,169)

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(7,657)

(14,909)

(10,810)

(8,276)

(6,342)

(2,497)

(2,497)

(2,497)

Long term borrowings

(7,657)

(13,716)

(9,318)

(6,516)

(3,644)

0

0

0

Other long-term liabilities

0

(1,193)

(1,492)

(1,760)

(2,698)

(2,497)

(2,497)

(2,497)

Net Assets

 

 

34,392

39,620

47,769

56,647

65,413

80,394

94,252

110,718

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

15,944

17,311

18,366

20,290

24,389

28,844

24,776

32,489

Net Interest

(127)

(75)

63

352

(30)

253

200

200

Tax

(1,456)

(2,053)

(2,795)

(3,329)

(884)

(3,420)

(4,609)

(5,776)

Capex

(7,021)

(9,304)

(7,789)

(10,995)

(10,167)

(11,140)

(12,200)

(13,000)

Acquisitions/disposals

(935)

(7,551)

(225)

(486)

(492)

(4,502)

(9,000)

0

Financing

467

(345)

785

1,449

48

2,769

0

0

Dividends

(1,550)

(1,633)

(1,756)

(2,237)

(1,896)

(2,897)

(3,644)

(4,014)

Net Cash Flow

5,322

(3,650)

6,649

5,044

10,968

9,907

(4,477)

9,899

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(8,978)

(13,681)

(10,016)

(16,576)

(21,018)

(30,285)

(38,609)

(34,132)

HP finance leases initiated

(645)

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

26

(15)

(90)

(602)

(1,701)

(1,583)

(0)

(0)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(13,681)

(10,016)

(16,576)

(21,018)

(30,285)

(38,609)

(34,132)

(44,030)

Source: Esker, Edison Investment Research


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This report has been commissioned by Esker and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Esker. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

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Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Esker and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Esker. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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United Kingdom

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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