Maintained expectations, awaiting strategy update

Walker Greenbank 9 August 2019 Update
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Walker Greenbank

Maintained expectations, awaiting strategy update

End H120 update

Care & household goods

9 August 2019

Price

83.5p

Market cap

£59m

Net cash (£m) at end-January 2019

0.4

Shares in issue

70.9m

Free float

92%

Code

WGB

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

1.2

17.8

8.4

Rel (local)

4.6

18.1

16.1

52-week high/low

92.0p

56.2p

Business description

Walker Greenbank is a luxury interior furnishings group combining specialist design skills with high-quality upstream UK manufacturing facilities. Leading brands include Harlequin, Sanderson, Morris & Co, Scion, Anthology, Zoffany and Clarke & Clarke. FY18 revenue was split UK 58%, international 39% and licence income 3%.

Next events

FY19 final DPS of 2.55p to be paid

9 August

H120 results

October tbc

Analyst

Toby Thorrington

+44 (0)20 3077 5721

Walker Greenbank is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Positive steps have been taken in the UK and US that will benefit Walker Greenbank in future periods and although the domestic market remains challenging, management’s full year expectations are unchanged. The upcoming strategic update may bring the prospects for re-building earnings and associated valuation metrics into sharper focus for investors.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

01/18**

112.2

12.7

14.7

4.4

5.7

5.3

01/19

113.3

9.5

10.8

3.2

7.7

3.8

01/20e

109.3

7.3

8.4

2.5

9.9

3.0

01/21e

111.8

7.8

9.0

2.7

9.3

3.2

Note: *PBT and EPS (fully diluted) are normalised, excluding exceptional items and LTIP charges. **Restated for IFRS 15.

UK market soft, international improving

H120 revenue looks to have been at a broadly similar level to the prior year on a reported basis. Core UK sales are still tracking below prior year levels in both Brands (products -3.1%) and Manufacturing (Edison estimates UK third-party sales down c 10%). In the former case, this represents the net effect of lower heritage brand sales partly offset by growth at Clarke & Clarke and in ancillary lines and the overall rate of decline is lower than seen in FY19 as a whole. There has been progress in international markets for manufactured products (sales +17.2%) though LFL Brands export turnover was modestly down. US channel disruption makes the underlying trend here difficult to interpret but migrating distribution arrangements to Kravet Inc (announced 1 July) should result in improved momentum in that market. Lastly, non-apparel licence income is growing with existing licensees, though of course the significant apparel licence income seen in FY19 will not recur this year.

Cost reduction, cash control and strategy update

Management maintained existing full year expectations though no specific comments were made on H120 profitability. Consolidating Clarke & Clarke infrastructure with Style Library/heritage Brands is substantially complete and accounts for the majority of an anticipated £2m annualised cost savings, £1m of which is set to accrue in the current year underpinning our existing estimates, which are unchanged. End July net cash is likely to be similar to, and possibly slightly better than, the year end £0.4m. This provides a flexible backdrop for the expected strategic update from new management accompanying the interim results announcement in October.

Valuation: Single-digit rating on trough earnings

After a dip following the February trading update, Walker Greenbank’s share price has regained levels seen earlier in the year. However, some of the recent gains have been given up in the last week and the company’s rating remains in single digits for this year (ie P/E 9.7x and EV/EBITDA, adjusted for pensions cash of 6.1x) on what we believe might be trough earnings.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

£m

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2018R

2019

2020e

2021e

2022e

Year end January

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

 

75.7

78.4

83.4

87.8

92.4

108.8

112.2

113.3

109.3

111.8

114.5

Cost of Sales

 

 

(30.2)

(30.3)

(32.7)

(35.9)

(36.2)

(43.3)

(44.0)

(45.3)

(44.8)

(45.9)

(46.9)

Gross Profit

 

 

45.5

48.1

50.7

52.0

56.2

65.5

68.2

68.0

64.5

66.0

67.5

EBITDA

 

 

8.6

9.7

10.7

11.8

13.4

15.9

16.1

13.3

11.3

11.8

12.0

Operating Profit (before GW, except. & LTIP)

6.6

7.5

8.3

9.1

10.6

12.8

13.0

9.8

7.6

8.0

8.1

Operating Profit (before GW and except.) - reported

5.8

6.5

7.3

8.2

9.8

12.4

12.6

10.4

7.6

7.4

7.5

Net Interest

 

 

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.2)

Intangible Amort – acquired

 

 

0

0

0

0

(0.3)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

Pension net finance charge

(0.7)

(0.9)

(0.8)

(0.7)

(0.5)

(0.6)

(0.6)

(0.6)

(0.7)

(0.7)

(0.7)

Exceptionals

 

 

0

0

0

0

(1.8)

2.3

2.3

(2.2)

(0.5)

0.0

0.0

Other

 

 

0

0

0

0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

6.4

7.3

8.1

8.9

10.4

12.5

12.7

9.5

7.3

7.8

7.9

Profit Before Tax (statutory)

 

 

4.9

5.5

6.3

7.3

7.0

12.8

13.0

6.3

5.1

5.5

5.6

Tax

 

 

(1.0)

(0.5)

(1.2)

(1.5)

(1.6)

(1.0)

(1.1)

(1.2)

(1.4)

(1.4)

(1.4)

Profit After Tax (norm)

 

 

5.4

6.6

6.9

7.5

8.6

11.5

10.4

7.7

6.0

6.4

6.5

Profit After Tax (statutory) 

 

4.0

5.0

5.1

5.9

5.4

11.8

11.9

5.1

3.7

4.1

4.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average number of shares outstanding (m) 

57.5

58.5

59.3

60.0

62.7

70.4

70.4

71.0

71.0

71.0

71.0

EPS - normalised (p) FD

 

 

9.4

10.7

11.2

11.6

12.9

14.43

14.68

10.8

8.4

9.0

9.2

EPS - statutory (p)

 

 

6.9

8.6

8.6

9.8

8.6

16.70

16.95

7.2

5.3

5.8

5.9

Dividend per share (p)

 

 

1.5

1.9

2.3

2.9

3.6

4.4

4.4

3.2

2.5

2.7

2.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Margin (%)

 

 

60.1

61.3

60.8

59.2

60.8

60.2

60.8

60.0

59.0

59.0

59.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

 

 

11.4

12.4

12.8

13.4

14.6

14.6

14.3

11.7

10.3

10.5

10.5

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

7.7

8.3

8.8

9.3

10.7

11.4

11.2

9.2

7.0

6.6

6.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed Assets

 

 

18.5

21.1

21.5

18.9

47.5

47.7

47.7

46.0

44.4

42.6

40.7

Intangible Assets

 

 

6.7

7.3

7.2

7.1

31.6

31.8

31.8

30.8

29.6

28.5

27.3

Tangible Assets

 

 

9.8

11.7

12.7

11.7

15.8

16.0

16.0

15.2

14.7

14.1

13.5

Investments

 

 

2.0

2.2

1.6

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Assets

 

 

32.6

35.3

37.1

40.3

51.3

51.9

52.1

49.3

50.9

53.7

56.6

Stocks

 

 

16.8

18.4

22.0

18.1

30.3

29.4

29.5

28.0

27.7

28.4

29.0

Debtors

 

 

12.8

13.9

14.1

19.3

19.5

21.2

21.3

18.9

19.3

19.6

19.9

Cash

 

 

2.9

2.8

1.0

2.9

1.5

1.3

1.3

2.4

3.9

5.8

7.6

Other

 

 

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current Liabilities

 

 

(17.3)

(19.4)

(20.7)

(19.4)

(34.8)

(28.9)

(28.9)

(23.8)

(24.4)

(25.3)

(26.3)

Creditors

 

 

(16.9)

(19.0)

(20.3)

(19.0)

(28.0)

(22.4)

(22.4)

(21.8)

(22.4)

(23.3)

(24.3)

Short term borrowings

 

 

(0.4)

(0.4)

(0.4)

(0.4)

(6.8)

(6.6)

(6.6)

(2.0)

(2.0)

(2.0)

(2.0)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(9.6)

(10.2)

(10.9)

(4.5)

(12.7)

(9.1)

(9.1)

(10.6)

(8.5)

(6.3)

(4.0)

Long term borrowings

 

 

(1.4)

(0.9)

(0.6)

(0.2)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other long term liabilities 

(8.2)

(9.2)

(10.4)

(4.3)

(12.7)

(9.1)

(9.1)

(10.6)

(8.5)

(6.3)

(4.0)

Net Assets

 

 

24.2

26.9

26.9

35.3

51.3

61.6

61.8

60.9

62.4

64.7

67.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CASH FLOW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

6.0

6.2

3.5

7.1

12.4

7.0

7.0

12.6

8.3

8.3

8.4

Net Interest

 

 

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.1)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.2)

Tax

 

 

(0.0)

(0.0)

(0.0)

(0.6)

(2.3)

(2.2)

(2.2)

(0.8)

(1.4)

(1.4)

(1.4)

Capex

 

 

(3.1)

(4.7)

(3.2)

(2.5)

(6.7)

(3.5)

(3.5)

(2.8)

(3.0)

(3.0)

(3.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(27.1)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Financing

 

 

(0.1)

(0.0)

(0.4)

(0.1)

18.3

1.8

1.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Dividends

 

 

(0.7)

(0.9)

(1.1)

(1.4)

(1.8)

(2.7)

(2.7)

(3.1)

(2.2)

(1.8)

(1.9)

Net Cash Flow

 

 

1.8

0.3

(1.5)

2.3

(7.4)

0.1

0.1

5.7

1.5

1.9

1.8

Opening net debt/(cash)

0.7

(1.2)

(1.5)

(0.0)

(2.3)

5.3

5.3

5.3

(0.4)

(1.9)

(3.8)

HP finance leases initiated

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.0)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(0.2)

(0.1)

(0.1)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(1.2)

(1.5)

(0.0)

(2.3)

5.3

5.3

5.3

(0.4)

(1.9)

(3.8)

(5.7)

Source: Walker Greenbank, Edison Investment Research. Note: 2018 results restated for IFRS 15 ‘Revenue from Contracts with Customers’; the primary P&L effects were to reclassify some marketing materials/services as net other income and carriage recoveries to revenue and, as they were previously netted out of distribution costs previously, increase this cost line.


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This report has been commissioned by Walker Greenbank and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Walker Greenbank. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Walker Greenbank and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Walker Greenbank. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

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Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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