BCI Minerals — Iron ore price continues to power ahead

BCI Minerals — Iron ore price continues to power ahead

On 14 June, BCI announced that its EBITDA guidance from Iron Valley for FY19 is now right at the top of the range of prior expectations. During the first nine months of the year, BCI’s EBITDA from Iron Valley was A$6.0m from 5.5Mt of material shipped (ie A$1.09 per tonne). In the light of the continued strength of the iron ore price in the aftermath of the Brazilian tailings dams’ disasters, it has now revised its guidance for the full year from A$6–12m to A$11–12m (or c A$1.57 per tonne, given our FY19 production estimates), implying EBITDA of A$5–6m (or c A$2.66–3.19/t) in Q419 alone. As a result, we have upgraded our EBITDA forecasts for BCI’s Iron Valley stream of income for FY19 and FY20. Consistent with the strong iron ore price environment, between March and May, BCI’s cash position declined by only A$0.6m, despite continued investment into Mardie.

Lord Ashbourne

Written by

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

BCI Minerals

Iron ore price continues to power ahead

Earnings update

Metals & mining

5 July 2019

Price

A$0.19

Market cap

A$76m

A$1.4560/US$

Net cash (A$m) at 31 May 2019

34.8

Shares in issue

397.6m

Free float

63%

Code

BCI

Primary exchange

ASX

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

8.1

17.6

37.9

Rel (local)

2.0

9.3

27.2

52-week high/low

A$0.21

A$0.13

Business description

BCI Minerals has two major assets in Western Australia, including a 100% interest in the Mardie salt and potash project and a royalty-type interest in the Iron Valley iron ore mine operated by Mineral Resources. It also has exploration tenements in iron ore and other minerals.

Next events

Q419 activity report

July 2019

FY19 results

August 2019

Mardie DFS

Q4 CY19

Mardie investment decision

Q1 CY20

Analyst

Charles Gibson

+44 (0)20 3077 5724

BCI Minerals is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

On 14 June, BCI announced that its EBITDA guidance from Iron Valley for FY19 is now right at the top of the range of prior expectations. During the first nine months of the year, BCI’s EBITDA from Iron Valley was A$6.0m from 5.5Mt of material shipped (ie A$1.09 per tonne). In the light of the continued strength of the iron ore price in the aftermath of the Brazilian tailings dams’ disasters, it has now revised its guidance for the full year from A$6–12m to A$11–12m (or c A$1.57 per tonne, given our FY19 production estimates), implying EBITDA of A$5–6m (or c A$2.66–3.19/t) in Q419 alone. As a result, we have upgraded our EBITDA forecasts for BCI’s Iron Valley stream of income for FY19 and FY20. Consistent with the strong iron ore price environment, between March and May, BCI’s cash position declined by only A$0.6m, despite continued investment into Mardie.

Year end

Revenue (A$m)

PBT*
(A$m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

06/17

64.3

6.0

1.9

0.0

10.0

N/A

06/18

33.0

(16.9)

(4.3)

0.0

N/A

N/A

06/19e

63.8

(6.0)

(1.1)

0.0

N/A

N/A

06/20e

85.6

(13.1)

(3.3)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Full effect of higher iron ore prices in FY20 & beyond

While the effect of the increase in iron ore prices in Q419 will have had a relatively modest A$0.9m effect on earnings for the year as a whole, the effect on earnings in FY20 is much larger. Hitherto, we have assumed an average price for 58% CFR iron ore of US$49.00/t for FY20. With the current price of standard grade 58% CFR iron ore around US$105/t, however, such an outcome for FY20 now appears extremely unlikely. In recognition of this, we have formally adjusted our price forecasts for 58% CFR iron ore, so that we assume it will decline steadily from current levels to reach our FY21 price by the end of June 2020, such that the average price for FY20 will be US$71.53/t (ie a discount of only 16.2% compared with the likely average price of US$85.35/t in Q419 and a 69.4% premium compared to the H119 average price of US$42.23/t). As a result, our forecast for Iron Valley EBITDA in FY20 has increased by 36.6% to A$15.3m.

Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility (NAIF)

Further to its Iron Valley earnings update, on 1 July, BCI also announced that the NAIF had advised that the Mardie project can proceed to the next (due diligence) phase of the assessment process for potential, concessional debt funding.

Valuation: Still 2x current share price

In the wake of its announcement, we value BCI at 35.60c (cf 35.13 previously). However, this increases to as much as 47.45c in the event that iron ore prices remain at current levels until the end of the life of operations at Iron Valley. Note that a further 2.43c should be added to all of these valuations to account for the value of BCI’s Buckland iron ore assets.

Iron Valley earnings update

Not wholly surprisingly, given the recent strength in the iron ore market, on 14 June, BCI issued an earnings update for Iron Valley to the effect that its EBITDA expectations from that operation are now right at the top of the prior range for the company’s financial year to end-June 2019. During the first nine months of the year, BCI’s EBITDA from Iron Valley was A$6.0m from 5.5Mt of material shipped (equivalent to A$1.09 per tonne) and, until the announcement, BCI’s formal EBITDA guidance for the full year had been in the range A$6–12m. In light of the continued strength of the iron ore price since March, BCI has revised its EBITDA guidance for FY19 to the top of the range, at A$11–12m, which (given our FY19 production estimate of 7.33Mt for the full year) equates to c A$1.57 per tonne).

In its announcement, BCI observed that the price of 62% Fe cost freight (CFR) iron ore had averaged US$96 per dry metric tonne (dmt) in April and May compared with an average of US$74/dmt for the first nine months of the year (a 29.7% increase). In addition, the discount of the price of 58% CFR iron ore (a close proxy to the price received by Iron Valley for its product) to the 62% product had narrowed ‘materially’; the price has continued to strengthen to in excess of US$120/t at the time of writing.

Graphs of the prices of standard grade 62% and 58% CFR iron ore (and the discount of the latter to the former) are provided in Exhibits 1 and 2, below, which bear out BCI’s analysis.

Exhibit 1: 62% iron ore price (US$/t) vs 58% iron ore price, July 2014 to present

Exhibit 2: Discount of 58% iron ore price vs 62% iron ore price, July 2014 to present (%)

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 1: 62% iron ore price (US$/t) vs 58% iron ore price, July 2014 to present

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 2: Discount of 58% iron ore price vs 62% iron ore price, July 2014 to present (%)

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research

Consequences – Q419 and FY19

While our erstwhile forecasts for Q419 had largely discounted the higher iron ore prices, they had not done so completely in that they assumed an average 58% iron ore price of US$78.54/t during the quarter, whereas (on current trends) the price actually looks likely to have averaged US$85.35/t, as the shortage of iron ore supply in the wake of the Brazilian mines’ tailings dams’ disasters continues to squeeze prices higher. Over approximately the same timeframe, the Australian dollar also weakened, which has accentuated the effect of the rising iron ore prices. Adjusting for these two effects alone increases our June 2019 quarter estimate of EBITDA for Iron Valley to A$5.6m (equivalent to A$2.98 per tonne of product) and our earnings expectations for the company for the full year, as follows:

Exhibit 3: Revised Edison estimates of BCI’s FY19 income statement

Year end June (A$000s)

H118

H218

H119

H219e

FY19e
(current)

FY19e
(previous)

Revenue from continuing operations

Sale of goods

17,192

15,778

20,222

44,049

64,271

61,194

Other revenue

366

(307)

(457)

0

(457)

(457)

Total revenue from continuing operations

17,558

15,471

19,765

44,049

63,814

60,737

Forex gain/(loss)

0

0

Cost of sales (estimate)

(14,146)

(12,972)

(16,254)

(35,674)

(51,927)

(49,796)

Depreciation and amortisation (estimate)

(1,459)

(1,459)

(1,459)

(1,459)

(2,917)

(2,918)

Selling and marketing

0

0

0

0

0

Administration expenses

(3,698)

(3,340)

(2,409)

(2,409)

(4,818)

(4,818)

Exploration and evaluation expenditure

(4,310)

(8,977)

(3,374)

(6,924)

(10,298)

(10,298)

Gain on disposal of mine property and other assets

0

0

17,818

0

17,818

17,818

Profit/(loss) before finance cost and income tax

(6,054)

(11,276)

14,088

(2,416)

11,672

10,725

Finance income

0

420

0

0

Finance costs

(27)

27

0

0

Net finance income

(27)

447

0

98

98

98

Profit/(loss) before income tax

(6,081)

(10,829)

14,088

(2,318)

11,770

10,823

Income tax/(credit)

0

0

(1,510)

0

(1,510)

(1,510)

Marginal tax rate (%)

0.0

0.0

(10.7)

0.0

(12.8)

(14.0)

Profit after income tax from continuing operations

(6,081)

(10,829)

15,598

(2,318)

13,280

12,333

Weighted average number of ordinary shares (000s)

394,597.863

394,597.863

397,608.910

397,600.000

397,604.455

396,063.455

Derivatives (000s)

19,752.271

19,752.271

19,752.271

Fully diluted weighted average number of ordinary shares (000s)

394,597.863

394,597.863

397,608.910

417,352.271

417,356.726

415,815.726

EPS (cents)

(1.54)

(2.74)

3.92

(0.58)

3.34

3.11

Fully diluted EPS (cents)

(1.54)

(2.74)

3.92

(0.56)

3.18

2.97

Source: Edison Investment Research, BCI Minerals. Note: Company reported basis.

Assumption of elevated iron ore prices extended into FY20

While the effect of the increase in iron ore prices for the remainder of FY19 has a relatively modest A$0.9m effect on earnings for FY19 as a whole, the effect on earnings in FY20 is much larger. Hitherto, we have maintained our forecasts for FY20 based on the analysis set out in our Outlook/initiation note, Salt plus potash plus iron equals value, published on 7 February, which predicted an average price for 58% CFR iron ore of US$49.00/t for FY20. With the current price of standard grade 58% CFR iron ore around US$105/t, however, and with no end in sight to the disruption caused by the interruption of Brazilian supply in the market, such an outcome for FY20 is extremely unlikely. In recognition of this, we have now formally adjusted our price forecasts for 58% CFR iron ore, so that we assume the price will decline steadily from its current level to reach our FY21 price by the end of June 2020 (thus allowing us to leave our FY21 average price assumption unchanged at US$45.95/t). Under these circumstances, the average price for 58% CFR iron ore in FY20 will be US$71.53/t (ie a discount of only 16.2% compared with the likely average price of US$85.35/t in Q419 and an 69.4% premium compared to the H119 average price of US$42.23/t), with a profile over the year as follows:

Exhibit 4: Price of standard grade 58% CFR iron ore, July 2014 to July 2020e

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research

The effect of this change to our forecast price increases our forecast for Iron Valley EBITDA in FY20 by 36.6% to A$15.3m (albeit this will be reinvested into Mardie such that BCI itself will remain loss making, on an underlying basis during the year – see Exhibit 8). Self-evidently, to the extent that iron ore prices remain stronger for longer than anticipated, both our forecasts for FY20 and our valuation (see the Sensitivities section, below) will be subject to potential future upgrades.

Consequences – valuation

We have left the remainder of our assumptions unchanged other than the fact that we now expect funding and capex to occur early in FY21, rather than late in FY20. That being the case, our long-term estimates of BCI’s earnings, (maximum potential) dividends per share and valuation trajectory are then as follows:

Exhibit 5: BCI EPS and (maximum potential) DPS forecasts, FY18–83e

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: Income derived from Iron Valley and Mardie, combined; no contribution assumed from Buckland or any other assets.

Discounting at our customary discount rate of 10% per year, the (fully diluted) value of these cash flows to shareholders is 35.60 Australian cents (cf 35.13c previously) as at 1 July 2019, of which 18.79c may be attributable to BCI’s non-Mardie assets and 16.81 to Mardie. This compares with our valuations at the time of our Outlook/initiation note (see Salt plus potash plus iron equals value, published on 7 February) of 19.51c and 11.15c, respectively as follows:

Exhibit 6: BCI discounted dividend valuation, by component

June 2019

February 2019

Component

Australian cents per share

Percent of total
(%)

Australian cents per share

Percent of total
(%)

Change
(%)

Iron Valley, cash and corporate

18.79

52.8

19.51

63.6

+3.9

Mardie

16.81

47.2

11.15

36.4

+68.9

Total

35.60

100.0

30.66

100.0

+27.6

Source: Edison Investment Research

Investors should note that the increase in the value per share of Mardie derives not only from its intervening PFS optimisation study (announced on 17 May 2019), but also from the reinvestment of Iron Valley cash flows into the project.

To this should then be added a further 2.43c for BCI’s Buckland iron ore assets to take the total to 41.54c.

Sensitivities

All other things being equal, our earnings forecasts and Iron Valley valuation will be affected by the extent to which iron ore prices remain high beyond FY20, which is quantified in Exhibit 7 for a number of future iron ore pricing scenarios. However, the major benefit to BCI of a higher, future iron ore pricing environment will be the increased funding contribution made by Iron Valley earnings retained within BCI towards Mardie – thereby either reducing the amount of financial risk associated with the project (shown here in the form of a decreased net debt funding requirement) or, alternatively, reducing the amount of future equity dilution required to achieve a maximum leverage ratio of 50% and thereby increasing the value of subsequent dividends to equity shareholders (not shown here):

Exhibit 7: BCI Minerals valuation sensitivity to future Iron Valley iron ore pricing scenarios

Scenario

Valuation (Australian cents per share)

Incremental change (cps)

Incremental change (%)

Maximum net debt funding requirement (A$m)

Maximum leverage* (%)

Base case

35.60

272.4

50.0

Iron ore price remains at FY20 level until end of life of mine

38.95

+3.35

+9.4

239.0

43.7

Iron ore price remains at Q419 level until end of life of mine

43.99

+5.04

+12.9

179.3

32.6

Iron ore price remains at US$105/t until end of life of mine

47.45

+3.46

+7.9

138.2

25.1

Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Defined as (net debt)/(net debt+equity).

NAIF (Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility)

Further to its Iron Valley earnings update (and also its Mardie PFS optimisation announcement in mid-May which confirmed the viability of a dedicated port at Mardie), on 1 July, BCI announced that the NAIF had completed its assessment of the Mardie project and advised that it has proceeded to the due diligence phase of the assessment process.

NAIF is a A$5bn facility set up by the federal Australian government to provide loans (which may be of a concessional nature – eg lower coupon, longer tenor, subordinated etc) to projects that, among other things, develop and improve the infrastructure of northern Australia. This initial term of the fund is for the five years until end-June 2021 and, anecdotally, it is therefore thought to be keen to deploy its funds under management expeditiously. Mardie is located entirely within the definition of Northern Australia under the NAIF Act 2016. In addition, at least A$227m of its total capex of A$498m (ie 46%) can be immediately identified as relating to infrastructure.

The fund has a formal, staged assessment process and a range of eligibility criteria before its board will consider making an investment decision to grant financial assistance to any project. Within this context however, the Mardie project may be said to have cleared the second stage of the process and will now work with the NAIF during the Due Diligence stage, during which BCI will develop a formal Investment Proposal for the fund to consider. At the same time, BCI’s Managing Director, Alwyn Vorster, has been quoted as saying that BCI is also making “solid progress” in developing product off-take support, including a number of non-binding Memoranda of Understanding with several “credible” salt end users in Asia.


Exhibit 8: Financial summary

A$'000s

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

June

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

281,211

151,279

64,324

33,029

63,814

85,645

Cost of Sales

(278,465)

(158,210)

(55,190)

(47,442)

(67,043)

(96,298)

Gross Profit

2,746

(6,931)

9,134

(14,413)

(3,229)

(10,653)

EBITDA

 

 

2,746

(6,931)

9,134

(14,413)

(3,229)

(10,653)

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

(26,090)

(12,622)

5,665

(17,330)

(6,146)

(13,570)

Intangible Amortisation

0

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

(170,881)

(40,108)

(302)

0

17,818

0

Other

(2,935)

812

(5)

0

0

0

Operating Profit

(199,906)

(51,918)

5,358

(17,330)

11,672

(13,570)

Net Interest

(3,505)

(951)

311

420

98

510

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(29,595)

(13,573)

5,976

(16,910)

(6,048)

(13,060)

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(203,411)

(52,869)

5,669

(16,910)

11,770

(13,060)

Tax

44,912

(27,086)

0

0

1,510

0

Profit After Tax (norm)

12,382

(39,847)

5,971

(16,910)

(4,538)

(13,060)

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(158,499)

(79,955)

5,669

(16,910)

13,280

(13,060)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

174.8

196.2

316.7

394.6

397.6

397.6

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

7.1

(20.3)

1.9

(4.3)

(1.1)

(3.3)

EPS - normalised and fully diluted (c)

 

7.1

(19.5)

1.9

(4.3)

(1.1)

(3.1)

EPS - (IFRS) (c)

 

 

(90.7)

(40.8)

1.8

(4.3)

3.3

(3.3)

Dividend per share (p)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

1.0

N/A

14.2

N/A

N/A

N/A

EBITDA Margin (%)

1.0

N/A

14.2

N/A

N/A

N/A

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

N/A

N/A

8.8

N/A

N/A

N/A

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

154,904

86,546

78,059

85,768

78,669

85,752

Intangible Assets

60,237

33,618

33,063

43,615

39,433

49,433

Tangible Assets

94,667

52,928

44,996

42,153

39,236

36,319

Investments

0

0

0

0

0

0

Current Assets

 

 

102,374

23,204

46,429

20,270

44,080

28,466

Stocks

9,886

61

0

0

87

117

Debtors

24,427

13,694

10,053

7,213

9,992

10,090

Cash

67,671

9,449

36,376

13,057

34,000

18,259

Other

390

0

0

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(77,222)

(21,769)

(12,107)

(9,373)

(12,804)

(17,334)

Creditors

(70,947)

(19,749)

(12,107)

(9,373)

(12,804)

(17,334)

Short term borrowings

(6,275)

(2,020)

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(20,773)

(11,307)

(5,225)

(6,054)

(6,054)

(6,054)

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

(20,773)

(11,307)

(5,225)

(6,054)

(6,054)

(6,054)

Net Assets

 

 

159,283

76,674

107,156

90,611

103,891

90,830

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(77,686)

(19,721)

11,860

(11,957)

(2,665)

(6,251)

Net Interest

(1,120)

0

0

0

98

510

Tax

44,912

(27,086)

0

0

1,510

0

Capex

(10,987)

(8,075)

(2,220)

(10,074)

(5,000)

(10,000)

Acquisitions/disposals

24,338

0

(5,151)

(1,288)

27,000

0

Financing

6,118

1,510

24,403

0

0

0

Dividends

(18,652)

0

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

(33,077)

(53,372)

28,892

(23,319)

20,943

(15,741)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(94,473)

(61,396)

(7,429)

(36,376)

(13,057)

(34,000)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

0

(595)

55

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(61,396)

(7,429)

(36,376)

(13,057)

(34,000)

(18,259)

Source: Company sources, Edison Investment Research


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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers’ exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Research: Healthcare

Hutchison China MediTech — An emerging global biopharma

Hutchison China MediTech (HCM) has announced positive data that key late-stage asset surufatinib met the primary endpoint of PFS in non-pancreatic at the Phase III interim analysis. This translates to an earlier than expected China NDA submission (H219) and the potential launch of HCM’s first un-partnered asset (early 2021). In China, partner Lilly has launched Elunate (fruquintinib) capsules. Early sales look promising and its potential inclusion on the China NRDL later this year will be definitive to the China opportunity. However, failure of fruquintinib monotherapy in third-line NSCLC and the changes in strategy to savolitinib in RCC has negatively affected our valuation. We forecast two further product launches on the horizon in 2021/2022 (China launch of fruquintinib in gastric cancer and global launch of savolitinib in NSCLC). HHHL has completed a secondary offering of ADSs, which has reduced its holding to 51.15% (from 60.2% previously). We see this as a significant positive for HCM as it increases the free float, potentially leading to better liquidity. We value HCM at $5.6bn (£6.72/share) vs $6.5bn previously.

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