La Doria — Investment continues

La Doria (MI: LD)

Last close As at 28/03/2024

16.46

0.00 (0.00%)

Market capitalisation

511m

More on this equity

Research: Consumer

La Doria — Investment continues

La Doria continues to post good sales growth, despite the ongoing tough economic backdrop. Organic sales growth of 2.3% in H119 builds on a good H118. The important variables at this time of year are the outcomes of the seasonal campaigns and the corresponding customer negotiations. Raw materials continue to experience inflation, while customers continue to apply downward pressure to prices thus resulting in an unfavourable margin environment. Indeed, the EBITDA margin was down 50bp to 6.5% in H119. Management’s investment programme continues as planned, with €32.5m spent during the period. We leave our forecasts unchanged, and believe the current share price offers a good entry point. Our fair value rises to €14.00 (from €13.60) as we roll forward our DCF.

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Consumer

La Doria

Investment continues

H119 results

Food & beverages

11 September 2019

Price

€8.85

Market cap

€274m

Net debt (€m) at 30 June 2019

107.2

Shares in issue

30.9m

Free float

37%

Code

LD

Primary exchange

Borsa Italia (STAR)

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

12.7

10.5

(13.7)

Rel (local)

5.3

4.2

(15.9)

52-week high/low

€12.14

€7.48

Business description

La Doria is the leading manufacturer of private-label preserved vegetables and fruit for the Italian (20% of revenues) and international (80% of revenues) markets. It enjoys leading market share positions across its product ranges in the UK, Italy, Germany and Australia.

Next events

9M19 results

10 November 2019

Analysts

Sara Welford

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Russell Pointon

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

La Doria is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

La Doria continues to post good sales growth, despite the ongoing tough economic backdrop. Organic sales growth of 2.3% in H119 builds on a good H118. The important variables at this time of year are the outcomes of the seasonal campaigns and the corresponding customer negotiations. Raw materials continue to experience inflation, while customers continue to apply downward pressure to prices thus resulting in an unfavourable margin environment. Indeed, the EBITDA margin was down 50bp to 6.5% in H119. Management’s investment programme continues as planned, with €32.5m spent during the period. We leave our forecasts unchanged, and believe the current share price offers a good entry point. Our fair value rises to €14.00 (from €13.60) as we roll forward our DCF.

Year end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/17

669.1

39.7

98.1

23.0

9.0

2.6

12/18

687.9

33.1

88.2

18.0

10.0

2.0

12/19e

690.0

35.0

82.4

20.0

10.7

2.3

12/20e

717.6

39.7

93.5

21.0

9.5

2.4

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Tomato campaign

The cooler weather in Italy in May delayed the start of the tomato campaign, which is currently expected to finish in the first half of October. Volumes so far are slightly lower than expected, resulting in rising prices. Importantly, deliveries of fresh tomatoes are being adversely affected by changeable weather, which is causing lines to run below full capacity. As a reminder, La Doria has ‘cost-plus’ agreements with some of its strategic customers, so will be able to pass on any increased costs. This helps mitigate the risk for margin compression.

H119 results as expected

Sales growth was particularly impressive in the Vegetable line (8.6%) with strong growth in international markets, and the Sauces division (4.8%). The Red line was stable (+0.8%), while the Fruit line continued to decline (-1.7%) due to a fall in domestic consumption. EBITDA margin was down 50bp during the period due to higher costs, while the EBIT margin was down 100bp due to higher depreciation as the investment plan is underway. With customer negotiations still ongoing across the Red line, Pulses, pasta Sauces and Fruit lines, we leave our estimates unchanged at this stage.

Valuation: Fair value of €14.00/share

Our DCF model indicates a fair value of €14.00 per share (from €13.60 previously as we roll forward our DCF), or c 60% upside from the current share price. La Doria trades on 9.5x FY20e P/E, a c 25% discount to its private-label peer group. On EV/EBITDA it trades at 7.0x FY20e, a c 20% discount. We believe La Doria remains an attractive proposition, given the strength of its market position in the private-label segment. Management remains committed to improving the stability of the business, while continuing to invest to maintain its competitive edge.

H119 results review

Consolidated revenues were up 2.7% y-o-y to €358.7m in H119, or +2.3% at constant currency. EBITDA was down 5% to €23.3m, with the EBITDA margin down 50bp to 6.5%. EBIT was down 17% to €15.0m, with the margin down 100bp to 4.2%. Net debt was €107.2m vs €112.3m at the end of FY18 and €64.4m at the end of H118, following a major investment of €32.5m during H119, as part of management’s investment plan.

The Pulses and Vegetables line performed strongly, with sales up 8.6%. The Sauces line also showed good growth (+4.8%), while the tomato-based business was broadly flat (+0.8%). The Fruit line continued to suffer, with revenues down 1.7% due to continued weak consumption in the domestic market, and the ‘other lines’ (ie the trading business that goes through UK subsidiary LDH) was down marginally in sales terms (-0.9%). Overall, sales in the domestic market were down (-4.4%), while international sales were up (+4.4%).

Valuation

We illustrate La Doria’s valuation versus its peers in Exhibit 1 below. On our 2020 estimates, La Doria currently trades at a c 25% discount on a P/E basis, which we believe is unwarranted given the company’s balance sheet is conservatively managed. On EV/EBITDA, La Doria trades at a c 20% discount to the peer group.

Exhibit 1: Benchmark valuation of La Doria relative to peers

Market cap

P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

Dividend yield (%)

(m)

2019e

2020e

2019e

2020e

2019e

2020e

Greencore

£996.0

14.5

12.2

8.9

8.3

2.7

3.0

Ebro Foods

£2,993.0

18.3

16.3

10.7

9.8

3.3

3.5

Bonduelle

€745.9

9.6

8.9

6.9

7.4

2.3

2.4

Valsoia

€108.6

15.8

N/A

7.9

N/A

3.7

N/A

Peer group average

14.5

12.5

8.6

8.5

3.0

3.0

La Doria

€ 274.4

10.7

9.5

7.8

7.0

2.3

2.4

Premium/(discount) to peer group

(26.1%)

(24.0%)

(9.3%)

(17.3%)

(24.8%)

(20.0%)

Source: Edison Investment Research estimates, Refinitiv. Note: Prices at 10 September 2019.

We have rolled forward our DCF to commence in 2020, so our fair value rises to €14.00 per share (from €13.60 previously). This is based on our assumptions of a 1.5% terminal growth rate and a 7.0% terminal EBIT margin. Our WACC of 6.4% is predicated on an equity risk premium of 4%, borrowing spread of 5% and beta of 0.8. Below, we show a sensitivity analysis to our assumptions and note that the current share price is discounting a terminal EBIT margin of 5.5% (which compares with La Doria’s FY18 EBITDA margin of 7.7% and EBIT margin of 5.1%) and a terminal growth rate of 0.1%.

Exhibit 2: DCF sensitivity to terminal growth rate and EBIT margin (€/share)

EBIT margin

5.5%

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

Terminal growth

-2.5%

7.0

7.6

8.1

8.7

9.3

9.9

-1.5%

7.6

8.2

8.9

9.6

10.2

10.9

-0.5%

8.3

9.1

9.8

10.6

11.4

12.2

0.5%

9.3

10.2

11.1

12.0

12.9

13.9

1.5%

10.7

11.8

12.9

14.0

15.1

16.3

2.5%

12.9

14.3

15.7

17.1

18.5

19.9

3.5%

16.5

18.4

20.3

22.3

24.2

26.1

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

€m

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

2021e

2022e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

669.1

687.9

690.0

717.6

739.1

761.3

Cost of Sales

(555.7)

(581.7)

(583.4)

(603.9)

(618.3)

(636.1)

Gross Profit

113.4

106.2

106.5

113.7

120.8

125.2

EBITDA

 

 

60.1

52.8

53.0

58.7

64.9

67.6

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

41.6

34.8

37.0

41.7

45.9

47.6

Intangible Amortisation

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

FX Gain / (loss)

0.2

3.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Operating Profit

41.8

37.9

37.0

41.7

45.9

47.6

Net Interest

(1.9)

(1.7)

(2.0)

(2.0)

(2.0)

(2.0)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

39.7

33.1

35.0

39.7

43.9

45.6

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

39.9

36.3

35.0

39.7

43.9

45.6

Tax

(9.5)

(8.9)

(9.4)

(10.7)

(11.8)

(12.3)

Profit After Tax (norm)

30.4

27.3

25.5

29.0

32.0

33.3

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

30.4

27.3

25.5

29.0

32.0

33.3

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

31.0

31.0

31.0

31.0

31.0

31.0

EPS - normalised fully diluted (c)

 

 

98.1

88.2

82.4

93.5

103.3

107.4

EPS - (IFRS) (c)

 

 

98.1

88.2

82.4

93.5

103.3

107.4

Dividend per share (c)

23.0

18.0

20.0

21.0

22.0

22.0

Gross Margin (%)

16.9

15.4

15.4

15.8

16.3

16.4

EBITDA Margin (%)

9.0

7.7

7.7

8.2

8.8

8.9

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

6.2

5.1

5.4

5.8

6.2

6.3

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

174.0

203.5

246.0

254.2

254.4

242.4

Intangible Assets

6.1

5.5

4.8

4.1

3.4

2.7

Tangible Assets

149.9

175.9

216.6

215.3

205.0

193.7

Investments

18.0

22.1

24.5

34.7

45.9

45.9

Current Assets

 

 

394.2

419.4

378.1

403.0

437.7

474.9

Stocks

209.5

204.4

201.3

205.3

207.1

213.1

Debtors

106.5

110.2

107.6

109.1

110.9

114.2

Cash

66.7

86.8

51.2

70.6

101.7

129.6

Other

11.5

18.0

18.0

18.0

18.0

18.0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(209.8)

(242.3)

(234.4)

(238.5)

(241.3)

(244.9)

Creditors

(142.1)

(148.4)

(140.5)

(144.6)

(147.5)

(151.0)

Short term borrowings

(67.6)

(93.9)

(93.9)

(93.9)

(93.9)

(93.9)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(131.5)

(139.3)

(122.8)

(122.8)

(122.8)

(122.8)

Long term borrowings

(97.2)

(105.2)

(105.2)

(105.2)

(105.2)

(105.2)

Other long-term liabilities

(34.3)

(34.1)

(17.6)

(17.6)

(17.6)

(17.6)

Net Assets

 

 

227.0

241.4

266.9

295.9

327.9

349.6

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

35.4

48.2

41.3

46.6

52.3

49.6

Net Interest

(1.9)

(1.7)

(2.0)

(2.0)

(2.0)

(2.0)

Tax

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Capex

(17.6)

(46.5)

(56.0)

(15.0)

(8.0)

(8.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

(0.4)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Financing

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Dividends

(7.7)

(9.6)

(8.9)

(10.1)

(11.2)

(11.6)

Other

(2.4)

(4.6)

(10.0)

(0.0)

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

5.4

(14.1)

(35.6)

19.4

31.1

27.9

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

104.8

98.2

112.3

147.9

128.5

97.4

HP finance leases initiated

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

1.2

(0.0)

(0.0)

0.0

(0.0)

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

98.2

112.3

147.9

128.5

97.4

69.5

Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by La Doria and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by La Doria. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

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Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

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New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by La Doria and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by La Doria. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

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Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

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United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Delignit — Missing a gear

After further positive guidance in April, Delignit’s H119 earnings shortfall (EBITDA down 16%) and full-year profit warning are all the more disappointing. In mitigation, the company has arguably been a victim of its own successful Automotive OEM business in ramping up for special call-offs that may yet materialise, while incurring higher costs than planned for a still potentially transformative motor caravan order. Management now expects 2019 revenue of €64m (ahead of last year but below the original forecast of €70m) and an EBITDA margin between 6% and 7% (originally 9.3%, as in 2018). Its confidence in Delignit’s strategic direction and long-term prospects appears to remain undimmed.

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