Investing for sustainable growth

Esker 21 April 2017 Update
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Esker

Investing for sustainable growth

FY16 results

Software & comp services

21 April 2017

Price

€47.01

Market cap

€253m

$1.08/€1

Net cash (€m) at end FY16

13.7

Shares in issue

5.3m

Free float

76%

Code

ALESK

Primary exchange

Alternext Paris

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(0.6)

(5.9)

69.7

Rel (local)

(2.0)

(10.5)

52.5

52-week high/low

€50.0

€27.3

Business description

Esker provides end-to-end document automation solutions, offering on-premise and on-demand delivery models. The business generates 50% of revenues from Europe, 40% from the US and the remainder from Asia and Australia.

Next event

Q2 revenues

18 July 2017

Analysts

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

Bridie Barrett

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Esker is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Esker reported another year of double-digit organic revenue growth and confirmed that it expects to achieve similar in FY17. The company’s investment in headcount was higher than we expected and is likely to continue at a similar pace in FY17. While this weighs on our earnings forecasts, it should provide the foundations to support growth on a multi-year basis. Bolt-on acquisitions of businesses with a similar recurring revenue model and complementary technology are likely to accelerate the pace of growth.

Year end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/15

58.5

9.3

1.31

0.30

35.9

0.6

12/16

66.0

9.9

1.23

0.33

38.2

0.7

12/17e

75.6

11.9

1.42

0.36

33.1

0.8

12/18e

82.0

12.8

1.51

0.39

31.1

0.8

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

FY16: Another strong year

Esker reported FY16 revenue growth of 13% and normalised operating profit growth of 7%. The SaaS business, which now makes up 77% of revenues, continues to show double-digit growth (+20% vs +24% in FY15), and this growth more than outweighs the decline in the Legacy business. During FY16 contracts worth more than €9m were signed (+33% y-o-y), which should contribute to revenues over the next two to three years. Recurring revenues were flat at 79% of total revenues. The company ended FY16 with net cash of €13.7m. Management expects to be able to generate double-digit organic growth in FY17.

Maintaining high levels of investment for growth

Esker increased headcount faster than we expected in FY16 and expects to invest at a similar pace in FY17, before incorporating the recent e-integration acquisition (effective 1 January 2017). This has the effect of reducing our operating margin forecasts. Combined with increasing tax rates, this results in a cut to our FY17 normalised EPS forecast. In addition to investing to drive medium-term organic growth, management continues to seek out bolt-on acquisitions and has a strong cash position to fund this.

Valuation: Reflects strength of SaaS business

On an EV/sales and P/E basis, Esker is trading at a premium to document process automation software companies and French small-cap software companies; in our view this is justified by forecast revenue growth and operating margins that are higher than both groups. In our view, the transition to SaaS is likely to suppress operating margins across the software sector (even after transition costs are taken into account). Esker is ahead of many peers in making this transition and is generating strong growth and margins. The company has recurring revenues of c 80%, which provides a high level of revenue and cash flow predictability.

Review of FY16 results

Exhibit 1: FY16 results highlights

€m

FY16e

FY16a

difference

y-o-y

Revenues

66.0

66.0

0.0%

12.9%

EBITDA

15.4

14.9

-3.3%

10.9%

EBITDA margin

23.3%

22.5%

-0.8%

-0.4%

Normalised EBIT

10.66

9.93

-6.8%

7.3%

EBIT margin

16.1%

15.1%

-1.1%

-0.8%

PBT

10.9

9.9

-8.8%

6.8%

Normalised net income

8.2

6.8

-17.0%

-1.3%

Normalised EPS

1.50

1.23

-18.1%

-6.0%

Reported EPS

1.49

1.23

-17.1%

-5.3%

Net cash

14.7

13.7

-6.7%

52.4%

DPS

0.33

0.33

0.0%

10.0%

Source: Esker, Edison Investment Research

Esker reported revenue growth of 12.9% for FY16 (like-for-like, constant currency +12%), in line with our forecast. EBITDA came in 3% below our forecast due to higher than forecast staff costs – we estimate Esker hired 40 staff during the year, taking average headcount from 350 in FY15 to more than 400 in FY16. The company highlighted that it had hired more R&D staff (+26%), more sales staff (+15%) and more consulting staff (+21%) to ensure continued growth on a medium-term basis. This resulted in a 15.1% EBIT margin, 1pp below the margin generated in FY15. The company reported a small net finance cost compared to our forecast for net interest income (as the company is in a strong net cash position) – this includes FX losses from the UK business since sterling weakened against the euro. The reported tax rate increased from 26% in FY15 to 32% in FY16, as profits were taxed at close to the statutory rate in most geographies – this was a higher rate than we had forecast. Net cash increased 52% y-o-y to reach €13.7m at year-end. The company incurred exceptional costs of €0.2m for office moves in Lyon and Madison, and a further €0.2m for pension provisions.

The company’s joint venture with Neopost saw a 70% increase in volumes over the year. Esker’s share of the results (30%) was €123k for FY16, up from €61k in FY15. The company noted that services provided to the JV generated c 5% of Esker’s revenues.

Business update

DPA business continues strong growth trajectory

Excluding legacy products, Esker grew revenues 16% in FY16. The TermSync business made good progress, contributing revenues of €0.95m in FY16, up from €0.33m in FY15. CalvaEDI showed minimal revenue growth (revenues of €2.5m grew 2% on a pro-forma basis) but generated an operating margin of 48%. SaaS-based revenues grew 20% y-o-y to make up 66% of the total (FY15 63%).

Contracts signed in FY16 support growth over next 2-3 years

In FY16, customers signed contracts worth €9.2m (+33% y-o-y), with an average term of three years. Contracts typically consist of a fixed monthly subscription fee (which includes a minimum volume of documents) plus a per document fee once the minimum volume has been reached. While only a small proportion of the contract value would have been recognised in FY16, all customer acquisition costs were expensed in the year.

Materiality of declining legacy business reducing

Legacy Products declined 19%, to make up only 6.7% of revenues in FY16 (FY15 9.3%). We expect a further decline in the coming years.

Plans for FY17

Process: the company continues to work on reducing the time it takes to implement new contracts and reducing the length of the sales cycle. At the same time, it is investing to improve the security, performance and scalability of the SaaS platform.

Product: the company plans to launch the TermSync product in France – it has only been available in the US to date. The JV is looking to extend its offering to the US, UK, Belgium and Ireland.

M&A: management will focus on integrating the recent e-integration acquisition as well as looking for other appropriate acquisition targets, with a particular focus on the UK.

Outlook and changes to forecasts

The company expects to generate double-digit organic revenue growth in FY17 and expects to generate better growth than in FY16, despite a tough comparison for Legacy Products in H117. The e-integration acquisition completed in February and will be consolidated from 1 January 2017.

Despite the strong revenue growth in recent years, the operating margin has not expanded as fast as it could have done because management has been keen to reinvest to support revenue growth in the longer term. Average headcount has increased from 294 in FY13 to more than 400 in FY16, partly through acquisition but also through a concerted effort to build the R&D team and strengthen customer support and sales and marketing. We expect the company to continue to invest heavily in these parts of the business, which means that operating margins are likely to remain around the 15% level.

We have revised our forecasts to reflect the following:

Revenues: we factor in growth in DPA software and services of 12% in FY17 and 10% in FY18 (including the 2015 acquisitions of TermSync and Calva-EDI). We reduce our Legacy Products forecasts by €1.2m to €3.6m in FY17 and assume a further decline to €3.2m in FY18 (to 3.9% of total revenues). This results in organic growth forecasts of 10% in FY17 and 9% in FY18. We also incorporate e-integration, assuming revenues of €3m in FY17 and €3.1m in FY18 (this compares to revenues of €3.2m in 2016).

Staff costs: we have factored in an increase in headcount of 68 in FY17 (including 30 staff in Germany for e-integration) and 34 heads in FY18.

Tax rate: we have increased our forecast rate from 25% to 33% for FY17 and use 33% for FY18.

Normalised EPS: the combination of lower normalised operating profit (due to higher investment in headcount), higher tax and a small increase in the share count (some of the
e-integration initial consideration was settled with equity) results in a cut to our FY17e forecast of 23% (y-o-y growth 15.9%). We forecast EPS growth of 5.9% in FY18.

Net cash: the combination of lower EBITDA, higher tax and the cost of acquiring e-integration results in a cut to our year-end FY17 net cash forecast.

Exhibit 2: Changes to forecasts

€m

FY17e old

FY17e new

change

y-o-y

FY18e new

y-o-y

Revenues

73.6

75.6

2.8%

14.6%

82.0

8.5%

EBITDA

18.5

16.6

-10.1%

11.9%

17.7

6.2%

EBITDA margin

25.2%

22.0%

-3.1%

-0.5%

21.6%

-0.5%

Normalised EBIT

13.6

11.6

-14.5%

17.2%

12.6

8.0%

EBIT margin

18.5%

15.4%

-3.1%

0.4%

15.3%

-0.1%

PBT

13.9

11.9

-14.4%

19.3%

12.8

7.8%

Normalised net income

10.4

8.0

-23.5%

17.2%

8.6

7.8%

Normalised EPS, €

1.84

1.42

-22.8%

15.9%

1.51

5.9%

Reported EPS, €

1.87

1.48

-21.2%

19.8%

1.56

6.0%

Net cash

21.6

14.4

-33.4%

5.2%

18.7

29.7%

DPS, €

0.36

0.36

0.0%

9.1%

0.39

8.3%

Source: Edison Investment Research


Exhibit 3: Financial summary

€'000s

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017e

2018e

Year end 31 December

French GAAP

French GAAP

French GAAP

French GAAP

French GAAP

French GAAP

French GAAP

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

40,260

41,116

46,061

58,457

65,990

75,597

82,009

EBITDA

 

 

6,637

6,598

8,979

13,405

14,871

16,646

17,674

Operating Profit (before amort and except)

 

 

4,265

3,883

5,700

9,257

9,934

11,646

12,574

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0

0

0

(302)

(200)

(200)

(200)

Exceptionals and other income

(16)

60

53

(245)

(474)

0

0

Other income

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

4,249

3,943

5,753

8,710

9,260

11,446

12,374

Net Interest

38

6

220

(6)

(108)

100

100

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

4,303

3,889

5,920

9,312

9,949

11,869

12,797

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

4,287

3,949

5,973

8,765

9,275

11,669

12,597

Tax

(1,286)

(761)

(1,323)

(2,292)

(2,950)

(3,851)

(4,157)

Profit After Tax (norm)

3,012

3,140

4,609

6,877

6,785

7,952

8,574

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

3,001

3,188

4,650

6,473

6,325

7,818

8,440

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

4.7

4.7

4.8

5.0

5.1

5.3

5.4

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

64

67

97

138

132

150

159

EPS - normalised fully diluted (c)

 

 

60

62

90

131

123

142

151

EPS - (GAAP) (c)

 

 

64

68

97

130

123

148

156

Dividend per share (c)

14.00

18.00

24.00

30.00

33.00

36.00

39.00

Gross margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

EBITDA Margin (%)

16.5

16.0

19.5

22.9

22.5

22.0

21.6

Operating Margin (before GW and except) (%)

10.6

9.4

12.4

15.8

15.1

15.4

15.3

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

8,764

9,437

12,552

25,184

28,324

36,352

38,125

Intangible Assets

5,521

6,458

7,709

19,603

22,381

30,599

32,522

Tangible Assets

2,835

2,450

4,470

4,985

5,158

4,968

4,818

Other

408

529

373

596

785

785

785

Current Assets

 

 

24,358

26,834

33,894

36,110

42,024

45,575

51,778

Stocks

100

89

93

161

101

101

101

Debtors

11,567

12,144

15,110

18,073

19,523

22,368

24,266

Cash

11,393

13,411

17,559

16,295

21,338

22,044

26,350

Other

1,298

1,190

1,132

1,581

1,062

1,062

1,062

Current Liabilities

 

 

(15,551)

(16,164)

(19,827)

(24,789)

(28,299)

(30,752)

(32,390)

Creditors

(15,551)

(16,164)

(19,827)

(24,789)

(28,299)

(30,752)

(32,390)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(2,019)

(1,450)

(5,113)

(7,317)

(7,657)

(9,757)

(9,757)

Long term borrowings

(2,019)

(1,450)

(5,113)

(7,317)

(7,657)

(7,657)

(7,657)

Other long term liabilities

0

0

0

0

0

(2,100)

(2,100)

Net Assets

 

 

15,552

18,657

21,506

29,188

34,392

41,417

47,757

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

6,163

6,539

9,245

14,307

16,303

16,254

17,415

Net Interest

122

90

310

(27)

(127)

100

100

Tax

(1,366)

(645)

(1,075)

(1,165)

(1,456)

(3,851)

(4,157)

Capex

(3,548)

(3,434)

(4,028)

(3,909)

(7,021)

(6,718)

(7,074)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

22

(11,700)

(948)

(3,300)

0

Financing

400

628

(694)

1,324

(581)

0

0

Dividends

(550)

(659)

(877)

(1,208)

(1,550)

(1,780)

(1,978)

Net Cash Flow

1,221

2,519

2,903

(2,378)

4,620

706

4,306

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(8,526)

(9,354)

(11,961)

(12,446)

(8,978)

(13,681)

(14,387)

HP finance leases initiated

(393)

0

(2,293)

(1,090)

83

0

0

Other

(0)

88

(125)

0

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(9,354)

(11,961)

(12,446)

(8,978)

(13,681)

(14,387)

(18,693)

Source: Esker, Edison Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Esker and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

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Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

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NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

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Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Esker and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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