In-line trading, underpinned by Infovest contract

StatPro Group 25 October 2018 Update
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StatPro Group

In-line trading, underpinned by Infovest contract

Q3 trading update

Software & comp services

25 October 2018

Price

122.50p

Market cap

£80m

Net debt (£m) at 30 June 2018

23.2

Shares in issue

65.6m

Free float

82%

Code

SOG

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(11.4)

(27.4)

(17.8)

Rel (local)

(4.5)

(19.4)

(11.1)

52-week high/low

186.5p

114.0p

Business description

StatPro Group provides cloud-based portfolio analytics solutions to the global investment community.

Next events

Trading update

January 2019

Final results

March 2019

Analysts

Richard Jeans

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)20 3077 5729

StatPro Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

In an in-line Q3 trading update, StatPro says that its annualised recurring revenue (ARR) rose by 3% at constant currencies over the past 12 months to £54.8m. Additionally, earlier this week StatPro announced a c £1.0m five-year Infovest contract, which highlights the quality of the group’s Infovest data management solution. The main focus for growth remains the fund administrator channel and, in January, the group will operate a new structure with three divisions (Revolution for analytics, StatPro: Source for data, and Infovest for integration and data management) to drive the business. Following the recent de-rating, we believe the shares look increasing attractive on 15x our maintained FY19 earnings, especially in light of the active M&A backdrop in financial software and the scope for revenue acceleration and margin expansion.

Year
end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/16

37.5

2.7

3.3

2.9

36.6

2.4

12/17

49.3

3.3

5.8

2.9

21.1

2.4

12/18e

56.8

5.0

7.0

2.9

17.6

2.4

12/19e

59.5

6.2

8.0

2.9

15.3

2.4

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Q3 trading: Underlying ARR grows 3% in 12 months

The group’s ARR rose by 3% to £54.8m over the 12 months to 30 September. This includes c £1.4m from the managed risk service of ODDO that was acquired in July. Importantly, StatPro Revolution’s underlying ARR growth (excluding the impact of acquired revenue and including conversions from StatPro Seven) was 16%. The migration of Delta is progressing well. While the underlying ARR number was broadly in line with the 30 June level, management remains confident that growth will accelerate, largely driven by the reseller (fund administrator/outsourcing) channel, outsourced managed services, the exploitation of under-utilised data assets and value-enhancing acquisitions. Further, profitability will be enhanced from disciplined management of costs. We have maintained all of our forecasts.

Sizeable c £1m Infovest contract in South Africa

StatPro has signed a ZAR19.5m (c £1.0m) Infovest contract with a large unnamed South African financial institution that is an existing StatPro customer. The customer will use Infostore to provide a consolidated view of all its positions in the market on a daily basis. In addition, the solution will enable business intelligence and analytics. This contract is among the largest Infovest contracts to date.

Valuation: Highly scalable cloud computing upside

StatPro’s stock trades on c 18x our maintained FY18 EPS, which falls to c 15x in FY19 and to c 13x in FY20. Alternatively, the shares trade on c 1.7x FY19 EV/sales, around half of the level of StatPro’s larger US peers and around one-third of US-based pure software-as-a-service companies. When incorporating 10-year organic revenue growth of c 3.6%, a terminal growth of 2%, a long-term margin target of 24.0% and a WACC of 9%, our DCF model values the shares at 222p, c 81% above the current share price.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

£000s

2015

2016

2017

2018e

2019e

2020e

Year-end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

30,187

37,545

49,260

56,751

59,501

62,123

Cost of Sales

0

0

0

0

0

0

Gross Profit

30,187

37,545

49,260

56,751

59,501

62,123

EBITDA

 

 

4,044

5,104

6,838

8,743

9,511

10,455

Adjusted Operating Profit

 

 

2,852

3,461

4,917

6,818

7,642

8,643

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(32)

(1,060)

(2,243)

(3,243)

(3,243)

(3,243)

Exceptionals

0

(11,378)

(3,934)

0

0

0

Share based payments

(121)

(361)

(626)

(650)

(675)

(700)

Operating Profit

2,699

(9,338)

(1,886)

2,925

3,724

4,700

Net Interest

(290)

(786)

(1,585)

(1,839)

(1,414)

(1,214)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

2,562

2,675

3,332

4,980

6,228

7,429

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

2,409

(10,124)

(3,471)

1,087

2,310

3,486

Tax

(788)

(489)

563

(354)

(934)

(1,404)

Profit After Tax (norm)

1,774

2,843

4,505

4,626

5,294

6,025

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

1,621

(10,613)

(2,908)

733

1,376

2,082

Minority interests

0

(94)

(131)

(40)

0

0

Net income (norm)

1,774

2,186

3,764

4,586

5,294

6,025

Net income (statutory)

1,621

(10,707)

(3,039)

693

1,376

2,082

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

67.6

65.3

64.8

65.7

66.0

66.3

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

2.6

3.3

5.8

7.0

8.0

9.1

EPS - FRS 3 (p)

 

 

2.4

(16.4)

(4.7)

1.1

2.1

3.1

Dividend per share (p)

2.90

2.90

2.90

2.90

2.90

2.90

Gross Margin (%)

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

13.4

13.6

13.9

15.4

16.0

16.8

Operating Margin (before GW & except.) (%)

9.4

9.2

10.0

12.0

12.8

13.9

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

51,857

59,088

70,864

68,960

67,074

65,182

Intangible Assets

48,613

55,696

64,793

63,282

61,479

59,536

Tangible Assets

2,233

2,742

3,303

2,910

2,827

2,878

Other assets

1,011

650

2,768

2,768

2,768

2,768

Current Assets

 

 

10,665

19,081

20,912

20,684

22,861

25,167

Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Debtors

8,462

14,725

16,601

19,125

20,052

20,936

Cash

2,203

4,356

4,311

1,559

2,809

4,231

Current Liabilities

 

 

(19,778)

(35,686)

(38,171)

(41,296)

(43,465)

(45,635)

Creditors

(19,660)

(27,227)

(30,720)

(33,845)

(36,014)

(38,184)

Short term borrowings

(118)

(8,459)

(7,451)

(7,451)

(7,451)

(7,451)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(1,227)

(9,897)

(22,989)

(22,290)

(19,363)

(16,437)

Long term borrowings

(801)

(5,961)

(17,076)

(16,377)

(15,677)

(14,978)

Other long term liabilities

(426)

(3,936)

(5,913)

(5,913)

(3,686)

(1,459)

Net Assets

 

 

41,517

32,586

30,616

26,058

27,106

28,277

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

6,548

7,454

10,676

14,600

15,713

17,090

Net Interest

(84)

(500)

(1,227)

(1,839)

(1,414)

(1,214)

Tax

(832)

(1,294)

(144)

(1,227)

(304)

(872)

Capex

(4,999)

(6,445)

(7,213)

(8,043)

(8,336)

(8,694)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

(4,786)

(10,269)

(3,663)

(1,803)

(2,274)

Equity financing

64

(2,079)

926

0

0

0

Dividends

(1,960)

(1,877)

(2,012)

(1,879)

(1,907)

(1,915)

Net Cash Flow

(1,263)

(9,527)

(9,263)

(2,052)

1,950

2,121

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(2,680)

(1,283)

10,065

20,217

22,269

20,319

Other

(134)

(1,821)

(889)

()

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(1,283)

10,065

20,217

22,269

20,319

18,198

Source: StatPro accounts, Edison Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by StatPro Group and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by StatPro Group and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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