Focusing on investment opportunities

Deutsche Rohstoff 22 May 2020 Update
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Deutsche Rohstoff

Focusing on investment opportunities

Oil & gas

Scale research report - Update

26 May 2020

Price

€7.96

Market cap

€40m

Share price graph

Share details

Code

DR0

Listing

Deutsche Börse Scale

Shares in issue

5.08m

Net debt at 31 March 2020

€81.2m

Business description

Deutsche Rohstoff identifies, develops and monetises resource projects in North America, Australia and Europe. The company’s focus is on the development of oil and gas opportunities in the US.

Bull

Track record of value creation.

Acquisition opportunities in US onshore.

Stable liquid position in current environment.

Bear

Diverse commodity focus for a small company.

Disparate US peer group.

High operational leverage if oil prices fall.

Analyst

Carlos Gomes

+44 (0)20 3077 5722

Deutsche Rohstoff (DRAG) had expected a strong increase in production in 2020 and 2021 from the Olander pad, which started at end December 2019, and the Knight wells planned for H220. However, in response to the current low oil price environment DRAG’s management has adjusted its strategy and reduced costs and production. It has also shifted its strategy to focus on investment opportunities generated by the current low market, allocating up to $25m to purchase assets deemed to be undervalued in the current crisis. This strategic flexibility is possible due to DRAG’s liquidity and strong balance sheet. Management guides to FY20 sales of €33–37m and EBITDA of c €15m, mainly due to significantly reduced production for the year and lower realised oil prices.

Strategy adjusted in response to COVID-19

So far, 2020 has been challenging for the oil and gas industry, with the COVID-19 global pandemic and the Russia/Saudi Arabia oil price war disrupting the market. As a result, management initiated a cost-reduction process and adjusted production. The operated Olander pad production was halted at the end of April and a reduced dividend of €0.10 is to be proposed (prior year €0.70).

Flexibility from lower costs and robust balance sheet

DRAG is in a solid liquidity position to weather the current headwinds following management actions and the raising of c €87.1m via a bond placing in late 2019. In January 2020, the bond 16/21 was called and repaid at 50% of its remaining outstanding amount. With reduced production, the company is in a position to take advantage of opportunities arising from the current environment in the oil and gas market. The company announced in April that it would invest up to $25m in oil and gold companies and take advantage of current low valuations.

Valuation: Below audited reserve values

DRAG’s February 2020 independent 1P and 2P valuation of its oil and gas assets was €177.6m, including Elster Oil & Gas, Cub Creek Energy, Salt Creek Oil & Gas and Bright Rock Energy. Although DRAG has 100% of its 2020 reduced production hedged at an average price of $58/bbl, oil prices have significantly dropped since the reserves’ CPR valuation date. We assume DRAG’s mining assets are valued at book value, adding in end-2019 net debt. This amounts to an SOTP valuation of c €131m or €25.8/share, rising to €27.5/share including 2P reserves.

Historical financials

Year
end

Revenue
(€m)

EBITDA
(€m)

EPS
(€)

DPS
(€)

Capex
(€m)

Yield
(%)

12/18

109.05

97.93

2.74

0.70

(66.2)

8.8

12/19

41.20

22.70

0.06

0.10

(49.7)

1.3

Source: Deutsche Rohstoff

Edison Investment Research provides qualitative research coverage on companies in the Deutsche Börse Scale segment in accordance with section 36 subsection 3 of the General Terms and Conditions of Deutsche Börse AG for the Regulated Unofficial Market (Freiverkehr) on Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse (as of 1 March 2017). Two to three research reports will be produced per year. Research reports do not contain Edison analyst financial forecasts.

Well positioned to weather current headwinds

DRAG’s business strategy involves the identification, development and monetisation of attractive resource projects in the Americas and Europe. Following a year of record revenue of €109.1m for DRAG in 2018, management estimates for 2019 were between €40–50m due to natural well declines and new investments coming online in early 2020. Realised revenue stood at €41.2m, within guidance; however, EBITDA was slightly below guidance of €25–35m, at €22.7m, justified by unexpected lower oil production from Elster Oil & Gas due to infrastructure work and pipeline capacity.

In line with company strategy, in FY19 DRAG main focus remained on its oil and gas activities within its US subsidiaries Cub Creek Energy (88.46% ownership), Elster Oil & Gas (93.00%), Salt Creek Oil & Gas (100%) and Bright Rock Energy (98.35%). At the end of 2019, the company had interests in 55 independently operated horizontal wells in the Wattenberg oil field in Colorado and 230 non-operated wells, also in the Wattenberg oil field, where it had 39 wells, with 90 wells in the Williston Basin in North Dakota and 101 wells in the Uinta Basin in Utah.

FY19 production averaged 4,501boed as the existing wells were able to stabilise production and operating costs were reduced. Drilling at the Olander well pad was completed on budget and on schedule and important foundations were laid for further development at Bright Rock and Salt Creek. However, the global COVID-19 pandemic and related economic impact alongside the lack of agreement among the OPEC+ states has led to further uncertainty for 2020. Before it can plan further wells in the US, management believes it is necessary to wait for the oil price to recover.

In Germany, Rhein Petroleum (10.00%) drilled the Steig-1 well near Weingarten/Baden-Württemberg and a significant discovery was announced. In January 2020, the majority shareholder in Rhein Petroleum, Tulip Oil, published an initial oil-in-place estimate of at least 114m barrels. Rhein Petroleum will focus on developing plans during the year to have additional wells approved for field development.

DRAG is in a solid liquid position to weather the current headwinds following the placement of the corporate bond in late 2019 raising c €87.1m and it is in a position to continue to make investments and take advantage of opportunities arising from the current environment in the oil and gas market. In April the company announced it would invest up to $25m in shares and bonds of oil companies and, to a lesser extent, gold companies and take advantage of the historically low valuations being observed in the market.

Q120 production stable compared to Q119

DRAG’s net production of oil and gas in the first quarter of the year averaged 6,348boed, in line with the corresponding quarter of the previous year of 6,300boed, resulting in revenue of €16.1m, higher than Q119 at €14.7m. Production levels only started being affected in the second half of March as the company took action to limit production.

At Cub Creek, crude oil production averaged c 2,328boed, more than double the previous year due to the start of production from the Olander well pad. The Olander wells were intentionally started up more slowly than originally intended and at the beginning of March they were already producing c 5,200boed. However, due to the decision to reduce production, this was cut back to around 2,500boed by the end of March and the wells were completely shut in by the end of April. Management believes it makes economic sense to gradually ramp up production at Cub Creek with oil prices of c $35/bbl.

Response to the low oil price environment

In April 2020, DRAG announced certain measures as a reaction to the COVID-19 crisis and the current environment in the oil and gas sector:

Adjustment of production: due to the company’s liquid position and technical feasibility, management decided to reduce production of its operated oil facilities, with Cub Creek limiting oil production to 1,000–1,500bbl/d until the end of June 2020. This is around 15–25% of the originally planned production volume. DRAG is able to ramp production up in the future.

Savings potentials are being identified and realised both in the running costs of production and in administrative costs. Management salary payments will be reduced by 25% over the next six months.

Cub Creek has postponed the decision to develop the Knight well pad until June.

To preserve its funds and prepare for a possible longer period of low prices, management will propose a €0.10 dividend to be paid this year (€0.70 in 2019).

The operated Olander pad production was completely halted at the end of April.

Financials

Management guidance is FY20 sales of €33–37m and EBITDA of c €15m, c 15% and 34% lower than FY19, primarily driven by significantly reduced production for the year and lower realised oil prices. Production from the Olander well pad was completely halted at the end of April, while the other well pads are producing only a minimum, which is partly necessary for regulatory reasons. DRAG is assuming an average annual oil price of $20/bbl in Q220 and $30/bbl in H220.

This approach results in an overall production that is over 50% lower than management previously assumed for 2020. Management believes it makes economic sense to use the existing flexibility and liquidity to preserve existing reserves and only produce when the oil price is expected to pick up, which management expects for 2021.

Management forecasts do not include any unscheduled depreciation. However, if the oil price remains at depressed levels permanently, there is a risk, as has been seen with other industry peers, of impairment losses on the producing oil production facilities in the US, which had a book value of €140m at 31 March 2020.

Overall, DRAG is in a solid liquid position to weather the current headwinds following the placing of the corporate bond in late 2019 raising c €87.1m. End Q120 cash was c €51.9m, leaving the company in a healthy position to make investments and take advantage of opportunities arising from the current environment in the oil and gas market.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

German GAAP (€000s)

2016

2017

2018

2019

Q120

Income statement

 

 

 

 

Sales revenue

9,170

53,746

109,052

41,204

16,119

Growth %

383%

486%

103%

-62%

-61%

EBITDA

6,374

36,126

97,933

22,725

9,498

EBITDA Margin %

70%

67%

90%

55%

59%

EBIT

(541)

5,300

32,700

5,630

73

Net profit (after minority interests)

102

5,549

13,872

308

774

Number of shares (000s)

5,063

5,063

5,063

5,082

5,082

EPS adj. (€/share)

0.02

1.10

2.74

0.06

0.15

DPS (€)

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.10

Balance sheet

Cash and cash equivalents

28,090

29,699

59,989

66,637

51,926

Total assets

193,472

213,574

224,845

278,925

268,809

Total debt

75,243

106,576

93,385

139,111

133,165

Total liability

109,146

121,901

151,007

207,424

193,983

Shareholders’ equity

66,121

56,675

73,837

71,501

74,826

Cash flow statement

Net cash from operating activities

2,914

37,848

68,674

34,935

Net cash from investing activities

(38,791)

(51,625)

(28,268)

(55,234)

Net cash from financing activities

11,516

24,735

(28,626)

35,292

Net cash flow

(24,360)

10,958

11,780

14,993

Bank balances (including investments)

24,634

28,368

45,646

61,281

47,286

Net debt/(cash)

47,153

76,877

33,395

72,474

81,239

Source: Deutsche Rohstoff

Valuation

Considering the independent reserve valuation presented by DRAG in February 2020, the company’s market value is now below the NPV10 of the 1P and 2P reserves for its net oil and gas investments, plus the book value of mining assets minus net debt. Due to the nature of its investments we traditionally valued DRAG on an asset value basis over traditional P&L metrics such as P/E or EV/EBITDA. However, we also have to take into consideration the current market volatility and the downward pressure on short-term oil and gas prices.

At the time of the independent report valuation (February 2020), oil and gas prices were stable and the CPR could not have anticipated the impact of the coronavirus on global oil and gas demand or the impact of the Saudi Arabia/Russia oil price war. The calculation of revenues and cash flows was based on the NYMEX forward curve at 31 December 2019 with an average WTI price of $53.11/bbl; however, EIA estimates at 12 May 2020 for FY20 and FY21 realised WTl prices stood at $30.10/bbl and $43.31/bbl respectively.

With the reduced production, DRAG has 100% of its 2020 production hedged at an average price of $58/bbl, which will minimise the impacts of current oil prices.

We have calculated an SOTP valuation (Exhibit 2) for DRAG. Based on the February 2020 CPR and the end 2019 balance sheet data, the SOTP valuation has slightly decreased compared to end 2018. The valuation of oil and gas assets and the mining assets book value increased, offset by an increase in net debt (from €33.4m to €72.5m), driven by the disposal of Salt Creek acreage.

Exhibit 2: DRAG assets and per-share value

CPR net NPV10 1P

CPR net NPV10 2P

Asset

Value basis

Value
(€m)

Value per share
(€/share)

Value
(€m)

Value per share
(€/share)

Oil & gas assets

CPR*

168.7

33.2

177.6

34.9

Mining and oil investments

FY19 book value

34.9

6.9

34.9

6.9

Cash at bank

FY19 book value

66.6

13.1

66.6

13.1

Debt

FY19 book value

(139.1)

(27.4)

(139.1)

(27.4)

Total equity valuation

131.1

25.8

140.0

27.5

Market value**

41.6

8.2

41.6

8.2

Difference

215%

215%

237%

237%

Source: Deutsche Rohstoff, Edison Investment Research. Note: Number of shares: 5.082m; $1.10/€. *CPR dated December 2019. **Share price at 12 May 2020.

As mentioned above, realised oil prices in 2020 have been lower than were anticipated at the time of the CPR; however, management expects a pick-up in oil prices in the second half of the year as restrictions on movement around the world decrease and the global economy recovers. If oil prices remain lower for a longer period, we will see a decrease in oil and gas asset values.

General disclaimer and copyright

Any Information, data, analysis and opinions contained in this report do not constitute investment advice by Deutsche Börse AG or the Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse. Any investment decision should be solely based on a securities offering document or another document containing all information required to make such an investment decision, including risk factors. This report has been commissioned by Deutsche Börse AG and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally.

Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

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This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

Any Information, data, analysis and opinions contained in this report do not constitute investment advice by Deutsche Börse AG or the Frankfurter Wertpapierbörse. Any investment decision should be solely based on a securities offering document or another document containing all information required to make such an investment decision, including risk factors. This report has been commissioned by Deutsche Börse AG and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally.

Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2020 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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