Fluence Corporation — Exceptional bookings growth

Fluence Corporation — Exceptional bookings growth

In a typically quiet quarter, Fluence enjoyed exceptional bookings. Aside from the US$188m CES (custom engineered solution) win in Ivory Coast, it also secured a $20m contract in Egypt and a further ITEST deal. Revenue rose 20% y-o-y and the gross cash balance was $24m ($14.7m outflow). Forecasting CES deals are hard and we trim FY19 sales by 10% to reflect a more cautious view on further big wins boosting FY19 numbers, but the company still expects EBITDA breakeven during Q419 and FY20 estimates are substantively unchanged. The share price implies an FY20 P/E of 8.6x.

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Fluence Corporation

Exceptional bookings growth

Q1 results

General industrials

2 May 2019

Price

A$0.47

Market cap

A$253m

US$/A$0.702

Net cash (US$m) at end 2018

38

Shares in issue

538m

Free float

60%

Code

FLC

Primary exchange

ASX

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(12.1)

30.6

11.9

Rel (local)

(14.4)

19.8

5.6

52-week high/low

A$0.56

A$0.30

Business description

Fluence is a global supplier of water and wastewater treatment solutions. Its decentralised products provide municipal customers with ‘plug and play’ solutions that are quicker to deploy and substantially cheaper than traditional alternatives.

Next event

Q219 trading update

July 2019

Analysts

Dan Gardiner

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dario Carradori

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Graeme Moyse

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Fluence Corporation is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

In a typically quiet quarter, Fluence enjoyed exceptional bookings. Aside from the US$188m CES (custom engineered solution) win in Ivory Coast, it also secured a $20m contract in Egypt and a further ITEST deal. Revenue rose 20% y-o-y and the gross cash balance was $24m ($14.7m outflow). Forecasting CES deals are hard and we trim FY19 sales by 10% to reflect a more cautious view on further big wins boosting FY19 numbers, but the company still expects EBITDA breakeven during Q419 and FY20 estimates are substantively unchanged. The share price implies an FY20 P/E of 8.6x.

Year end

Revenue (US$m)

EBITDA* (US$m)

EPS*
(c)

EV/revenue
(x)

EV/EBITDA
(x)

P/E
(x)

12/17

33.2

(23.6)

(7.0)

4.2

N/A

N/A

12/18

101.1

(8.5)

(2.5)

1.4

N/A

N/A

12/19e

152.0

(2.3)

(0.8)

0.9

N/A

N/A

12/20e

266.5

23.0

3.8

0.5

6.1

8.6

Note: *EBITDA and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Exceptional bookings growth, backlog of $267m

Total bookings in Q1 were $223m, a company record and more than all of 2018. This largely reflected a $188m turnkey CES project to supply, treat and deliver water to Ivory Coast’s capital city (see Landmark €165m contract win). However, Fluence also secured a $20m contract through its IWSI joint venture to supply technology to an Egyptian desalination project. Total contracted backlog stood at $267m at the end of Q1. Revenue was $12.3m, down 69% q-o-q, but up 20% y-o-y.

Strategic priorities on track

Although no Smart Product Solutions (SPS) revenue figure was disclosed, Fluence confirmed it is on track to more than double revenue here in FY19 ($44m+). Aspiral sales in China continue to ramp up, with an order for 40 more units from ITEST. The company also officially launched SUBRE, a version of its MABR technology, which can be retrofitted to existing (higher volume) wastewater treatment plants. Fluence expects annual recurring revenue to be c $15m by Q120e (unchanged).

Order book and SPS underpins growth forecast

Reported revenue was $12.3m, down 69% q-o-q, but up 20% y-o-y. As with FY18, we expect FY19 growth to be strongly back-end loaded. However company commentary on order book recognition and SPS growth offers visibility on c $134m of sales (Exhibit 1). A more prudent view on recognising further CES wins in FY19 trims FY19 sales by 10% and EBITDA and y/e cash balance fall by $3.8m and $4.9m respectively (Exhibit 2). Our SPS and FY20 forecasts are unchanged.

Valuation: Growth prospects not priced in

At the end of a seasonally low quarter with large projects ramping in Q4 it is difficult to accurately gauge financial performance. Nevertheless, SPS and recurring revenue growth remains on track and the Ivory Coast win shows Fluence’s ability to secure large, complex turnkey custom solutions. We forecast over 50% organic revenue growth in both FY19 and FY20, yet the shares are rated at just 8.6x adjusted FY20 EPS. A DCF approach reflecting the growth and margins we believe Fluence is ultimately capable of suggests an A$0.75 per share valuation, c 60% above the current share price.

Analysis of FY19 growth drivers and forecast changes

As with FY18, where Q1 revenue accounted for just 10% of the annual total, we expect FY19 growth to be strongly back-end loaded. Company commentary on the timing of revenue recognition from CES contracts secured during Q1 and the order book at the full year helps explain the sources of this growth. Coupled with guidance that SPS revenue will at least double to $44m, this order book analysis provides some visibility on c $134m of sales (Exhibit 1).

Exhibit 1: Analysis of FY19 growth drivers

Indicator

$m

Orders

- Backlog @ y/e18 (Fluence has previously stated it expects nearly all the @ y/e18 backlog to be recognised in FY19)

58

- Ivory coast (total c.$188m, $20m is just the proportion just expected to be recognised in FY19)

20

- Egypt (majority of $20m deal expected to be recognised in FY19)

12

Smart product (SPS) guidance (“at least”)

44

Total (order backed + SPS forecast)

134

Implied new business

18

Edison FY19 forecast

152

Indicator

Orders

- Backlog @ y/e18 (Fluence has previously stated it expects nearly all the @ y/e18 backlog to be recognised in FY19)

- Ivory coast (total c.$188m, $20m is just the proportion just expected to be recognised in FY19)

- Egypt (majority of $20m deal expected to be recognised in FY19)

Smart product (SPS) guidance (“at least”)

Total (order backed + SPS forecast)

Implied new business

Edison FY19 forecast

$m

58

20

12

44

134

18

152

Source: Edison

Predicting the timing of new CES orders is never easy. Taking a more prudent view of further big wins boosting FY19 estimates, trims our FY19 sales by 10%. Nearly 90% of our estimate is supported by either existing orders or SPS growth – it implies just $18m of “new business” recognised in FY19. Our lower forecast still implies 50% y-o-y growth in total revenue and our SPS forecasts remain unchanged. This lowers FY19 EBITDA and our forecast cash balance by $3.8m and $4.9m respectively. Our FY20 forecasts are substantively unchanged.

Exhibit 2: Changes to estimates

$m

FY19e

FY20e

Old

New

%

Old

New

%

Revenue (US$m)

169.1

152.0

(10.1)

266.5

266.5

N/A

Adjusted EBITDA (US$m)

1.5

(2.3)

N/A

23.0

23.0

N/A

Adjusted EPS (c)

(0.2)

(0.8)

N/A

3.8

3.8

(0.5)

Net cash

19.1

14.2

(25.5)

12.8

7.9

(37.9)

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

U$m

2016

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

0.8

33.2

101.1

152.0

266.5

Cost of Sales

(2.0)

(27.2)

(66.5)

(116.4)

(201.7)

Gross Profit

(1.2)

6.0

34.6

35.5

64.8

EBITDA

 

 

(8.8)

(23.6)

(8.5)

(2.3)

23.0

Operating Profit (before amort. and except).

 

(9.1)

(24.3)

(11.0)

(3.6)

20.4

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

0.1

(1.2)

(52.7)

0.0

0.0

Share-based payments

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Reported operating profit

(9.1)

(25.4)

(63.7)

(4.9)

20.4

Net Interest

(0.0)

2.6

0.5

0.3

0.2

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(9.1)

(21.7)

(10.5)

(4.6)

20.6

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(9.1)

(22.9)

(63.2)

(4.6)

20.6

Reported tax

0.0

(0.7)

(0.4)

0.0

0.0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(9.1)

(22.4)

(10.9)

(4.6)

20.6

Profit After Tax (reported)

(9.1)

(23.6)

(63.6)

(4.6)

20.6

Minority interests

0

0

0

0

0

Discontinued operations

0

0

0

0

0

Net income (normalised)

(9.1)

(22.4)

(10.9)

(4.6)

20.6

Net income (reported)

(9.1)

(23.6)

(63.6)

(4.6)

20.6

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

214

320

440

538

538

EPS - basic normalised (c)

 

 

(4.3)

(7.0)

(2.5)

(0.8)

3.8

EPS - diluted normalised (c)

 

 

(4.3)

(7.0)

(2.5)

(0.8)

3.8

EPS - basic reported (c)

 

 

(4.2)

(7.4)

(14.5)

(0.8)

3.8

Dividend per share (c)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0

0

Revenue growth (%)

N/A

N/A

204.7

50.3

75.4

Gross Margin (%)

N/A

18.0

34.2

23.4

24.3

EBITDA Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

(1.5)

8.6

Normalised Operating Margin

N/A

N/A

N/A

(3.2)

7.7

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

3.2

72.7

43.8

45.2

46.6

Intangible Assets

2.1

60.2

5.6

5.6

5.6

Tangible Assets

1.0

7.1

14.8

16.2

17.6

Investments & other

0.1

5.5

23.4

23.4

23.4

Current Assets

 

 

24.4

131.9

97.7

174.6

182.2

Stocks

0.5

18.5

18.9

43.2

41.2

Debtors

0.7

26.7

33.5

95.4

111.2

Cash & cash equivalents

22.9

75.2

38.7

29.5

23.2

Other

0.3

11.5

6.5

6.5

6.5

Current Liabilities

 

 

(2.5)

(95.9)

(78.7)

(161.7)

(150.1)

Creditors

(1.4)

(27.8)

(47.5)

(92.6)

(82.4)

Tax and social security

0.0

(0.1)

(0.9)

(0.9)

(0.9)

Short term borrowings

0.0

(1.1)

(0.4)

(15.3)

(15.3)

Other

(1.1)

(66.9)

(30.0)

(52.9)

(51.5)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(1.0)

(5.1)

(11.7)

(11.7)

(11.7)

Long term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other long term liabilities

(1.0)

(5.1)

(11.7)

(11.7)

(11.7)

Net Assets

 

 

24.1

103.6

51.1

46.5

67.1

Minority interests

0.0

0.2

1.2

1.2

1.2

Shareholders' equity

 

 

24.1

103.8

52.3

47.7

68.3

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

(8.8)

(23.6)

(8.5)

(2.3)

23.0

Working capital

1.7

(4.8)

(44.1)

(17.4)

(24.7)

Exceptional & other

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

Tax

0.0

(0.9)

(0.2)

(0.4)

(0.4)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

(7.2)

(29.0)

(52.6)

(20.1)

(2.1)

Capex

(0.4)

(3.7)

(2.8)

(4.0)

(4.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

(1.0)

50.6

(1.8)

0.0

0.0

Net interest

0.0

0.5

2.7

(0.1)

(0.2)

Equity financing

22.9

31.3

26.2

0.0

0.0

Dividends

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

(0.2)

1.1

(2.4)

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

14.2

50.8

(30.6)

(24.2)

(6.3)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(8.5)

(22.9)

(74.0)

(38.4)

(14.2)

FX

0.2

2.1

(4.3)

0.0

0.0

Other non-cash movements

0.0

(1.8)

(0.7)

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(22.9)

(74.0)

(38.4)

(14.2)

(7.9)

Source: Fluence Corporation accounts, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Fluence Corporation and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Fluence Corporation. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

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This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

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Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Fluence Corporation and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Fluence Corporation. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 427484). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a) (11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Research: Metals & Mining

Alkane Resources — Forecast and valuation upgraded

Q319 was a strong quarter for Alkane Resources, with gold production from the stockpile at Tomingley Gold Mine above expectations. As a result, we have increased forecast gold production for FY19 to 44,000oz from 40,000oz and increased gold sold to 48,800oz from 41,500oz. We have also decreased our forecast all-in sustaining cost to A$1,059/oz Au from A$1,108/oz Au.

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