Aerial front view of a cargo tanker traveling over calm sea

Evidence of strategic success should drive value

Braemar 24 November 2022 Update
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Braemar

Evidence of strategic success should drive value

Interim results

Industrial support services

24 November 2022

Price

323p

Market cap

£105m

US$1.16/£

Net cash at 31 August 2022

£1.8m

Shares in issue

32.2m

Free float

100%

Code

BMS

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

9.6

19.1

52.7

Rel (local)

1.5

19.3

54.3

52-week high/low

340p

201p

Business description

Braemar is the second largest shipbroker in the world, providing broking services to the dry cargo, deep sea tanker, specialised tanker and sale and purchase markets. It also addresses the fast-growing areas of offshore and renewables, securities and financial markets.

Next events

Preliminary results

May 2023

Analyst

Andy Murphy

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Braemar is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

The strong interim results and robust trading in H2 so far confirm that Braemar is in a good position to capitalise on management action taken over the last two years. The disposal of non-core assets and the debt-free balance sheet leave Braemar well-positioned to drive its future growth strategy, as previously outlined. The new Natural Gas desk is one such example. The trading outlook is promising and Braemar will be able to leverage its strong balance sheet in pursuit of strategic growth. We retain our existing FY estimates and our DDM based 520p per share valuation.

Year end

Revenue
(£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

02/21

83.7

6.7

16.2

5.0

17.9

1.7

02/22

101.3

8.9

23.1

9.0

14.0

2.8

02/23e

130.6

19.2

46.3

12.0

7.0

3.7

02/24e

112.5

15.9

37.0

13.5

8.7

4.2

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Interims confirm robust trading

The underlying markets have been favourable for Braemar, which is reflected in revenue growth, as is the benefit of recent strategic changes. Total revenue in sterling terms in H1 increased 46% to £69.4m, while in US dollar terms revenue increased 36%. Operating profit was further boosted by operational gearing that saw operating profit increase 95% to £10.9m. EPS increased from 17.6p to 31.8p, from which Braemar has declared an interim dividend of 4p, in line with our expectations. Braemar ended the period with a net cash position of £1.8m having had a net debt position of £9.3m at the end of February 2022.

Strategic actions evidenced in results

Following the streamlining of the business by disposing of non-core activities, Braemar has now restructured the reporting lines into three divisions: ‘Investment Advisory’ containing Sale and Purchase (S&P) and Corporate Finance; ‘Chartering’, which contains the four ship chartering lines; and ‘Risk Advisory’, which is the old Securities business. Management believes that the outlook is encouraging too. We anticipate that Braemar will continue to seek new income streams from underserved markets. The addition of a new 10-strong Natural Gas team in October is evidence of this. This team will focus on opportunities to broker European Union (EU) gas, UK National Balancing Point (NBP) gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) as well as EU carbon allowances.

Valuation: DDM confirms 520p/share

In August we materially raised our FY23 and FY24 estimates to reflect the better-than-expected FY22 results, and these interim results confirm the positive underlying conditions and FY23 expectations, which are driven by good markets, strategic progress and the strong US dollar. For FY24, we expect underlying growth but take a cautious view on foreign exchange rates and assume a reversal to rates similar to FY22. Following the interims, we retain our existing forecasts and our dividend discount model (DDM) based valuation of 520p/share.

Refocused strategy leads to 36% underlying revenue growth

Strong underlying markets and decisive management action to streamline the business have proved successful drivers in setting Braemar on the path to consistent underlying growth. Headline revenue growth of 47% benefited from sterling weakness versus the US dollar, and at the headline level, revenue increased by 36% on a constant currency basis highlighting the progress. Operating profit nearly doubled, but grew an estimated 41% on a constant currency basis. Trading and asset disposals leave Braemar in a net cash position at the half year.

Operational gearing drives a near doubling of profit

Chartering was very strong with total revenue up 68% to £44.9m and operating profit up 177% to £6.9m. The key driver was Deep Sea Tankers that benefited from the chaos originating with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as oil flows were disrupted and there was a considerable increase in ton miles. This has led to an increase in time charter cover and to longer charter periods. The division also benefited from a limited order book and impending environmental regulation changes that are delaying new vessel decisions. Clean tanker markets, particularly in the Middle and Far East, are witnessing similar trading conditions, and Specialised tankers benefited from good market conditions and from Braemar’s growing global reach.

Also in the Chartering division, Offshore Energy Services grew 10% as demand grew for both oil and gas services, as well as from a thriving renewables market. In Dry Cargo, revenue rose 61% as declining post-COVID-19 disruption was met with a reduced cargo supply, again due to the war in Ukraine, and an increase in the customer base.

In Investment Advisory, total revenue increased 8% to £16.3m, driven by a 36% increase in S&P income from investors seeking asset plays, fleet renewals and other individual shipowner strategies. The level of incoming enquiries here has been strong. Corporate Finance income declined 45%, largely due to the timing of ‘lumpy’ income. H2 is expected to be better. Overall, Investment Advisory operating profit reduced 12% to £3.7m.

In Risk Advisory, revenue increased 48% to £8.2m and operating profit rose 53% to £1.5m as both wet and dry cargo forward freight agreements grew revenue and market share. In Dry Cargo, some quarantine restrictions have eased and prices have followed. However, the market has remained robust with high volumes. The Natural Gas team sits under Risk Advisory and its ability to broker EU carbon allowance gives Braemar a capability that most competitors do not have. Activity here will have many synergies with other desks, particularly in Chartering. This enhanced capability will enable Braemar to play a leading role helping its clients meet their forthcoming obligations under EU laws when they arrive in 2023/24.

Exhibit 1: Braemar interim headline trading results

£m

H122

H123

% chg

% chg (CER)

Revenue

Chartering

26.8

44.9

67.7%

-

Investment advisory

15.0

16.3

8.4%

-

Risk advisory

5.6

8.2

47.5%

-

Total revenue

47.4

69.4

46.5%

36.0%

Operating profit

Chartering

2.5

6.9

176.9%

-

Investment advisory

4.2

3.7

-11.5%

-

Risk advisory

1.0

1.5

52.7%

-

Total operating profit

7.7

12.1

58.1%

-

Central costs

(2.1)

(1.2)

-41.2%

-

Underlying operating profit

5.6

10.9

94.6%

41.0%

Operating margin

Chartering

9.3%

15.4%

6.1%

-

Investment advisory

27.9%

22.8%

-5.1%

-

Risk advisory

17.1%

17.7%

0.6%

-

Underlying operating margin

11.8%

15.7%

3.9%

0.4%

Source: Braemar, Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

£m

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023e

2024e

2025e

Year end 28 February

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

117.9

117.7

83.7

101.3

130.6

112.5

115.8

EBITDA

 

 

10.4

14.4

11.4

13.5

23.6

19.9

20.3

Normalised operating profit

 

 

9.1

11.0

7.7

10.1

20.1

16.4

16.8

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

(12.5)

(3.8)

(1.5)

(0.3)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.5

0.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Reported operating profit

(2.9)

7.9

6.2

9.7

20.1

16.4

16.8

Net Interest

(0.2)

(1.4)

(1.1)

(1.2)

(1.0)

(0.5)

(0.3)

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0.0

(0.3)

0.0

(0.0)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

8.9

9.4

6.7

8.9

19.2

15.9

16.5

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(3.1)

6.3

5.1

8.5

19.2

15.9

16.5

Reported tax

(1.5)

0.0

(1.6)

(1.8)

(4.2)

(4.0)

(4.1)

Profit After Tax (norm)

7.3

9.4

5.1

7.0

14.9

11.9

12.4

Profit After Tax (reported)

(4.7)

6.3

3.6

6.7

14.9

11.9

12.4

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Discontinued operations

(22.7)

(2.3)

1.0

7.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net income (normalised)

7.3

9.4

5.1

7.0

14.9

11.9

12.4

Net income (reported)

(27.4)

4.0

4.5

13.9

14.9

11.9

12.4

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

31

31

31

31

32

32

32

EPS - basic normalised (p)

 

 

23.78

30.19

16.23

23.06

46.34

36.97

38.30

EPS - diluted normalised (p)

 

 

21.79

27.28

13.43

18.79

38.17

30.46

31.57

EPS - basic reported (p)

 

 

(88.63)

12.88

14.45

45.56

46.34

36.97

38.30

Dividend (p)

5.00

5.00

5.00

9.00

12.00

13.50

14.00

Revenue growth (%)

14.4

(-0.2)

(-28.9)

21.0

29.0

(-13.9)

0.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

8.8

12.3

13.6

13.4

18.1

17.7

17.5

Normalised Operating Margin

7.7

9.4

9.2

9.9

15.4

14.6

14.5

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

91.7

114.7

106.6

99.8

97.3

94.7

92.2

Intangible Assets

86.0

86.2

86.1

80.9

81.1

81.4

81.6

Tangible Assets

2.0

11.9

9.8

7.1

4.3

1.5

(1.3)

Investments & other

3.7

16.5

10.7

11.9

11.9

11.9

11.9

Current Assets

 

 

71.9

68.3

51.7

52.8

78.2

76.1

82.9

Stocks

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Debtors

37.1

39.5

34.8

38.8

49.0

41.6

44.0

Cash & cash equivalents

24.1

28.7

16.4

14.0

29.2

34.5

38.9

Other

10.6

0.0

0.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Liabilities

 

 

92.0

78.9

51.9

42.8

59.4

52.5

54.6

Creditors

44.9

47.6

45.6

39.3

52.9

45.7

47.0

Tax and social security

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.6

4.0

3.7

3.9

Short term borrowings

35.8

25.1

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

Other

9.8

4.8

4.9

1.9

2.2

2.5

2.8

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

13.2

44.9

39.9

34.8

34.8

34.8

34.8

Long term borrowings

4.6

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

Other long term liabilities

8.6

42.2

37.3

32.0

32.0

32.0

32.0

Net Assets

 

 

58.4

59.2

66.5

75.1

81.3

83.6

85.8

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Shareholders' equity

 

 

58.4

59.2

66.5

75.1

81.3

83.6

85.8

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

(1.8)

9.7

8.8

12.0

22.6

19.4

20.0

Working capital

4.6

(0.4)

4.1

5.2

3.7

0.4

(0.8)

Exceptional & other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.0

Tax

(1.1)

1.2

(0.8)

(2.2)

(1.8)

(4.2)

(4.0)

Other

6.1

1.4

1.8

6.2

0.6

0.2

(0.0)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

7.8

11.8

13.9

21.3

25.1

15.8

16.2

Capex

(2.4)

(1.7)

(1.1)

(1.2)

(1.3)

(1.3)

(1.3)

Acquisitions/disposals

(1.7)

(6.3)

3.7

(8.1)

1.3

1.3

1.3

Net interest

(0.9)

(1.5)

(1.2)

(0.8)

(1.0)

(0.5)

(0.3)

Equity financing

23.0

3.9

(28.9)

(2.5)

(2.5)

(2.5)

(2.5)

Dividends

(4.6)

(4.6)

0.6

(2.1)

(2.9)

(3.9)

(4.4)

Other

(2.4)

0.0

(0.9)

(7.0)

(3.5)

(3.5)

(3.5)

Net Cash Flow

18.7

1.6

(13.9)

(0.5)

15.2

5.3

5.4

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

2.4

11.7

20.0

8.8

9.3

(5.9)

(11.2)

FX

(1.1)

(0.8)

(0.7)

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other non-cash movements

(26.9)

(9.0)

25.8

(0.3)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

11.7

20.0

8.8

9.3

(5.9)

(11.2)

(16.6)

Source: Braemar, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Braemar and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Braemar. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

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Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

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Level 4, Office 1205

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NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Braemar and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Braemar. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2022 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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Germany

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United Kingdom

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United States of America

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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