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Encouraging H1, but all eyes on H2

Warpaint London 20 September 2019 Quickview
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Warpaint London

Encouraging H1, but all eyes on H2

Consumer

QuickView

20 September 2019

Price

52.0p

Market cap

£40m

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Share details

Code

W7L

Listing

AIM

Shares in issue

76.7m

Business description

Warpaint London is a UK-based company engaged in the colour cosmetics business, both domestically and overseas. It comprises two divisions: close-out and own-brand. The latter consists of a selection of brands, with the key focus on the company’s flagship brand, W7.

Bull

Fast-growing industry with broad customer base.

Strong trade relationships through close-out history and brand reputation with W7.

Positioned in an industry that has demonstrated resilience to economic cycles.

Bear

Reliance on key suppliers and significant customers.

Business is H2-skewed, and retail environment remains tough.

Dependence on key personnel, as a result of a relatively small senior management team.

Analysts

Sara Welford

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Russell Pointon

+44 (0)20 3077 5257

Warpaint London's strategy is to provide customers with access to an extensive range of high-quality and affordable cosmetics. Its focus has been to develop its flagship brand, W7, while capitalising on the growth potential of e-commerce and international expansion. The UK retail environment remains challenging; while Warpaint continues to grow well in the more successful retailers, growth is being hampered by a significant tail of customers ceasing to trade. As ever, results are heavily skewed towards H2: the order book is currently looking solid, but the UK consumer outlook is subdued, and the next few weeks are likely to shape the financial performance for the whole year.

Strategy for growth maintained

H1 delivered sales growth of 2.9% to £18.9m and improved gross margins in all areas except the lower-margin US. Guidance was maintained as the company continues its strategy of business integration and international growth. Management has been increasing its PR and marketing budget, and has increased its stocks in order to support growth. Meanwhile, action to reduce the cost base is aimed at bringing US margins to a level similar to those of the UK. Retra, the gifting business acquired in November 2017, reached EBITDA break-even in H119 (previously loss-making), helped by a reduction in costs, better product development and an improved Christmas order book. End-June cash was £3.7m.

Further expansion

Warpaint is building internationally recognised brands, starting with its flagship W7 brand. By enhancing distribution and marketing platforms to incorporate social media and e-commerce, its offering has become more widely available to an international audience. Management is set to continue growing the business, both domestically and internationally. Expansion in the US and China continues to provide strong growth. In its domestic UK market, the subdued consumer outlook is causing both challenges and opportunities. While Warpaint’s smaller customers are coming under pressure, the large retail operators are more interested in Warpaint’s value offering as they seek to compete more effectively with the discounters.

Valuation

Warpaint trades at a substantial discount to the international cosmetics sector. This is warranted by its smaller scale, value proposition, less-recognised brands and own-label offering. We believe the discount could narrow, contingent on continued successful delivery of management guidance, hence validating the strategy. We note current consensus is higher than management guidance.

Consensus estimates

Year
end

Revenue
(£m)

PBT
(£m)

EPS
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/18

48.5

8.2

9.1

4.4

5.7

8.5

12/19e

51.4

7.5

8.6

5.0

6.1

9.6

12/20e

54.8

8.8

10.0

5.5

5.2

10.6

12/21e

58.6

10.2

11.4

6.1

4.6

11.7

Source: Company data, Refinitiv.

EDISON QUICKVIEWS ARE NORMALLY ONE OFF PUBLICATIONS WITH NO COMMITMENT TO WRITING ANY FOLLOW UP. QUICKVIEW NOTES USE CONSENSUS EARNINGS ESTIMATES.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

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1,185 Avenue of the Americas

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United States of America

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Level 4, Office 1205

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NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been prepared and issued by Edison. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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