EBITDA milestone achieved, Hull build delay

Accsys Technologies 23 April 2019 Update
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Accsys Technologies

EBITDA milestone achieved, Hull build delay

FY19 year end

General industrials

23 April 2019

Price

114.5p

Market cap

£135m

€1.15/£

Net debt (€m) at end September 2018

34.2

Shares in issue

117.9m

Free float

90.6%

Code

AXS

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

Euronext Amsterdam

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

1.8

(3.6)

52.9

Rel (local)

(1.3)

(11.4)

49.0

52-week high/low

123.0p

75.3p

Business description

Accsys Technologies is a chemical technology company focused on the development and commercialisation of a range of transformational technologies based on the acetylation of solid wood and wood elements for use as high performance, environmentally sustainable construction materials.

Next event

FY19 results

June – date tbc

Analyst

Toby Thorrington

+44 (0)20 3077 5721

Accsys Technologies is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

FY19 performance at the Arnhem Accoya facility has been robust with successful delivery of higher volumes from raised capacity. Construction delays at the new Hull Tricoya facility outside Accsys’s control are a near-term frustration and dampen EBITDA progression over our forecast horizon. That said, achieving a positive group EBITDA outturn in FY19 is a significant milestone. The current valuation is underpinned by Arnhem.

Year end

Revenue (€m)

EBITDA*
(€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(€)

P/E
(x)

EV/EBITDA
(x)

03/17

56.5

(1.5)

(4.5)

(0.05)

N/A

N/A

03/18

60.9

(3.5)

(8.8)

(0.07)

N/A

N/A

03/19e

72.4

2.0

(6.0)

(0.04)

N/A

90.6

03/20e

87.5

4.7

(4.0)

(0.04)

N/A

41.7

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Arnhem achieving higher throughput rates

Selling 49,500m3 of Accoya volumes in FY19 infers that H2 production exceeded 28,000m3. The average monthly run rate then was not far short of the 5,000m3 required to reach the stated 60,000m3 pa capacity level. This trading performance has moved the group into an EBITDA positive position overall, consistent with our FY19 estimates. Although we have raised our Arnhem volume assumptions beyond FY19 to reflect this run rate, a higher Tricoya mix and slightly lower Tricoya volume overall (see below) cause us to moderate the rate of EBITDA increase for the next two years. At the PBT level, the impact is negligible in FY20 and now generates a small loss in FY21 (where we had a small profit previously). We remain encouraged by the supportive demand indicators following capacity expansion.

Six-month push back to Tricoya plant commissioning

The expected commissioning of the new Hull Tricoya facility and its associated revenue generation has been pushed back around six months into Q121 owing to the need for reinforcement work previously unforeseen by the main contractor. While disappointing, it is understood that there are no process or performance implications for the plant once operational. With capacity management, we believe that Arnhem is be able to substantially cover Tricoya volume requirements over this time, albeit at a lower gross contribution margin versus Accoya solid wood sales.

Valuation: Accoya benchmark, Tricoya upside

The company’s share price broke up through 100p in November, remaining above this level subsequently and is currently in the middle of its 2019 ytd trading range of 104–123p. Notwithstanding the near-term newsflow, our last valuation comments remain valid; rolling forward the 10-year time horizon by one year, the current share price is consistent with our DCF model for Arnhem/Accoya with an assumption of c 6% inflation (in prices and opex). In other words, the market is currently attributing no value to the Hull/Tricoya activities, which clearly provide upside potential. With Hull volume now expected to ramp up in FY21, Accsys is valued at 1.8x revenue and 19.3x EV/EBITDA in that year on our estimates.

Exhibit 1: Financial summary

€m

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

2021e

Year end 31 March

UK GAAP

UK GAAP

UK GAAP

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Revenue

 

 

15.002

18.822

33.512

46.077

52.769

56.529

60.911

72.378

87.529

109.972

Cost of Sales

 

 

(15.050)

(15.474)

(25.753)

(33.842)

(34.597)

(42.175)

(47.270)

(52.765)

(63.844)

(77.468)

Gross Profit

 

 

(0.048)

3.348

7.759

12.235

18.172

14.354

13.641

19.613

23.685

32.504

EBITDA

 

 

(10.386)

(7.944)

(4.111)

(1.275)

2.384

(1.484)

(3.500)

1.998

4.708

10.366

Operating Profit (before GW and except.)

(12.545)

(10.200)

(6.488)

(3.750)

(0.288)

(4.197)

(6.577)

(2.616)

(0.127)

2.331

Intangible Amortisation

 

 

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

Exceptionals

 

 

(2.281)

0.000

(0.726)

(2.670)

0.000

0.033

(1.650)

0.000

0.000

0.000

Other

 

 

0.000

(0.430)

(0.905)

(1.098)

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

Operating Profit

 

 

(14.826)

(10.630)

(8.119)

(7.518)

(0.288)

(4.164)

(8.227)

(2.616)

(0.127)

2.331

Net Interest

 

 

(0.086)

(0.038)

(0.071)

(0.135)

(0.178)

(0.300)

(2.174)

(3.400)

(3.900)

(4.700)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(12.631)

(10.238)

(6.559)

(3.885)

(0.466)

(4.497)

(8.751)

(6.016)

(4.027)

(2.369)

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(14.912)

(10.668)

(8.190)

(7.653)

(0.466)

(4.463)

(10.401)

(6.016)

(4.027)

(2.369)

Tax

 

 

0.536

(0.355)

(0.699)

(0.607)

(0.402)

(0.666)

0.251

0.195

(1.509)

(1.704)

Profit After Tax (norm)

 

 

(12.095)

(11.023)

(8.163)

(5.590)

(0.868)

(5.163)

(8.500)

(5.821)

(5.536)

(4.072)

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(14.376)

(11.023)

(8.889)

(8.260)

(0.868)

(5.129)

(10.150)

(5.821)

(5.536)

(4.072)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4.990

 

 

 

 

Average number of shares outstanding (m)

 

80.7

83.9

87.5

88.5

89.6

90.4

111.2

116.3

117.9

117.9

EPS - normalised (€)

 

 

(0.15)

(0.13)

(0.09)

(0.06)

(0.01)

(0.05)

(0.07)

(0.04)

(0.04)

(0.03)

EPS - FRS 3 (€)

 

 

(0.18)

(0.13)

(0.10)

(0.09)

(0.01)

(0.05)

(0.08)

(0.04)

(0.04)

(0.03)

Dividend per share (€)

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gross Margin (%)

 

 

-0.32

17.8

23.2

26.6

34.4

25.4

22.4

27.1

27.1

29.6

EBITDA Margin (%)

 

 

-69.2

-42.2

-12.3

-2.8

4.5

-2.6

-5.7

2.8

5.4

9.4

Operating margin (before GW and except.) (%)

-83.6

-54.2

-19.4

-8.1

-0.5

-7.4

-10.8

-3.6

-0.1

2.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BALANCE SHEET

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fixed Assets

 

 

34.715

31.425

29.413

29.562

31.252

32.520

71.488

111.416

120.499

121.882

Intangible Assets

 

 

7.579

8.226

8.333

10.014

10.980

10.839

10.657

10.436

10.219

10.002

Tangible Assets

 

 

25.614

22.271

20.740

19.548

20.272

21.681

60.831

100.980

110.280

111.880

Investments

 

 

1.522

0.928

0.340

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

Current Assets

 

 

32.387

29.638

26.161

24.066

22.590

61.268

63.505

40.714

39.096

37.363

Stocks

 

 

3.120

4.860

6.053

7.894

8.345

11.796

13.125

14.651

13.727

12.656

Debtors

 

 

3.000

3.439

4.091

3.912

4.967

7.402

9.178

10.432

13.588

17.926

Cash

 

 

24.574

20.467

15.185

10.786

8.186

41.173

39.698

12.003

7.003

2.003

Current Liabilities

 

 

(3.649)

(3.621)

(5.821)

(10.701)

(9.842)

(14.599)

(21.414)

(27.214)

(30.980)

(34.813)

Creditors

 

 

(3.385)

(3.357)

(5.557)

(10.437)

(9.488)

(14.144)

(18.029)

(20.521)

(24.287)

(28.120)

Short term borrowings

 

 

(0.264)

(0.264)

(0.264)

(0.264)

(0.354)

(0.455)

(3.385)

(6.693)

(6.693)

(6.693)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(1.960)

(1.924)

(1.871)

(1.799)

(1.947)

(22.718)

(40.084)

(51.313)

(60.548)

(60.438)

Long term borrowings

 

 

(1.960)

(1.924)

(1.871)

(1.799)

(1.947)

(22.718)

(40.084)

(51.313)

(60.548)

(60.438)

Other long term liabilities

 

 

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

Net Assets

 

 

61.493

55.518

47.882

41.128

42.053

56.471

73.495

73.603

68.067

63.994

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CASH FLOW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(3.717)

(8.938)

(3.257)

(3.873)

0.452

(1.304)

(1.756)

0.746

5.471

10.710

Net Interest

 

 

(0.019)

(0.038)

(0.102)

(0.138)

(0.186)

(0.248)

(0.671)

(3.200)

(4.300)

(4.500)

Tax

 

 

0.000

0.795

0.344

0.263

0.229

(0.745)

(2.013)

0.815

(1.509)

(1.704)

Capex

 

 

0.888

0.501

(1.054)

(1.108)

(4.052)

(2.608)

(29.895)

(44.952)

(13.897)

(9.397)

Acquisitions/disposals

 

 

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.956

18.317

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

Financing

 

 

(0.178)

3.597

(1.130)

0.461

0.124

0.050

26.728

5.718

0.000

0.000

Dividends

 

 

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

Net Cash Flow

 

 

(3.026)

(4.083)

(5.199)

(4.395)

(2.477)

13.462

(7.607)

(40.873)

(14.235)

(4.890)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(27.596)

(22.350)

(18.279)

(13.050)

(8.723)

(5.885)

(18.000)

3.771

46.003

60.238

HP finance leases initiated 

 

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

Other

 

 

(2.220)

0.012

(0.030)

0.068

(0.361)

(1.347)

(14.164)

(1.359)

(0.000)

(0.000)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(22.350)

(18.279)

(13.050)

(8.723)

(5.885)

(18.000)

3.771

46.003

60.238

65.128

Source: Accsys Technologies accounts, Edison Investment Research

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Accsys Technologies and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Accsys Technologies. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

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United Kingdom

Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a) (11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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Germany

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United Kingdom

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United States of America

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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