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Dividends to resume after repaying COVID grants

Marshall Motor Holdings 20 May 2021 Update
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Marshall Motor Holdings

Dividends to resume after repaying COVID grants

AGM trading update

Automotive retailers

20 May 2021

Price

172p

Market cap

£135m

Adjusted net cash (£m) at 31 December 2020 (excluding £99.3m lease liabilities)

28.8

Shares in issue

78.2m

Free float

35%

Code

MMH

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(1.7)

19.0

66.7

Rel (local)

(1.0)

13.1

38.8

52-week high/low

178p

104p

Business description

Marshall Motor Holdings is the seventh largest UK motor retailer, operating 113 franchises spread across 22 brands in 28 counties. It is one of six UK dealership groups that represent each of the top five volume and premium brands. The group has a strong presence in eastern and southern England.

Next events

H121 results

10 August 2021

Analyst

Andy Chambers

+44 (0)20 3681 2525

Marshall Motor Holdings is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

The AGM trading statement indicates trading in the first four months of FY21 has remained strong. After repaying all £4m of the FY21 government support, management expect FY21 underlying PBT to be not less than the £22.1m pre-pandemic of FY19. We upgrade FY21 and FY22 EPS by 15% and 7% respectively to reflect the strong recovery. The balance sheet remains well positioned to support growth investment and selective M&A. The company intends to resume dividend payments at H121 results.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/19

2,276

22.1

22.9

2.85

7.5

1.7

12/20

2,154

20.9

21.1

0.00

8.2

N/A

12/21e

2,297

22.2

22.3

6.00

7.7

3.5

12/22e

2,368

22.8

22.9

6.60

7.5

3.8

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items.

Continuing to outperform vehicle markets

Marshall Motor Holdings (MMH) continued to outperform both new and used car markets in volume terms in the first four months of 2021. New car like-for-like volumes increased 20.4% (actual +19.0%, market +16.2%) and like-for-like used car unit volumes rose 42.0% (actual +40.5%). The high margin aftersales revenues also made strong progress, rising 22.1% on like-for-like basis (actual +19.0%). The timing of lockdowns in both years distorts the comparison. Used market data for the first four months has yet to be released, but in Q121 like-for-like volumes were down 1.7% (actual -2.8%) compared to a market decline of 8.9%. The implication is a strong uplift in April as showrooms reopened and compared to the most depressed month in 2020.

Challenges remain but markets appear robust

Overall revenues in the first four months of the year are up 32.3% (like-for-like 33.3.%). Given the extremely weak trading in the Q220 lockdown, we expect to see a stronger performance for H121 overall. We expect the unit car volume improvements to moderate as H221 progresses against very strong H220 comparisons and aftersales service revenues return to tracking car sales. With year-to-date trading and cashflow exceeding management expectations, MMH is voluntarily repaying c £4.0m of government support received in FY21 and is absorbing the cost headwinds as operations return to normal. Nevertheless, the strong used car market has increased management expectations for FY21 to be at least £22.1m at the underlying PBT level.

Valuation: Dividend resumption should be supportive

The stability of EPS and cash development despite the pandemic indicates management has successfully navigated the extremely difficult period, albeit with significant support in FY20. In the new normal trading environment, we believe the multiple contraction that normally occurs as markets recover should be less marked and the traditional sector discount to general retailers should diminish. With dividends to be resumed, yield should also be an additional support for investors.

Outperforming markets as lockdown ends

Unit volume growth in the first four months of the year have been positive, although due to the timing of lockdowns in both years the comparison is distorted. New car like-for-like volumes increased 20.4% (actual +19.0%, market +16.2%) and like-for-like used car unit volumes rose 42.0% (actual +40.5%). A strong outperformance in retail units sold of 11.1% more than offset a 1.3% underperformance in fleet unit sales as MMH continues to be more selective in its opportunities. Used car market data for the first four months has yet to be released but in Q121 like-for-like volumes were down just 1.7% compared to a market decline of 8.9%.

The start to the period in FY21 was more constrained as showrooms were shut down from 5 January 2021 until 12 April 2021. In 2020 a much weaker end to the period resulted from the first lockdown from late March to early June as operations were almost entirely closed down. The major difference was the availability of click-and-collect retail operations in FY21, which mitigated some of the effect of the showroom closures and was enabled by continued investment and focus on the online retailing strategy. In addition, more normal trading of the service activity resumed for the aftersales operations. Overall, MMH continued to outperform both new and used car markets in volume terms.

Exhibit 1: MMH outperformance in first four months of the year

4m to April 21 vs 4m April 20

SMMT registrations

MMH LFL

Variance to SMMT

MMH Total

New retail units

8.4%

19.5%

11.1%

18.2%

New fleet units

23.2%

21.8%

(1.3%)

20.4%

Total new units

16.2%

20.4%

4.1%

19.0%

Used units

42.0%

40.5%

Aftersales revenue

22.1%

19.0%

Total revenue

33.3%

32.3%

Source: MMH and SMMT data

The latest available comparison data for used car markets is for Q121.

Exhibit 2: Latest used car market data

Q121 vs Q120

SMMT registrations

MMH LFL

Variance to SMMT

MMH Total

Used units

(8.9%)

(1.7%)

7.2%

(2.8%)

Source: MMH and SMMT data

Earnings revisions

Overall revenues were up by a third on a like-for-like basis in the first four months of the year. Supply chain issues continue to affect new car supply, which is having a positive effect on used car demand, prices and margins. Aftersales should recover in line with new car demand. Q221 comparisons are against the very depressed market position in Q220 and we expect substantial increases in volumes, revenues and profit contribution across the board. However, we feel the improvements are likely to mitigate in H221 as the release of pent-up demand in H220 led to exceptionally high results.

Operating costs are distorted by furlough and non-essential retail government support, as well as business rate relief.

Due to year-to-date trading and cashflow exceeding management’s expectations, MMH is voluntarily repaying c £4.0m of government support received in FY21. However, that represents a net neutral cost impact in the current year and, as workers return from furlough, costs will increase as government support only covered 80% of salaries. The ending of rates relief later this year becomes a significant cost headwind which continues into FY22.

Nevertheless, the strong used car market has increased management’s expectations for FY21 of at least £22.1m at the underlying PBT level, the pre-pandemic result from FY19. We now estimate slightly higher revenues in both FY21 and FY22 driven by the used car segment, and our EPS increase by 15% and 7% respectively. The higher profitability and continued strong working capital control also drive an improvement in cash flow despite some unwind of working capital as exceptionally high levels of stock funding return to normal.

Exhibit 3: MMH earnings estimates revisions

Year to December (£m)

2021e 

2022e 

 

Prior

New

% change

Prior

New

% change

New Car

1,036.0

1,032.6

-0.3%

1,086.3

1,084.2

-0.2%

Used Car

1,019.7

1,053.7

3.3%

1,040.1

1,064.2

2.3%

Aftersales

256.2

256.2

0.0%

266.5

266.5

0.0%

Intra group

-45.9

-45.9

0.0%

-46.5

-46.5

0.0%

Group revenues

2,266.0

2,296.5

1.3%

2,346.3

2,368.4

0.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

EBITDA

50.1

52.2

4.1%

52.5

52.8

0.5%

Underlying EBITA

30.0

32.0

6.4%

32.3

32.5

0.6%

Underlying PBT

19.3

22.2

15.3%

21.2

22.8

7.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

EPS - underlying continuing (p)

19.3

22.3

15.3%

21.3

22.9

7.4%

DPS (p)

6.0

6.0

0.0%

6.6

6.6

0.0%

Adjusted net debt / (cash), excluding lease liabilities

(16.5)

(19.3)

17.1%

(16.0)

(19.2)

19.7%

Source: Edison Investment Research estimates

Exhibit 4: Financial summary

£m

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

2,186.9

2,276.1

2,154.4

2,296.5

2,368.4

Cost of Sales

(1,933.6)

(2,015.3)

(1,916.2)

(2,043.9)

(2,103.1)

Gross Profit

253.2

260.8

238.2

252.6

265.3

EBITDA

 

 

52.3

52.0

53.4

52.2

52.8

Operating Profit (before amort. and except).

 

 

34.3

32.0

31.1

32.0

32.5

Intangible Amortisation

(0.3)

(0.4)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.3)

Exceptionals

(6.7)

(2.4)

(0.6)

0.0

0.0

Other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Operating Profit

27.3

29.2

30.3

31.7

32.2

Net Interest

(9.6)

(9.9)

(10.2)

(9.8)

(9.7)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

24.7

22.1

20.9

22.2

22.8

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

17.7

19.2

20.1

22.0

22.5

Tax

(4.7)

(4.1)

(6.4)

(4.8)

(4.9)

Profit After Tax (norm)

20.5

17.9

16.5

17.4

17.9

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

13.1

15.2

13.7

17.2

17.6

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

77.7

78.2

78.2

78.2

78.2

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

26.3

22.9

21.1

22.3

22.9

EPS - normalised and fully diluted (p)

 

 

25.5

22.6

20.6

21.8

22.3

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

16.8

19.4

17.5

22.0

22.5

Dividend per share (p)

8.54

2.85

0.00

6.00

6.60

Gross Margin (%)

11.6

11.5

11.1

11.0

11.2

EBITDA Margin (%)

2.4

2.3

2.5

2.3

2.2

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

262.9

390.2

378.2

383.4

388.2

Intangible Assets

112.2

119.3

119.5

119.7

119.8

Tangible Assets

150.7

162.9

159.8

164.9

169.6

Right of use asset

108.0

98.8

98.8

98.8

Investments

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Current Assets

 

 

466.3

560.5

464.8

531.2

560.9

Stocks

384.0

470.7

362.9

424.9

450.0

Debtors

71.9

79.2

59.6

73.5

75.8

Cash

1.2

0.1

33.8

23.8

25.8

Other

9.2

10.6

8.5

9.0

9.2

Current Liabilities

 

 

(502.2)

(608.4)

(494.1)

(552.8)

(572.4)

Creditors

(501.5)

(582.8)

(493.4)

(552.8)

(572.4)

Short term borrowings

(0.6)

(25.6)

(0.6)

0.0

0.0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(30.8)

(139.9)

(133.0)

(133.1)

(135.2)

Long term borrowings

(5.7)

(5.0)

(4.4)

(4.5)

(6.7)

Lease Liabilities

0.0

(108.1)

(99.3)

(99.3)

(99.3)

Other long term liabilities

(25.2)

(26.8)

(29.3)

(29.2)

(29.2)

Net Assets

 

 

196.3

202.3

215.9

228.7

241.4

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

39.2

43.6

87.5

24.1

35.2

Net Interest

(2.1)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.7)

(0.5)

Tax

(4.7)

(4.1)

(6.4)

(4.8)

(4.9)

Capex

(23.4)

(19.5)

(11.7)

(16.5)

(16.1)

Acquisitions/disposals

1.6

(27.4)

(0.6)

0.0

0.0

Financing

(1.0)

(0.9)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Dividends

(5.0)

(7.2)

0.0

(1.6)

(4.8)

Other

(7.6)

(9.0)

(8.4)

(9.0)

(9.0)

Net Cash Flow

(2.9)

(25.4)

59.4

(9.5)

(0.1)

Opening adjusted net debt/(cash)

 

 

2.2

5.1

30.6

(28.8)

(19.3)

HP finance leases initiated

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing adjusted net debt/(cash)

 

 

5.1

30.6

(28.8)

(19.3)

(19.2)

Net financial liabilities (including lease liabilities)

138.6

71.6

80.0

80.2

Source: Company reports, Edison Investment Research estimates


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Marshall Motor Holdings and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Marshall Motor Holdings. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Marshall Motor Holdings and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Marshall Motor Holdings. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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