Cost savings underpin PBT turnaround

SLI Systems 11 September 2018 Update
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SLI Systems

Cost savings underpin PBT turnaround

FY18 results

Software & comp services

11 September 2018

Price

NZ$0.32

Market cap

NZ$20m

Net cash (NZ$m) at 30 June 2018

9.1

Shares in issue

62.3m

Free float

40%

Code

SLI

Primary exchange

NZX

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

4.9

4.9

60.0

Rel (local)

5.0

4.3

43.9

52-week high/low

NZ$0.4

NZ$0.2

Business description

SLI Systems’ core products are e-commerce site search and navigation tools that learn from customer behaviours to improve the relevance of search results and therefore increase sales conversion. Customers pay a monthly subscription based on the number of queries per month.

Next event

Interim results

February 2019

Analysts

Alasdair Young

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)20 3077 5729

SLI Systems is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

SLI’s results reflect the business’s transitional status. Substantial savings were made to sales and marketing expenditure, which underpinned the company’s first year of profitability. We continue to forecast margin compression in the near term as the business begins its transition to an indirect sales model. Successful implementation of this shift remains the critical determinant of the business’s prospects.

Year
end

Revenue (NZ$m)

EBITDA
(NZ$m)

PBT*
(NZ$m)

EPS*
(c)

EV/sales
(x)

P/E
(x)

06/17

32.0

(0.5)

(0.8)

(1.8)

0.4

N/A

06/18

34.4

4.5

4.2

6.7

0.4

4.8

06/19e

34.2

2.6

2.3

3.2

0.4

9.9

06/20e

34.8

1.1

0.8

1.2

0.4

27.0

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

FY18 results: First full year of profit

Boosted by a stronger US$, FY18 revenues rose 7% y-o-y to NZ$34.4m, while the business continued the process started at the interims of aggressively cutting operating costs, which saw a 10% y-o-y reduction to NZ$30.3m. The result was a swing in reported PBT from a NZ$1.6m loss in FY17 to a NZ$4.1m gain in FY18, the first full year of profit since the company’s listing in 2013. Reassuringly, the improved income statement translated into a NZ$3.5m cash boost to the balance sheet, leaving the business with NZ$9.1m net cash at period end.

Forecasts: Margin erosion to lower profits

In addition to introducing 2020 forecasts, we have left our FY19e revenues broadly unchanged. However, we have reduced our operating costs to reflect the cost reduction programme over FY18, although we note that we still predict increases to opex over FY19e and FY20e as the business undergoes its shift to an indirect sales model. As a result, our FY19e EBIT has increased 32% to NZ$2.2m, before falling to NZ$0.8m in 2020e.

Valuation: Tied to business model transition

SLI’s prospects are now tied to the successful execution of the transition to the self-service API (application programme interface) sales model. While the company expects to launch the new products this fiscal year, the continued lack of visibility over growth and cost assumptions is weighing heavily on the shares. While at an acute discount to peers on FY19e figures, the anticipated margin erosion means that the (EV/EBITDA and P/E) discounts dissipate when looking further out. Nevertheless, a 0.4x EV/Sales multiple for FY19e and FY20e means that successful execution of the imminent transition could unlock significant value.

Review of FY18 results and changes to forecasts

SLI reported its first full year of profitability since its listing on the NZX in 2013. Revenue growth of 7% (vs our forecasts of 5%) was flattered by favourable FX swings, as annualised recurring revenues at constant currency were flat year-on-year. This was achieved despite the 10% reduction in operating expenses and employee entitlements, which meant that total opex came in more than NZ$1.1m (3.5%) lower than our expectations. This reduction underpinned a y-o-y swing of NZ$5.7m at the PBT line to a NZ$4.1m profit for the period.

Exhibit 1: Summary of FY18 results and changes to forecasts

NZ$000s

2018

2019

2020

Estimate

Actual

Variance

Old

New

Variance

New

Annualised recurring revenue (ARR)

33,270

33,581

0.9%

34,933

33,615

-3.8%

34,623

Revenue

33,479

34,417

2.8%

34,515

34,181

-1.0%

34,849

Gross profit

25,607

26,369

3.0%

26,526

26,309

-0.8%

26,947

% gross profit margin

76%

77%

0.2%

77%

77%

0%

77%

EBITDA

2,662

4,456

67.4%

2,042

2,583

26.5%

1,089

Operating profit (before amort.and except.)

2,396

4,185

74.6%

1,692

2,233

32.0%

754

Operating profit margin (%)

7%

12.16%

69.9%

5%

6.53%

33.3%

2.16%

EPS – IFRS (c)

2.82

6.53

131.7%

1.68

2.53

50.1%

0.49

Closing net debt/(cash)

(7,119)

(9,146)

28.5%

(7,585)

(10,436)

37.6%

(11,257)

Source: SLI Systems accounts, Edison investment Research

Of the NZ$3.3m opex reductions, the most significant savings were made in the sales (NZ$2.6m, 45% reduction) and marketing (NZ$1.8m, 37% reduction) activities. As previously highlighted, these cost reductions reflect the scaling back of all cost categories not directly linked to new product development.

Due to the flat constant currency revenues and the significant reduction in the sales and marketing teams (which we expect to suppress new business wins in the short term), we have moderated our expectations for revenue growth in FY19e. However, due to the savings in opex in FY18, our normalised operating profit forecast for FY19 has increased by NZ$0.5m to NZ$2.2m. We note that we expect operating margins to become compressed in the near term (5.5pp reduction in FY19e) as costs begin to rise again due to the roll-out of the new API product. Longer term (not shown), successful implementation of the business model transition should enable the re-expansion of margins. In the absence of guidance from management, we see the operating costs line as the key sensitivity to our forecasts. Nevertheless, we expect the company to remain cash-generative through the transitional period.

Cash flow and balance sheet

Driven by the revenue growth and cost reduction programme, SLI managed to increase cash receipts from customers by 4% to NZ$33m, while cash outflows to suppliers and employees declined 5% to NZ$31.2m. These improvements underpinned a net cash inflow of NZ$3.5m (FY17: NZ$1.2m outflow), leaving the company with a strengthened net cash position of NZ$9.1m. This swing meant that management was able to reiterate its commitment to the avoidance of further equity funding.

Operational update: API launch due this fiscal year

As flagged at the interims and the trading update, management now expects the first products under the new business strategy to be launched in FY19, having been pushed back from H218. While the results provided little new information on the work that remains to be completed before the roll-out of the self-service tools can commence, we understand that this is likely to be a two-phase process, with a preliminary release this calendar year and a full-scale launch in the first half of CY19. We maintain our view that successful delivery of these self-service tools (and the development of channel partners) is crucial to the longer-term prospects for the business.

Valuation: Lack of visibility weighing down shares

SLI’s depressed valuation reflects the transitional state of the business, in our view. At 0.4x FY19e and FY20e sales, the shares are at a significant discount to the immediate peer group, which typically trade at over 2x sales. This multiple has not changed significantly over the past year, despite the markedly improved cash position (and forecast profitability) of the business. The discount persists even at more traditional metrics such as EV/EBITDA and P/E, where SLI trades at a more than 50% discount to the peer group on an FY19e basis. However, the forecast deterioration in financial performance means that this discount does not persist into FY20e.

Exhibit 2: Peer multiples

Name

Reporting currency

Current price

Market cap (m)

EV/Sales 1FY (x)

EV/Sales 2FY (x)

EV/EBITDA 1FY (x)

EV/EBITDA 2FY (x)

PE 1FY (x)

PE 2FY (x)

SLI SYSTEMS LTD

NZD

0.32

19.9

0.4

0.4

5.2

12.4

9.9

27.0

ATTRAQT GROUP LTD

GBP

33.5

35.6

2.1

1.8

103.0

26.6

167.5

47.9

DOTDIGITAL GROUP PLC

GBP

97

288.4

6.3

4.8

21.7

16.9

32.3

24.9

SDL PLC

GBP

466

422.4

1.2

1.1

12.8

10.3

20.6

17.1

WEB.COM GROUP INC

USD

28

1,404

2.7

2.6

10.7

10.2

10.2

8.6

NASSTAR PLC

GBP

12

67.5

2.5

2.3

10.2

9.4

19.6

19.6

Average

3.2

2.7

13.9

11.7

20.7

17.5

Source: Bloomberg, Edison Investment Research. Priced on 10 September 2018. Note: Average multiples exclude outlier Attraqt.

The lack of top-line growth (excluding the currency effects in FY18), the forecast margin erosion, and the lack of visibility as to the progress of the shift in business model are the likely factors weighing down the share price. We also note the high volatility of recent financial performance and the fact that the cost reductions seen over FY18 will not be a sustainable way to expand the business and improve shareholder returns.

Nevertheless, operating performance has materially improved over the past year and the balance sheet (and forecasts) has been significantly strengthened over this time. These developments have had minimal impact on the share price, which has remained relatively flat over the year.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

NZ$'000s

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

30-June

NZ GAAP

NZ GAAP

NZ GAAP

NZ GAAP

NZ GAAP

NZ GAAP

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

28,592

35,652

32,035

34,417

34,181

34,849

Delivery costs

(7,211)

(7,958)

(7,571)

(8,048)

(7,872)

(7,902)

Gross Profit

21,381

27,694

24,464

26,369

26,309

26,947

EBITDA

 

 

(6,684)

1,136

(473)

4,456

2,583

1,089

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

(7,198)

687

(833)

4,185

2,233

754

Intangible Amortisation

0

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other/SBP

(526)

(888)

(763)

(97)

(430)

(430)

Operating Profit

(7,724)

(201)

(1,596)

4,088

1,803

324

Net Interest

174

39

27

18

28

28

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(7,024)

726

(806)

4,203

2,262

782

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(7,550)

(162)

(1,569)

4,106

1,832

352

Tax

190

(77)

(284)

(84)

(275)

(53)

Profit After Tax (norm)

(6,834)

649

(1,090)

4,119

1,987

729

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(7,360)

(239)

(1,853)

4,022

1,557

299

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

61.6

61.6

61.6

61.6

61.6

61.6

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

(11.1)

1.1

(1.8)

6.7

3.2

1.2

EPS - (IFRS) (c)

 

 

(11.9)

(0.4)

(3.0)

6.5

2.5

0.5

Dividend per share (c)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

74.8

77.7

76.4

76.6

77.0

77.3

EBITDA Margin (%)

N/A

3.2

N/A

12.9

7.6

3.1

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

N/A

1.9

N/A

12.2

6.5

2.2

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

2,369

2,056

1,809

1,659

2,246

2,168

Intangible Assets

99

65

139

87

78

77

Tangible Assets

1,582

1,316

1,202

1,096

1,693

1,615

Deferred Tax assets

688

675

468

476

476

476

Current Assets

 

 

12,213

12,641

11,987

16,661

17,419

18,310

Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Debtors

6,631

5,876

6,341

7,515

6,982

7,054

Cash

5,582

6,765

5,646

9,146

10,436

11,257

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(9,641)

(8,870)

(9,143)

(9,387)

(8,363)

(8,882)

Creditors

(9,641)

(8,870)

(9,143)

(9,387)

(8,363)

(8,882)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(29)

(42)

(45)

(56)

(56)

(56)

Long term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

(29)

(42)

(45)

(56)

(56)

(56)

Net Assets

 

 

4,912

5,785

4,608

8,877

11,246

11,540

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(5,892)

747

(763)

3,767

1,662

1,107

Net Interest

246

111

25

14

28

28

Tax

8

(50)

(54)

(75)

(275)

(53)

Capex

(472)

(163)

(327)

(206)

(255)

(262)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

0

0

0

0

Financing

303

538

0

0

130

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

(5,807)

1,183

(1,119)

3,500

1,290

821

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(11,389)

(5,582)

(6,765)

(5,646)

(9,146)

(10,436)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(5,582)

(6,765)

(5,646)

(9,146)

(10,436)

(11,257)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by SLI Systems and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by SLI Systems and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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