Capital and income returns continuing

Picton Property Income 30 July 2018 Update
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Picton Property Income

Capital and income returns continuing

Q119 NAV report

Real estate

30 July 2018

Price

90.50p

Market cap

£486m

Net debt (£m) as at 30 June 2018

169.8

Net LTV as at 30 June 2018

25.5%

Shares in issue

539.0m

Free float

100%

Code

PCTN

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(3.3)

0.4

5.6

Rel (local)

(4.1)

(2.1)

1.8

52-week high/low

93.4p

81.5p

Business description

Picton Property Income is an internally managed investment company that invests in commercial property across the UK. The investment objective is to provide investors with an attractive level of income and the potential for capital growth.

Next events

Payment of Q119 DPS

31 August 2018

REIT conversion expected

1 October 2018

Analysts

Martyn King

+44 (0)20 3077 5745

Andrew Mitchell

+44 (0)20 3681 2500

Picton Property Income is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

The Q119 NAV total return was 2.5%, with a high level of occupancy maintained and successful progress made with lease events. Picton’s portfolio has a strong bias towards industrial and regional office property markets, which remain robust with widespread rental growth. In addition, Picton’s portfolio continues to offer significant reversionary potential. Shareholders have approved conversion to REIT status, which is expected to take effect from 1 October 2018 and should enhance future profitability, with no material impact on investment and portfolio strategy.

Year end

Net rental
income (£m)

EPRA EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

EPRA NAV/
share (p)

P/EPRA NAV
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/17

42.4

3.81

3.35

81.8

1.11

3.7

03/18

38.4

4.19

3.45

90.4

1.00

3.8

03/19e

37.8

4.27

3.57

93.5

0.97

3.9

03/20e

38.1

4.43

3.68

96.1

0.94

4.1

Note: *EPRA EPS excludes revaluation gains/losses and other exceptional items.

Good progress; no material changes to forecasts

Income earnings during the quarter covered dividends per share of 0.875p by 121%. Like-for-like revaluation gains of 0.8% and gains on the disposal of two properties for £11.8m, 8.4% ahead of the March valuation, contributed to NAV growth of 1.5% to 91.8p. The NAV total return for the quarter was 2.5%. Lease events with a combined annual rent of £0.9m were completed in the period at an average 6.2% uplift to the March estimated rental value (ERV). Occupancy was maintained at a high 95%, dipping slightly from March (96%) due to asset management actions. A £33.7m debt repayment since the end of Q119 will save c £1m pa in interest costs, broadly matching the income impact of the disposals, while LTV has fallen to 25.5% (March: 26.2%). We have made only very minor adjustments to our forecasts for EPS and NAV, and no change to DPS.

Significant reversionary potential

Picton’s portfolio continues to be overweight regional industrial and office property and significantly underweight retail and leisure (with no shopping centre exposure). This positioning had a positive impact on returns in FY18 and Q119 and consensus expectations remain positive for FY19. As discussed in our recent outlook note, there is significant reversionary potential within the portfolio. At the end of FY18, the ERV was c £6.5m ahead of the contracted rent roll, representing the opportunity to lift income from existing assets further, through leasing vacant space, rent reviews and lease expiry opportunities.

Valuation: Well-covered DPS supports strong returns

Picton offers well-covered and growing dividends, providing a yield of c 4.0%, and trades at around its EPRA NAV broadly in line with peers. The current yield is below the median c 5% on a group of immediate peers as despite having a strong income focus, Picton also chooses to reinvest into the portfolio in ways designed to support occupancy and income growth, with the specific goal of enhancing long-term total return. Continuing this approach, it has significant opportunities to grow income and value further from the current portfolio.

Further details from the update

A summary of the NAV progression during the three months to 30 June 2018 (Q119) is shown in Exhibit 1. The c £6.0m movement in property values includes a £5.4m, or 0.8% like-for-like, portfolio revaluation movement and a c £0.6m gain on disposals after costs. Income earnings after tax of c £5.7m covered dividends for the quarter by 121%. In aggregate, net assets grew 1.5% and net asset value per share by a similar amount to 91.8p. As discussed below, the early retirement of £33.7m of debt, due to mature in July 2022, that has taken place since the end of Q119, will have a negative impact on Q219 NAV per share of c 0.7p but will reduce recurring interest expenses.

Exhibit 1: Q119 NAV movement

Total (£m)

Movement %

Per share (p)

NAV at 31 March 2018

487.4

90.4

Movement in property values

6.0

1.3

1.2

Net income after tax

5.7

1.2

1.1

Dividends paid

(4.7)

(1.0)

(.9)

Other

0.2

-

-

NAV at 30 June 2018

494.6

1.5

91.8

Pro-forma NAV at 30 June 2018*

491.1

0.8

91.1

Source: Picton. Note: Pro-forma for impact of post period-end early debt repayment.

The composition of the Q119 net asset value can be seen in Exhibit 2. The reduction in the value of investment properties (stated net of lease incentives) in the quarter reflects the completed sales of two office assets for an aggregate £11.8m, 8.4% ahead of the March valuation, partly offset by the positive revaluation movement. As at 30 June 2018, the portfolio had a net initial yield of 5.4%, allowing for void holding costs (March: 5.5%). The increase in the cash balance broadly corresponds to the properties sold. Picton has also helpfully provided a pro-forma position that shows the end-Q119 position adjusted for the subsequent debt repayment.

Exhibit 2: NAV breakdown

Pro-forma

30 June 2018

30 June 2018

31 March 2018

31 December 2018

Investment properties

669.4

669.4

674.5

665.3

Other assets

16.3

16.6

17.9

18.1

Cash

21.6

44.0

31.5

31.7

Other liabilities

(21.6)

(21.6)

(22.5)

(21.4)

Borrowings

(194.6)

(213.8)

(214.0)

(216.3)

Net assets

491.1

494.6

487.4

477.4

Net asset value per share (p)

91.1

91.8

90.4

88.6

Source: Picton. Note: Pro-forma for impact of post period-end early debt repayment.

On 20 July, Picton completed the early repayment of £33.7m of debt, due July 2022, reducing its total debt outstanding to £194.6m. The debt that was repaid was not due to mature until July 2022 and carried a fixed interest rate of 4.08%. It was repaid using £23m of cash resources, with the balance coming from one of the group’s revolving credit facilities, at a cost of 1.75% above Libor, or c 2.5% currently. The vast majority of the remaining debt (87%) is now fixed under long-term facilities, with the rest at variable rates. Average maturity extends to c 10.6 years and the weighted average cost of debt falls to 4.0%. In addition, Picton has secured other amendments to the loan documentation covering the c £80m debt balance with the lender involved, which will increase operational flexibility. We have adjusted our estimates (shown below) for the repayment, which results in an annualised interest saving of c £1.0m while incurring a one-off repayment fee of £3.2m and crystallising un-amortised loan arrangement fees of c £300k. The impact on NAV, to be recognised in Q219, will be a c 0.7p reduction.

Picton’s industrial portfolio (43% of the total) continued to drive the valuation performance, with a like-for-like gain of 3.4% in the quarter, supported by continuing rental growth. The office portfolio (34.5% of the total) saw a small 0.1% overall like-for-like valuation decline within which regional office performance was positive, with occupier demand remaining strong, while London offices, where Picton is underweight, saw a value decline reflecting a weaker rental outlook. Retail and leisure (22.5% of the portfolio), another area where the portfolio is underweighted, saw a 2.5% like-for-like value decline driven by high street retail property.

During the period, seven lettings, six lease renewals/re-gears and two rent reviews were completed, with a combined annual rent of £0.9m, on average 6.2% ahead of the March ERV. Occupancy remained high at 95% but was slightly lower than March (96%). The reduction reflects the surrender of two leases at business parks within the industrial portfolio, reflecting ongoing active management, where management expects to be able to re-let the units at rents significantly ahead of the previous passing rent.

Estimate revisions

Our revised estimates allow for the year-to-date property sales and debt repayment, which broadly offset each other at the level of EPRA earnings. The Q119 revaluation movement was consistent with our existing forecasts and EPRA NAV reduces slightly, with the Q119 disposal gain partly offsetting the upfront cost of the debt repayment.

Exhibit 3: Estimates revision

Net rental income (£m)

EPRA EPS (p)

EPRA NAV/share (p)

DPS (p)

Old

New

% change

Old

New

% change

Old

New

% change

Old

New

% change

FY19e

38.5

37.8

(1.8)

4.30

4.27

(0.8)

94.0

93.5

(0.6)

3.57

3.57

0.0

FY20e

39.1

38.1

(2.3)

4.43

4.43

0.1

96.6

96.1

(0.5)

3.68

3.68

0.0

Source: Picton Property, Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 4: Financial summary

Year end 31 March

£'000s

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

31,967

35,151

40,770

47,911

42,855

42,134

42,448

Service charge income

4,782

4,511

5,153

6,487

5,927

6,000

6,000

Total revenue

 

 

36,749

39,662

45,923

54,398

48,782

48,134

48,448

Gross property expenses

(8,992)

(9,320)

(10,001)

(12,011)

(10,335)

(10,300)

(10,300)

Net rental income

 

 

27,757

30,342

35,922

42,387

38,447

37,834

38,148

Administrative expenses

(1,139)

(1,194)

(1,510)

(1,613)

(1,914)

(1,600)

(1,650)

Operating Profit before revaluations

 

 

26,618

29,148

34,412

40,774

36,533

36,234

36,498

Revaluation of investment properties

18,422

53,163

44,171

15,087

38,920

15,000

10,000

Profit on disposals

5,660

412

799

1,847

2,623

900

0

Management expenses

(2,127)

(2,591)

(2,901)

(3,636)

(3,652)

(3,743)

(3,837)

Operating Profit

48,573

80,132

76,481

54,072

74,424

48,390

42,662

Net finance expense

(10,868)

(10,930)

(11,417)

(10,823)

(9,747)

(12,497)

(8,762)

Profit Before Tax

 

 

37,705

69,202

65,064

43,249

64,677

35,894

33,899

Taxation

(357)

(347)

(216)

(499)

(509)

(205)

0

Profit After Tax

37,348

68,855

64,848

42,750

64,168

35,689

33,899

Profit After Tax (EPRA)

13,266

15,280

19,878

20,566

22,625

22,989

23,899

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

359.9

445.3

540.1

540.1

539.7

539.0

539.0

EPS (p)

 

 

10.38

15.46

12.01

7.92

11.89

6.62

6.29

EPRA EPS (p)

 

 

3.69

3.43

3.68

3.81

4.19

4.27

4.43

Dividends declared per share (p)

 

 

3.000

3.000

3.300

3.350

3.450

3.570

3.680

Dividend cover (x)

1.23

1.14

1.12

1.14

1.22

1.19

1.20

Ongoing charges ratio (excluding property expenses)

1.7%

1.2%

1.1%

1.2%

1.1%

1.1%

1.1%

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

421,393

536,898

649,406

615,187

670,679

682,129

695,632

Investment properties

417,207

532,926

646,018

615,170

670,674

682,124

695,627

Other non-current assets

4,186

3,972

3,388

17

5

5

5

Current Assets

 

 

42,879

84,111

37,408

49,424

50,633

37,747

38,638

Debtors

10,527

14,019

14,649

15,541

19,123

15,105

15,306

Cash

32,352

70,092

22,759

33,883

31,510

22,642

23,332

Current Liabilities

 

 

(17,369)

(17,480)

(47,521)

(20,635)

(22,292)

(20,458)

(20,719)

Creditors/Deferred income

(14,434)

(16,468)

(18,430)

(20,067)

(21,580)

(19,746)

(20,007)

Short term borrowings

(2,935)

(1,012)

(29,091)

(568)

(712)

(712)

(712)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(232,807)

(233,559)

(222,161)

(202,051)

(211,665)

(195,467)

(195,467)

Long term borrowings

(231,081)

(231,834)

(220,444)

(200,336)

(209,952)

(193,752)

(193,752)

Other long term liabilities

(1,726)

(1,725)

(1,717)

(1,715)

(1,713)

(1,715)

(1,715)

Net Assets

 

 

214,096

369,970

417,132

441,925

487,355

503,951

518,084

Net Assets excluding goodwill and deferred tax

 

 

214,096

369,970

417,132

441,925

487,355

503,951

518,084

NAV/share (p)

56.4

68.5

77.2

81.8

90.4

93.5

96.1

EPRA NAV/share (p)

56.4

68.5

77.2

81.8

90.4

93.5

96.1

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

23,145

24,705

33,283

36,283

35,088

30,848

32,746

Net Interest

(8,768)

(8,695)

(8,836)

(9,211)

(9,125)

(12,497)

(8,762)

Tax

(394)

(369)

(426)

(232)

(328)

(205)

0

Net cash from investing activities

(10,838)

(61,729)

(68,123)

48,691

(17,811)

8,276

(3,527)

Ordinary dividends paid

(10,711)

(13,102)

(17,822)

(17,957)

(18,487)

(19,091)

(19,766)

Debt drawn/(repaid)

(1,031)

(3,191)

14,591

(46,450)

9,183

(16,200)

0

Proceeds from shares issued

18,043

100,121

0

0

0

0

0

Other cash flow from financing activities

Net Cash Flow

9,446

37,740

(47,333)

11,124

(1,480)

(8,868)

690

Opening cash

 

 

22,906

32,352

70,092

22,759

33,883

32,403

23,535

Closing cash

 

 

32,352

70,092

22,759

33,883

32,403

23,535

24,225

Closing debt

(234,016)

(232,846)

(249,535)

(200,904)

(210,664)

(194,464)

(194,464)

Closing net (debt)/cash

 

 

(201,664)

(162,754)

(226,776)

(167,021)

(178,261)

(170,929)

(170,239)

Net LTV

34.6%

27.4%

26.7%

24.9%

24.3%

Source: Picton Property Income, Edison Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Picton Property Income and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

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Level 4, Office 1205

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Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

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Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Picton Property Income and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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