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Buyback significantly reduces share count

PDL BioPharma 27 March 2019 Update
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PDL BioPharma

Buyback significantly reduces share count

Financial update

Pharma & biotech

27 March 2019

Price

US$3.7

Market cap

US$474m

Net cash ($m) at 31 December 2018

244.6

Shares in issue

128.1m

Free float

91.9%

Code

PDLI

Primary exchange

NASDAQ

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

1.9

33.6

25.9

Rel (local)

1.0

17.0

18.7

52-week high/low

US$3.8

US$2.3

Business description

PDL BioPharma currently has a collection of healthcare-related royalty and note assets as well as Tekturna/Rasilez for hypertension. PDL is currently seeking additional commercial-stage pharmaceutical assets with multiple-year revenue growth potential, as well as late clinical-stage pharmaceutical products.

Next event

China Rasilez launch

H119

Analysts

Maxim Jacobs

+1 646 653 7027

Briana Warschun

+1 646 653 7031

PDL BioPharma is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

PDL BioPharma reported 2018 revenues of $198.1m, down 38.1% compared to 2017. This was due to the dwindling of Queen et al patent revenues and because 2017 results were unusually strong due to a large increase in the fair value of the Assertio royalty stream and a settlement payment from Merck. The company also announced that it has bought back $61m worth of its shares since the beginning of the $100m stock repurchase program announced last September. Earlier in March PDL announced the launch of an authorized generic for Tekturna, we note that another generic from Anchen Pharmaceuticals expected to follow, though timing is unclear.

Year
end

Revenue
($m)

PBT*
($m)

EPS*
($)

DPS
($)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/17

320.1

200.3

0.81

0.00

4.6

N/A

12/18

198.1

78.8

0.45

0.00

8.2

N/A

12/19e

122.5

58.7

0.38

0.00

9.7

N/A

12/20e

124.5

59.8

0.37

0.00

10.0

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Transition away from a direct salesforce successful

In August, PDL announced that Noden would discontinue its 60+ person contract salesforce and instead contract with Archer Healthcare to focus on email, direct mail and telesales. As a result, US Tekturna sales were up slightly while net income for Noden grew to $10.5m from $4.1m in Q318.

Tekturna generics

Earlier this month, the company announced that Prasco Laboratories, under an agreement with Noden Pharma, has launched an authorized generic of Tekturna. The settlement agreement state that Anchen Pharmaceuticals can launch its own generic version after 1 March 2019, but the timing is unclear. Due to the complexity in manufacturing Tekturna, the company does not expect additional generic competitors beyond Anchen.

Big change in strategy coming?

PDL continues to look for additional product acquisitions but has expanded its focus to include those that have not yet begun Phase III trials, and thus not just commercial or near-commercial products. If such an acquisition does occur, this would represent a big change in strategy as the company has avoided products requiring further clinical trials, and the large R&D expenditures that go with them.

Valuation: $757m or $5.91 per share

We have adjusted our valuation to $757m or $5.91 per basic share, from $786m or $5.39 per share. The decrease in the total valuation is mainly due to rolling forward our NPVs (due to shorter royalty runways), lowering the value of the CareView asset and a lower level of net cash. However, the per share value has increased due to the significant number of shares the company has repurchased.

Earnings update

PDL reported Q418 revenues of $45.1m, down 33.7% compared to Q417 and down 33.5% sequentially. The weakness compared to Q417 is due to the fact that royalties from the Queen et al patents dwindled to just $2,000 in Q418, Noden sales have fallen y-o-y, and there had been a one-time settlement payment from Valeant in Q417. The sequential comparison was challenging given a large change in fair value recorded in Q318 for the Assertio royalty rights following the purchase of Assertio’s remaining interest in those assets. Note that historically changes to the fair value of royalty assets have made PDL’s financial results lumpy, with large swings occurring on a quarterly basis.

Noden Q418 product revenue of $18.8m was down 25.2% compared to Q417 but up 5.8% compared to Q318. The sequential growth occurred despite the company announcing in August that it was transitioning away from its 60+ person contract salesforce and would instead contract with Archer Healthcare to focus on email, direct mail and telesales, which has proven to be surprisingly effective (see Exhibit 1). This transition also led to company sales and marketing expenses falling to $2.8m from $3.5m in Q318 and $6.5m in Q417. As a result, net income for Noden grew to $10.5m from $4.1m last quarter. It is difficult to gauge what profitability will look like going forward as an authorized generic has been launched and Anchen will likely launch its own generic soon.

Exhibit 1: Tekturna prescriptions through the salesforce transition

Source: PDL BioPharma

Also, as a reminder, Lee’s Pharmaceutical Holdings, which has licensed the rights to Tekturna/Rasilez from Noden for China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, is on track to launch in China in H119. Our current forecasts do not include any revenues for Tekturna/Rasilez in China, so any meaningful sales there could provide additional upside.

Additionally, LENSAR generated revenues of $7.2m in Q418, up 8.4% for the quarter. However, profitability deteriorated slightly with a quarterly loss of $1.7m compared to $0.9m last quarter.

What’s next for PDL?

With the Tekturna franchise going generic and PDL stating it will not be investing in any more royalty or debt assets, the company is at a crossroads. Historically the company has been looking to acquire commercial or near-commercial assets, but based on company comments on the Q418 earnings call, it is clear that it is willing to look at assets at an earlier stage of development (at the end of Phase II or later). If such an acquisition is consummated, the company would look far different than it does today as currently it does not have any in-house clinical development expertise. In addition, as PDL has stated it is looking at assets in a variety of different indications, it is unclear what the company might look like after such a transformation occurs as different diseases require different clinical and commercial organizations. PDL has historically been conservative in its acquisitions and price conscious even when it has been interested in purchasing an asset so we believe it is unlikely the company will overpay for an asset but the possibility of a major transformation still exists.

Valuation

We have adjusted our valuation to $757m or $5.91 per basic share, from $786m or $5.39 per share. The decrease in the total valuation is mainly due to rolling forward our NPVs (due to shorter royalty runways), lowering the value of the CareView asset and a lower level of net cash. The reason for lowering the value of the CareView note receivable is due to two recent deferments of principal and interest payments and a determination by PDL that the note was impaired and that an $8.2m impairment loss was necessary. We have removed all principal and interest payments from Careview from our model and lowered the value to the carrying value on the PDL balance sheet. The per share value increased as the company is in the midst of a $100m share repurchase program that was announced last September and has so far deployed $61m of that to buy back 19.4m shares.

Exhibit 2: PDL valuation

Royalty/note

Type

Expiration
year

PDL balance sheet carrying value ($m)

NPV
($m)

Assertio (formerly Depomed)

Royalty on Glumetza and other products

2024

$264.4

$271.1

VB

Royalty on Spine Implant

Undisclosed

$14.1

$14.7

University of Michigan

Royalty on Cerdelga

2022

$25.6

$12.8

Wellstat

Note (Impaired)

Unknown

$50.2

$50.2

Hyperion

Note (Impaired)

Unknown

$1.2

$1.2

Lensar

Equity

N/A

$56.2

AcelRx

Royalty on Zalviso

2027

$70.4

$73.7

CareView

Note (impaired)

2022

$11.5

$11.5

Noden

Equity

N/A

$37.6

$19.9

Kybella

Royalty

Unknown

$2.7

$0.8

Total

 

 

 

$512

Net cash (Q418) ($m)

$244.6

Total firm value ($m)

$757

Total basic shares (m)

128.1

Value per basic share ($)

$5.91

Total options (m)

1.4

Total number of shares (m)

129.5

Diluted value per share ($)

$5.84

Source: Edison Investment Research

Financials

We have decreased our estimated FY19 revenues to $122.5m from $126.9 mainly due to the expected loss of interest revenue from the CareView note. We have also decreased our SG&A estimates to $35.2m from $72.4m for FY19 as the company is spending at a much lower run rate than expected, mainly due to cost-cutting at Noden. We have introduced our FY20 estimates with revenues expected to grow slightly to $124.5m. The company ended the quarter with $394.6m in cash ($244.6m in net cash).

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

$000s

2017

2018

2019e

2020e

Year end 31 December

US GAAP

US GAAP

US GAAP

US GAAP

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

320,060

198,110

122,504

124,544

Cost of Sales

(30,537)

(48,460)

(29,060)

(29,348)

Gross Profit

289,523

149,650

93,445

95,197

General & Administrative

(63,324)

(62,559)

(35,164)

(36,571)

EBITDA

 

 

218,818

84,136

55,326

55,671

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

218,818

84,136

55,326

55,671

Intangible Amortisation

(24,689)

(15,831)

(15,831)

(15,831)

Other

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

(349)

(118,899)

0

0

Operating Profit

193,780

(50,594)

39,495

39,840

Net Interest

(18,562)

(5,328)

3,387

4,138

Other

9,309

0

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

200,256

78,808

58,713

59,809

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

184,527

(55,922)

42,882

43,978

Tax

(73,826)

(12,937)

(9,005)

(9,235)

Deferred tax

(0)

(0)

(0)

(0)

Profit After Tax (norm)

126,430

65,871

49,707

50,574

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

110,701

(68,859)

33,876

34,743

Minority interest

(47)

0

0

0

Profit After Tax less Minority Interest (FRS 3)

110,654

(68,859)

33,876

34,743

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

155.4

145.7

129.9

135.1

EPS - normalised ($)

 

 

0.81

0.45

0.38

0.37

EPS - FRS 3 ($)

 

 

0.71

(0.47)

0.26

0.26

Dividend per share (c)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Gross Margin (%)

90.5

75.5

76.3

76.4

EBITDA Margin (%)

68.4

42.5

45.2

44.7

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

68.4

42.5

45.2

44.7

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

602,680

446,519

340,011

290,082

Intangible Assets

215,823

51,319

51,319

51,319

Tangible Assets

7,222

7,387

8,612

9,857

Royalty rights

349,223

376,510

271,087

219,912

Other

30,412

11,303

8,993

8,993

Current Assets

 

 

640,443

517,217

630,202

745,296

Stocks

0

0

0

0

Debtors

31,183

21,648

21,648

21,648

Cash

527,266

394,590

507,575

622,669

Other

81,994

100,979

100,979

100,979

Current Liabilities

 

 

(193,109)

(52,470)

(52,470)

(52,454)

Creditors

(19,785)

(13,142)

(13,142)

(13,142)

Short term borrowings

(126,066)

0

0

0

Other

(47,258)

(39,328)

(39,328)

(39,312)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(204,124)

(181,487)

(181,487)

(181,487)

Long term borrowings

(117,415)

(124,644)

(124,644)

(124,644)

Other long term liabilities

(86,709)

(56,843)

(56,843)

(56,843)

Net Assets

 

 

845,890

729,779

736,257

801,437

Minority Interests

0

0

0

0

Shareholder equity

 

 

845,890

729,779

736,257

801,437

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

40,624

(13,425)

14,500

13,990

Net Interest

0

0

0

0

Tax

0

0

0

0

Capex

(1,297)

(4,523)

(1,225)

(1,245)

Acquisitions/disposals

128,415

57,969

99,710

102,350

Financing

0

0

0

0

Dividends

(222)

(48)

0

0

Other

212,592

(46,202)

0

0

Net Cash Flow

380,112

(6,229)

112,985

115,094

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

85,289

(283,785)

(269,946)

(382,931)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Exchange rate movements

0

0

0

0

Other

(11,038)

(7,610)

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(283,785)

(269,946)

(382,931)

(498,025)

Source: Edison Investment Research, PDL BioPharma reports

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This report has been commissioned by PDL BioPharma and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by PDL BioPharma. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a) (11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

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London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

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United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

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NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by PDL BioPharma and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by PDL BioPharma. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 427484). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a) (11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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