Assessment of short-term VCSEL slowdown

IQE 29 January 2019 Update
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IQE

Assessment of short-term VCSEL slowdown

Post-close trading update

Tech hardware & equipment

29 January 2019

Price

75.35p

Market cap

£585m

Net cash (£m) at end December 2018

20.8

Shares in issue

776.7m

Free float

83.8%

Code

IQE

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

14.7

(11.9)

(28.2)

Rel (local)

13.3

(10.0)

(18.8)

52-week high/low

149.0p

56.2p

Business description

IQE is the leading supplier of epitaxial compound semiconductor wafers globally. The principal applications include radio frequency semiconductors, devices for optical networks, vertical cavity lasers, infrared semiconductors and power electronics.

Next event

FY18 results

20 March 2019

Analysts

Anne Margaret Crow

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)20 3077 5729

IQE is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

IQE’s post-close trading update shows that the short-term dip in production for one of its volume VCSEL programmes had a more severe impact on FY18 performance than management originally estimated. Although we are cutting our FY18 EPS estimate by 10.6%, we note the underperformance compared with management’s guidance given in November appears confined to FY18. Importantly, it does not affect the prospects for photonics growth in the medium term, which are based on multiple VCSEL opportunities. Our revised estimates give an indicative value of 73p/share.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/16

132.7

20.6

2.89

0.0

26.1

N/A

12/17

154.5

24.3

3.36

0.0

22.4

N/A

12/18e

157.0

13.2

1.62

0.0

46.5

N/A

12/19e

194.8

34.1

3.48

0.0

21.7

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Short-term impact on revenues and profitability

We had previously inferred that the end use for IQE’s first volume VCSEL application was FaceID in new iPhones. Apple has publicly admitted that demand for iPhones has been lower than it expected, which has affected the supply chain. IQE had ramped up VCSEL production during H217, but pulled back output during the first three quarters of FY18 as the inventory overbuild was worked through. IQE began to build up VCSEL inventory again for the application during Q418, but shortly after it was obliged to cut back production. This surplus capacity was reallocated to accelerate VCSEL programme qualifications, which typically generate minimal margin.

Other volume VCSEL programmes reduce risk

We believe that the short-term dip in VCSEL production relates to sales weakness for Apple iPhones and associated inventory destocking. Since management expects shipments to resume during Q119 it has reiterated FY19 and longer-term guidance. We note that IQE is involved in VCSEL ramp-ups for at least eight customers engaged in several market segments, providing alternative sources of photonics growth and reducing the exposure to weakness in product sales for any single OEM. The company is in the process of bringing additional photonics capacity into production at its new Newport foundry with 12 companies already actively qualifying this new volume production facility.

Valuation: Upside from new VCSEL programmes

Using our revised estimates as the basis for a DCF analysis gives an indicative valuation of 73p/share (unchanged), which is close to current levels. Modelling segmental growth from FY20 onwards at the low and high ends of management guidance provided in September gives indicative valuations of 53p/share and 122p/share. We see potential for share price improvement should newsflow regarding new VSCEL programmes result in earnings upgrades.

Revisions to estimates

We revise our FY18 estimates to reflect:

More precise guidance from management on the impact of the temporary dip in VCSEL production for what we believe to be for a Lumentum/Apple programme.

£3.35m exceptional costs (£1.2m cash) relating to the closure of the New Jersey facility and redeployment of its reactors elsewhere within the group.

£4.5m exceptional costs (all non-cash) relating to an onerous lease provision through to the end of the lease in 2022, for unused and unlet space in the Singapore facility.

Management has reiterated the guidance for FY19 that was originally given in November when the iPhone destocking was announced, so we leave our FY19 estimates unchanged and will revisit them when there is greater visibility of Q119 trading at the prelims in March.

Exhibit 1: Changes to estimates

FY17

FY18e

FY19e

(£m)

Actual

Old

New

% change

Old

New

% change

Revenue

154.5

162.4

157.0

-3.4%

194.8

194.8

0.0%

EBITDA

38.4

31.2

27.6

-11.5%

50.0

50.0

0.0%

Adjusted PBT

24.3

16.8

13.2

-21.4%

34.1

34.1

0.0%

Adjusted EPS (p)

3.36

1.81

1.62

-10.6%

3.48

3.48

0.0%

Capitalised R&D

16.9

13.0

13.0

0.0%

13.0

13.0

0.0%

Investment in tangible assets

18.0*

33.0

33.0

0.0%

25.0

25.0

0.0%

Net cash

45.6

22.5

20.8

-7.6%

23.0

18.2

-20.8%

Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Including £6.7m funded through finance leases.

Valuation: Upside from new VCSEL programmes

Exhibit 2: DCF analysis

FY18e

FY19e

FY20e

FY21e

FY22e

Base case

Wireless growth

4.5%

5.0%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

Photonics growth

-2.5%

67.7%

40.0%

40.0%

40.0%

IR growth

12.0%

12.0%

7.0%

7.0%

7.0%

Licence revenues (£m)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Group revenues (£m)

157.0

194.8

229.0

275.8

340.2

EBIT (£m)

13.1

34.1

51.3

68.9

93.4

Indicative valuation (WACC 10%, terminal growth 2%): 73p/share

Low case

Wireless growth

4.5%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

Photonics growth

-2.5%

40.0%

40.0%

40.0%

40.0%

IR growth

12.0%

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

Licence revenues (£m)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Group revenues (£m)

157.0

176.2

202.9

240.1

291.9

EBIT (£m)

13.1

28.7

42.7

57.0

77.0

Indicative valuation (WACC 10%, terminal growth 2%): 53p/share

High case

Wireless growth

4.5%

5.0%

10.0%

10.0%

10.0%

Photonics growth

-2.5%

67.7%

60.0%

60.0%

60.0%

IR growth

12.0%

15.0%

15.0%

15.0%

15.0%

Licence revenues (£m)

0.0

0.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

Group revenues (£m)

157.0

195.2

256.3

344.8

479.7

EBIT (£m)

13.1

34.2

59.2

91.0

141.0

Indicative valuation (WACC 10% Terminal growth 2%): 122p/share

Source: Edison Investment Research

As the share prices of stocks in this sector have been highly volatile in recent months, we have focused on a DCF analysis rather than a peer multiples approach. Moreover, for the reasons stated above, we believe that the reduction in VCSEL shipments is temporary and that photonics will continue to grow at 40–60% or more per annum from FY19 onwards as per management guidance and a DCF methodology captures the impact of this medium-term growth. We present three scenarios. The base case adopts the rate of growth used in our estimates, then segmental growth from FY20 onwards towards the lower end of management’s guidance given at the capital markets day in September 2018. The low case adopts segmental growth from FY19 onwards at the lower end of management’s guidance. The high case adopts the higher bound of the market growth for FY20–23 given in management’s guidance. Our analysis gives an indicative valuation of 53–122p/share.

The share price has risen by over 30% since the sell-off in November following the first news of the dip in VCSEL production. It is now in line with our base case indicative valuation, suggesting that confidence in a recovery in volume VCSEL production has increased and also that investors have recognised that IQE’s photonics activity involves more than a single, albeit very high profile VCSEL programme. Further newsflow on the VCSEL programmes that have recently started production has the potential to generate earnings upgrades and associated share price movement towards our high case indicative valuation of 122p/share.


Exhibit 3: Financial summary

£'000s

2016

2017

2018e

2019e

Year End 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

restated

Revenue

 

 

132,707

154,480

156,970

194,807

Cost of Sales (Inc D&A + SBP)

(98,538)

(115,857)

(112,233)

(137,339)

Gross Profit

34,169

38,623

44,736

57,468

EBITDA

 

 

33,057

38,384

27,642

50,008

Depreciation and Amortisation

(10,938)

(12,025)

(14,527)

(15,932)

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

22,119

26,359

13,115

34,076

Acquired Intangible Amortisation

(1,374)

(1,429)

(1,429)

(1,429)

Exceptionals

1,962

(385)

(7,850)

0

Share based payments

(2,881)

(7,526)

(3,000)

(3,000)

Operating Profit

19,826

17,019

836

29,647

Underlying interest

(1,463)

(2,099)

100

0

Exceptionals

(26)

80

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

20,630

24,340

13,215

34,076

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

18,363

14,920

936

29,647

Tax

(340)

(435)

(169)

(5,336)

Profit After Tax (norm)

20,692

24,823

13,047

28,739

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

18,023

14,485

768

24,310

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

671.5

689.5

751.7

776.0

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

2.89

3.36

1.62

3.48

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

2.66

2.09

0.09

3.12

Dividend per share (p)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

214,043

224,836

254,880

275,519

Intangible Assets

103,972

108,513

113,057

116,196

Tangible Assets

85,001

90,875

116,375

133,875

Other

25,070

25,448

25,448

25,448

Current Assets

 

 

64,323

111,559

89,229

110,016

Stocks

28,498

33,707

34,834

44,299

Debtors

30,868

32,240

33,630

47,501

Cash

4,957

45,612

20,764

18,217

Other

0

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(51,522)

(44,916)

(43,144)

(53,123)

Creditors

(43,870)

(44,916)

(43,144)

(53,123)

Short term borrowings

(7,652)

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(39,021)

(666)

(666)

(666)

Long term borrowings

(36,854)

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

(2,167)

(666)

(666)

(666)

Net Assets

 

 

187,823

290,813

300,299

331,746

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

22,463

29,717

22,152

36,652

Net Interest

(1,489)

(2,125)

100

0

Tax

(839)

(5,844)

(1,100)

(1,200)

Capex

(19,060)

(28,190)

(46,000)

(38,000)

Acquisitions/disposals

(11,250)

0

(3,846)

0

Financing

578

94,912

3,846

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

(9,597)

88,470

(24,848)

(2,548)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

23,223

39,549

(45,612)

(20,764)

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Other

(6,729)

(3,309)

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

39,549

(45,612)

(20,764)

(18,217)

Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by IQE and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by IQE. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 427484). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

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Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a) (11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

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Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by IQE and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by IQE. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the Edison analyst at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 427484). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

Neither this document and associated email (together, the "Communication") constitutes or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of, or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Any decision to purchase shares in the Company in the proposed placing should be made solely on the basis of the information to be contained in the admission document to be published in connection therewith.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document (nor will such persons be able to purchase shares in the placing).

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a) (11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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