Numis Corporation — Another strong quarter and positive outlook

Numis Corporation (LSE: NUM)

Last close As at 18/03/2024

GBP3.43

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Research: Financials

Numis Corporation — Another strong quarter and positive outlook

A strong end to FY21 means that Numis expects revenues of c £215m and prompts a further increase in our estimate. The near-term outlook is also very positive, with a number of IPOs in the pipeline. Market cycles will mean less favourable conditions at some point, but the success Numis has had in growing and broadening its franchise puts it in a good position to make further progress through these fluctuations.

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Financials

Numis Corporation

Another strong quarter and positive outlook

FY21 year-end update

Financial services

1 October 2021

Price

360p

Market cap

£386m

Net cash (£m) at end March 2021

97.6

Shares in issue

107.3

Free float

75%

Code

NUM

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(4.3)

1.1

21.3

Rel (local)

(3.1)

0.0

(1.9)

52-week high/low

398

286.5

Business description

Numis Corporation is one of the UK's leading independent investment banking groups, offering a full range of research, execution, equity capital markets, corporate broking and advisory services. It employs over 300 staff in offices in London and New York, and at the end of September 2020 had 188 corporate clients.

Next events

FY21 results

8 December 2021

AGM

8 February 2022

Analysts

Andrew Mitchell

+44 (0)20 3681 2500

Martyn King

+44 (0)20 3077 5745

Numis Corporation is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

A strong end to FY21 means that Numis expects revenues of c £215m and prompts a further increase in our estimate. The near-term outlook is also very positive, with a number of IPOs in the pipeline. Market cycles will mean less favourable conditions at some point, but the success Numis has had in growing and broadening its franchise puts it in a good position to make further progress through these fluctuations.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

09/19

111.6

12.4

8.1

12.0

44.4

3.3

09/20

154.9

37.1

26.7

12.0

13.5

3.3

09/21e

215.2

66.4

44.9

12.0

8.0

3.3

09/22e

181.4

44.2

29.8

12.0

12.1

3.3

Note: *PBT and EPS are on a reported basis and EPS is fully diluted.

A strong end to the year and investing for the future

In its year-end update, Numis has reported a further strong quarter in the period to end September and expects FY21 revenue in the region of £215m (FY20: £155m), including Investment Banking revenue of over £150m (FY20: £102m). Pre-tax profits are expected to be significantly higher than the £37.1m reported for FY20. In Investment Banking, a summer pause in IPO activity and more subdued markets were offset by several significant M&A transactions. During the year, market share gains in UK capital markets were also augmented by private markets transactions and deals for non-UK issuers, which point to the development of the franchise. To further this development, additional recruitment has taken place and is planned. The second half performance for Equities was strong, although revenue did not match an exceptional H121 (£33.4m). FY21 Institutional income was ahead of the prior year and Trading produced consistent profits through the year, benefiting from a favourable market and a higher capital allocation.

Positive outlook

Looking ahead, Numis expects to launch a number of IPOs in the coming weeks and has a very strong pipeline including private markets. UK M&A activity is also seen as likely to remain high. This creates a very positive backdrop for the start of Numis’s FY22. As ever, maintenance of high activity levels will depend on market sentiment remaining favourable and, after a period of strong recovery from the initial impact of the pandemic, the potential for a quieter period is clear. On a longer view, Numis’s success in strengthening its business by investing to support its clients, developing private markets activities and broadening its franchise to non-UK clients, bodes well for its ability to grow further through market cycles.

Valuation

We have increased our FY21 EPS forecast by 7.5% and introduced an indicative FY22 estimate, which factors in some normalisation of activity levels (see Exhibit 5). This gives prospective P/Es of 8.0x and 12.1x respectively. The FY21 multiple places it below the average for US and European investment banks and its yield and ROE are relatively high (see Exhibit 7).

Background and estimate changes

Exhibits 1 and 2 show the trends in total issuance for the London Stock Exchange Main and AIM markets. For the five months to end August, Main Market total issuance was down 47% compared with the exceptionally strong, pandemic-influenced, prior year period when funds were being raised to support company balance sheets. However, within the lower overall total, new issue money raised was up 60%, reflecting more favourable market conditions. Over the same period, AIM total money raised was up 14% and, as with the Main market, new issuance was much stronger at more than 7x the depressed prior year level.

Exhibit 1: LSE Main Market issuance (money raised)

Exhibit 2: LSE AIM issuance (money raised)

Source: London Stock Exchange

Source: London Stock Exchange

Exhibit 1: LSE Main Market issuance (money raised)

Source: London Stock Exchange

Exhibit 2: LSE AIM issuance (money raised)

Source: London Stock Exchange

Exhibit 3 illustrates the recent performance of UK equity indices. The strong recovery from the pandemic-induced fall last year is clear with a more marked pick-up for smaller-cap stocks evident since late 2020 as a rotation towards higher-risk/more economically sensitive stocks took place. Both indices have seen a flatter performance more recently. The next chart shows the daily value traded on the London Stock Exchange order book and on AIM. Here there is difference evident between the pattern of activity for the two markets, with the Main Market showing a sharp spike as the pandemic impacted but AIM activity following later as interest rotated towards smaller-cap or risker stocks. Both have seen a more recent (partly seasonal) decline towards more normal levels.

Exhibit 3: UK equity indices

Exhibit 4: LSE average daily value traded (£m)

Source: Refinitiv, CBOE indices

Source: London Stock Exchange (Main Market order book and AIM)

Exhibit 3: UK equity indices

Source: Refinitiv, CBOE indices

Exhibit 4: LSE average daily value traded (£m)

Source: London Stock Exchange (Main Market order book and AIM)


We have adjusted our estimates to reflect the strong final quarter performance reported in the update. Exhibit 5 shows a segmental analysis of our revenue assumptions for H221, FY21 and newly introduced estimates for FY22 with prior full-year comparatives. Our total revenue estimate for FY21 is increased by 3.4%. At this stage our assumptions for FY22 are tentative given the normal uncertainties about fluctuations in market sentiment and hence capital markets activity levels. We have assumed a strong start to the year given Numis’s comments about its pipeline, but have then allowed for some normalisation on the basis that there may be a quieter phase in activity.

Exhibit 5: Revenue analysis

£000s

2019

2020

H121

H221e

2021e

2022e

Net trading gains

4,008

16,003

11,507

9,493

21,000

14,500

Institutional income

33,317

37,192

21,879

19,121

41,000

38,000

Equities

37,325

53,195

33,386

28,614

62,000

52,500

Corporate retainers

13,357

13,536

6,293

6,290

12,583

12,910

Advisory

12,576

11,146

12,428

15,572

28,000

31,000

Capital markets

48,352

77,022

63,319

49,281

112,600

85,000

Investment banking

74,285

101,704

82,040

71,143

153,183

128,910

Total revenue

111,610

154,899

115,426

99,757

215,183

181,410

Source: Edison Investment Research

On expenses, we have allowed for a further increase in staff numbers in H221 and also in FY22 to support client service levels in investment banking and the new Dublin office. Some double running costs will drop out in FY22 following the recent move to the new headquarters, but non-staff costs are likely to be pushed up by increased depreciation following IT updates with the move, costs related to the Dublin office and higher travel and entertainment spending following the end of lockdown restrictions.

Changes in the key numbers from our forecasts are shown below, with further detail from the new forecast given in the financial summary table (Exhibit 9).

Exhibit 6: Estimate changes

Revenue (£m)

PBT (£m)

Fully diluted EPS (p)

DPS (p)

Old

New

Change

Old

New

Change

Old

New

Change

Old

New

Change

09/21e

208.1

215.2

3.4%

62.0

66.4

7.2%

41.8

44.9

7.5%

12.0

12.0

0.0%

09/22e

181.4

N/A

44.2

N/A

29.8

N/A

12.0

N/A

Source: Edison Investment Research

Valuation

We have updated our peer comparison table showing UK investment banks/brokers and US and European investment banks and advisory firms in Exhibit 7. Comparison is limited by the fact that other UK companies lack consensus estimates and that there are different reporting points across the peers. Nevertheless, we note that Numis offers a relatively high yield, its P/E ratios are below the averages for the US investment banks and its ROE is high in the range.

Exhibit 7: Peer comparison

Price
(local)

Market cap
(£m)

Last reported
P/E (x)

Current P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

ROE
(%)

Price to book
(x)

UK brokers

Numis

360

386

13.5

8.0

3.3

21.0

2.2

Arden Partners

22

6

3.1

N/A

0.0

N/A

1.3

Cenkos

83

47

24.9

N/A

4.2

8.0

1.6

FinnCap

36

64

8.0

N/A

4.2

29.1

2.2

WH Ireland

53

33

25.6

N/A

0.0

7.7

3.0

UK brokers average

15.0

8.0

2.4

16.5

2.0

US, European IB and advisory

Bank of America

43.1

362,430

23.0

13.2

1.7

6.8

1.5

Evercore

136.4

6,166

14.2

10.7

1.7

43.8

4.5

Goldman Sachs

384.9

129,745

15.6

7.2

1.3

10.2

1.4

Greenhill

14.6

279

10.7

11.8

1.4

N/A

N/A

Jefferies Financial

37.7

9,316

14.2

7.2

1.5

8.1

1.0

JP Morgan

166.0

495,884

18.7

11.8

2.2

12.0

2.0

Moelis

63.2

4,160

21.7

15.4

2.2

N/A

7.6

Morgan Stanley

99.6

181,635

15.1

13.6

1.4

13.3

1.9

PJT Partners

79.7

2,847

16.2

16.1

0.3

N/A

12.3

Stifel Financial

69.1

7,237

15.1

10.7

0.7

N/A

1.9

Credit Suisse

9.3

24,929

8.8

9.7

1.1

5.9

0.5

Deutsche Bank

11.0

22,899

16.4

10.2

0.0

2.6

0.4

UBS

16.1

59,687

9.0

8.8

1.1

11.5

1.0

US, European IB and advisory average

15.3

11.3

1.3

12.7

3.0

Source: Refinitiv. Note: Priced at 29 September 2021. P/Es are for financial years therefore not all same period end.

The chart below shows a 10-year history of the price to book ratio for Numis. The current value is 2.2x, just above the 10-year average of 2.1x. Using an ROE/COE model to infer the ROE required to match the share price (360p) shown gives a value of 17.0%: below the 18% five-year historical average, our FY22 estimate, also 18%, and well below our estimate for FY21 of 30%. Arguably, this does not give sufficient weight to the strengthening in the franchise that has been achieved in recent years.

Exhibit 8: 10-year history of the price to book value ratio for Numis

Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 9: Financial summary

£'000s

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

Year end 30 September

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

112,335

130,095

136,047

111,610

154,899

215,183

181,410

Administrative expenses (excl. amortisation and depreciation)

(76,120)

(83,626)

(94,603)

(85,432)

(105,327)

(134,389)

(124,060)

Share based payment

(6,229)

(10,454)

(10,583)

(10,914)

(9,961)

(9,000)

(7,000)

EBITDA

 

 

29,986

36,015

30,861

15,264

39,611

71,794

50,350

Depreciation

 

 

(1,126)

(1,226)

(1,113)

(1,124)

(3,016)

(5,293)

(5,000)

Amortisation

(125)

(89)

(49)

(44)

(105)

(110)

(70)

Operating Profit

 

 

28,735

34,700

29,699

14,096

36,490

66,391

45,280

Net finance income

37

188

212

550

263

(1,941)

(1,050)

Other operating income

3,759

3,431

1,733

(2,210)

310

1,974

0

Profit before tax

 

 

32,531

38,319

31,644

12,436

37,063

66,424

44,230

Tax

(6,132)

(7,942)

(4,967)

(3,110)

(5,713)

(14,697)

(8,404)

Profit after tax (FRS 3)

 

 

26,399

30,377

26,677

9,326

31,350

51,726

35,826

Average diluted number of shares outstanding (m)

118.0

117.2

115.8

114.9

117.3

115.1

120.4

EPS - basic (p)

23.5

27.4

25.1

8.8

29.9

49.4

32.2

EPS - diluted (p)

 

 

22.4

25.9

23.0

8.1

26.7

44.9

29.8

Dividend per share (p)

12.00

12.00

12.00

12.00

12.00

12.00

12.00

NAV per share (p)

113.5

125.0

135.0

131.3

149.8

169.8

174.4

ROE (%)

22%

23%

19%

6.6%

21.2%

29.9%

18.3%

EBITDA margin (%)

26.7%

27.7%

22.7%

13.7%

25.6%

33.4%

27.8%

Operating margin (%)

25.6%

26.7%

21.8%

12.6%

23.6%

30.9%

25.0%

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed assets

 

 

5,522

6,147

8,215

6,832

12,639

57,881

52,053

Current assets

 

 

312,462

407,850

533,033

326,641

509,034

584,853

603,429

Total assets

 

 

317,984

413,997

541,248

333,473

521,673

642,734

655,482

Current liabilities

 

 

(188,895)

(280,371)

(398,112)

(195,319)

(361,397)

(417,956)

(417,956)

Long term liabilities

(12)

0

0

0

(2,643)

(36,873)

(33,251)

Net assets

 

 

129,077

133,626

143,136

138,154

157,633

187,905

204,275

CASH FLOW

Operating cash flow

 

 

48,735

43,369

45,830

(2,748)

65,953

23,410

50,544

Net cash from investing activities

84

(198)

(1,014)

(77)

(474)

(12,816)

(1,890)

Net cash from (used in) financing

(19,580)

(36,359)

(29,035)

(24,646)

(24,451)

(35,730)

(30,078)

Net cash flow

 

 

29,239

6,812

15,781

(27,471)

41,028

(25,136)

18,576

Opening net (cash)/debt

 

 

(59,591)

(89,002)

(95,852)

(111,673)

(84,202)

(125,217)

(100,108)

FX effect

 

 

172

38

40

0

(13)

27

0

Closing net (cash)/debt

 

 

(89,002)

(95,852)

(111,673)

(84,202)

(125,217)

(100,108)

(118,684)

Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Numis Corporation Corporation and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Numis Corporation Corporation. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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This report has been commissioned by Numis Corporation Corporation and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Numis Corporation Corporation. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

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Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

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United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Research: Real Estate

Regional REIT — Positioning for growth

Despite the pandemic and its impact on office occupation, Regional REIT’s (RGL) H121 performance was robust. A stand-out feature was the continuing strong rent collection, underpinning the high level of income distribution. The portfolio has been repositioned for earnings and dividend growth from good quality, affordable regional offices, with RGL expecting a steady near-term performance and acceleration from late 2022.

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