An attractive deleveraging bet

Jackpotjoy 14 November 2017 Update
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Jackpotjoy plc

An attractive deleveraging bet

Outlook and Q3 results

Travel & leisure

 

14 November 2017

Price

857.50p

Market cap

£635m

€1.12/£

Net debt (£m) at September 2017

298

Shares in issue

74.1m

Free float

95%

Code

JPJ

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

6.0

30.9

N/A

Rel (local)

7.8

29.1

N/A

52-week high/low

859.0p

534.0p

Business description

Jackpotjoy plc (JPJ) (formerly The Intertain Group) is a leading online gaming operator mainly focused on bingo-led gaming targeted towards female audiences. About 77% of revenues are generated in regulated markets. It moved its listing from the TSX to the LSE in January 2017.

Next events

FY results

March 2018

Analysts

Victoria Pease

+44 (0)20 3077 5740

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

Jackpotjoy plc is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Jackpotjoy plc (JPJ) is the clear leader in the c £800m UK bingo-led market, with exceptionally high EBITDA margins and strong cash flow. The group’s balance sheet is simplifying following a major earnout payment and we expect it to reach 2.0x net debt/EBITDA in 2019. With four sets of strong quarterly figures under its belt, JPJ’s shares have risen 42% since the January listing in London. Nonetheless, at 7.9x P/E, 8.2x EV/EBITDA and 11.7% free cash flow yield for 2018e, the stock still trades at a significant discount to peers and we believe the re-rating will continue as value steadily transfers from debt to equity.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

EBITDA* (£m)

PBT* (£m)

EPS* (p)

DPS (p)

P/E (x)

12/16

269.0

102.2

65.6

88.4

0.0

9.7

12/17e

298.2

107.4

65.2

86.4

0.0

9.9

12/18e

326.0

113.8

83.9

108.3

0.0

7.9

12/19e

349.4

116.4

92.5

117.0

0.0

7.3

Note: *EBITDA, PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. EPS is fully diluted.

Market dominance and high free cash flow

JPJ has a 23% market share in the c £800m UK bingo-led market, with additional growth in other markets, including Spain and Sweden. We forecast 9% revenue CAGR for 2016-19, which is broadly in line with industry growth estimates, and offsets an estimated 600bp drop in EBITDA margin, from the impact of rising gaming taxes. During 2017, JPJ paid a £94.2m earnout to Gamesys and has made significant progress in simplifying its balance sheet. Although the group remains relatively indebted (3.3x FY17e adjusted net debt/EBITDA), it currently generates c £100m operating cash flow per year and is comfortably positioned to cover the £44m earnout payment in June 2018. Leverage should then reduce rapidly.

Nudging up 2017 revenue and EBITDA

Q317 revenue grew by 14% to £75.4m vs Q316, with 21% growth in Vera&John. Growth of 12% in the core Jackpotjoy division was driven by Starspins and Botemania (Spain). Mandalay’s revenues declined by 8%; we believe it will be incorporated into Jackpotjoy in due course. As expected, marketing costs increased in the quarter and adjusted Q317 EBITDA margin was 35.4% vs 39.9% in Q217. We raise our FY17 revenue estimate from £294.8m to £298.2m and our FY17 EBITDA from £105.7m to £107.4m. Our 2018 and 2019 EBITDA estimates are unchanged.

Valuation: Up 42% year to date, but still below peers

JPJ has produced four sets of robust quarterly reports since relisting in London and the stock has risen 42% this year. Nonetheless, JPJ continues to trade at a meaningful discount to peers (7.9x P/E, 8.2x EV/EBITDA for 2018e), reflecting legacy concerns about the Gamesys relationship, high leverage, the lack of dividend and low liquidity. However, cash generation should lead to demonstrable debt reduction from 2018 and we would expect a continued re-rating of the shares as value steadily transfers to equity.

Investment summary: An established UK player
Brief history: Leading regulated online gaming business

Jackpotjoy plc (JPJ) is the world’s biggest online bingo-led operator and also offers online casino and social gaming. After its listing in London in January 2017, JPJ became the holding company for The Intertain Group, which de-listed from the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) at the same time. Intertain listed on the TSX in February 2014 (TSX:IT) and grew rapidly, with four acquisitions in 2014 and 2015 including Jackpotjoy (April 2015), which was acquired for £436m plus a c £300m earnout from Gamesys, which remains its platform provider. JPJ has already paid £250m of the earnout (see page 5 for more detail). After a strategic review in H116, new UK management was appointed (Neil Goulden and Andrew McIver) and the decision was made to list in London as Jackpotjoy plc (JPJ), pursuing an organic growth strategy. With the successful completion of the listing, Andrew McIver is stepping down as group CEO. Simon Wykes has joined as group MD, having formerly worked as CEO of Gala Leisure and MD at Gala Coral Group.

Financials: High margins, simplifying balance sheet

JPJ has grown very rapidly since 2014, via both acquisitions and strong organic growth. We expect revenue to grow by 10.8% in 2017 to £298.2m and 9.3% in 2018 to £326.0m. Our forecast 2017 EBITDA margin of 36.0% is significantly above industry averages, helped by lower than average marketing spend. As a result of the 2015 acquisition of Jackpotjoy from Gamesys, leverage remains relatively high (3.3x 2017e adjusted net debt/EBITDA). Following the £94.2m earnout payment to Gamesys in June 2017, the Q317 unrestricted cash balance was £39m and net debt was £298m. The most significant remaining obligation is a £44m earnout payment in June 2018 (for Botemania, which is the Spanish business within the Jackpotjoy division). Underlying cash conversion is approximately 100% and JPJ currently generates c £100m operating cash flow per year. We forecast net debt of £274m in 2018 and an adjusted net leverage of 2.5x, reaching 2.0x in 2019.

Valuation: Low rating presents an opportunity

Since listing in London in January, the stock has risen by 42%. However, it is still rated at a material (39%) discount to the sector on a FY18e P/E basis, although the EV/EBITDA discount (8%) is narrower due to its capital structure and leverage. A 10x 2018e P/E, which is still at a discount to peers to allow for the relatively high leverage, would imply a share price of 1,080p and a 9.7x 2018e EV/EBITDA, which is in line with 888 Holdings. Our DCF comes in marginally higher at 1,132p/share (range of 1,031-1,391p at 9-11% WACC).

Sensitivities: Regulation, operational and economic

77% of JPJ’s business is regulated, but licensed markets may still change tax rates or conditions (eg UK remote gaming duty is being applied to gross rather than net revenues from August 2017), and other markets may introduce licensing regimes with new taxes or product requirements (eg expected regulation in Sweden from 2019). JPJ is dependent on Gamesys for the operation of its largest segment, the ‘Jackpotjoy’ division, but the relationship is good, the operating agreements have considerable protections in place and JPJ now has much more control over strategy and budgets since March 2017 (the end of the main earnout period). Gamesys’ service fees will rise by 25% from April 2020 (currently supplied at cost) and we allow for this in our DCF. Other sensitivities include competition, including any pressure to spend more on marketing, which is currently far lower than industry averages (we estimate 16.5% marketing/revenues vs industry averages of 20-30%).

Investment considerations

JPJ has a market-leading UK position, high-growth businesses in Europe (mainly the Nordics and Spain) and opportunities for expansion into new territories such as Latin America. It mainly targets the female demographic (age 35-50), which differentiates it from most sportsbook and pure casino brands, which are male (18-35) focused. The group was built by acquisition but has now moved into an organic growth phase. Following the acquisition of Jackpotjoy from Gamesys, the group remains relatively indebted (2017e adjusted net debt/EBITDA of 3.3x) but strong underlying cash flows mean that the remaining Gamesys earnout (the Spanish part of Jackpotjoy – estimated at £44m in cash in June 2018) should easily be covered. Thereafter leverage should reduce rapidly.

JPJ is the market leader in the UK, with a 23% share of the bingo-led market

JPJ owns a leading portfolio of online gaming brands.

Strong brand name and high customer retention enables lower than average marketing spend. Combined with robust revenue growth, this leads to a high-margin, cash-generative business model.

JPJ is operating in a growth market, driven by mobile gambling

Estimates from the Gambling Commission and H2 Gambling Capital (H2GC) indicate that UK online gross gaming yield (GGY) will increase at a c 7% CAGR in 2016-21.This compares to our JPJ revenue CAGR forecast of 9% from 2016-19.

H2GC estimates that the UK bingo-led market (gross gaming revenue) generated c £787m in 2016. We estimate that this equates to net gaming revenues of c £600-650m.

Regulation will continue to have a negative impact on margins

The inclusion of free bets in the UK Point of Consumption Tax (POCT) is estimated to affect UK margins by 3-4% (Jackpotjoy UK, Starspins and Mandalay).

Sweden’s gaming regulation is expected in 2019, with an anticipated 18% tax.

Management team – incoming group MD has a strong operational background

The management team has been further strengthened during 2017, with the appointment of Simon Wykes (former CEO at Gala Leisure) as group MD, as well as new divisional heads for both Jackpotjoy and Vera&John.

Leveraged but simplifying balance sheet

Following the payment of a £94.2m earnout to Gamesys in June 2017, adjusted net debt/EBITDA was 3.35x in Q317 (from 3.6x at June 2017).

There is a residual contingent consideration of c £47.5m (time-weighted, probability-adjusted). In addition, there remains £15m in non-compete payments (accounted for in debt), being paid at £0.67m per month from April 2017.

Yearly operating cash flow of c £100m means that the company can satisfy its obligations internally and we expect deleveraging from mid-2018.

JPJ is dependent on Gamesys for the operation of Jackpotjoy

JPJ owns the brands, exclusive content, intellectual property, customer data and liquidity. Gamesys provides the content, hosts the platform and is responsible for marketing and customer support.

Service fees paid to Gamesys will increase by 25% in April 2020 (for staff who have not been internalised by JPJ before then).

There is a potential risk when the non-compete clause expires in April 2019. However, the relationship between the two companies is good and several operating agreements have considerable protections in place for the longer term.

The world’s largest bingo-led operator

JPJ provides online gaming to a global customer base, with its main focus being online ‘bingo-led’ real money gaming in the UK and Europe. It is the number one bingo-led operator globally and bingo-led gaming accounted for c 65% of revenue in the past 12 months (LTM) to September 2017, casino 28% and social gaming 6%. 77% of revenues are derived from regulated markets, which compares to Paddy Power Betfair (95%), 888 (71%), GVC (75%) and Stride Gaming (100%).

Exhibit 1: Divisional revenue mix*

Exhibit 2: Geographic revenue mix*

Source: JPJ, Edison Investment Research. Note: *LTM to September 2017

Exhibit 1: Divisional revenue mix*

Exhibit 2: Geographic revenue mix*

Source: JPJ, Edison Investment Research. Note: *LTM to September 2017

JPJ is organised into three divisions, of which the ‘Jackpotjoy’ division is the largest, accounting for 69% of revenues and 77% of EBITDA in Q317. JPJ operates its Vera&John casino brands on its own proprietary platform. The operation of its Jackpotjoy brands is fully outsourced to Gamesys, while Mandalay’s bingo-led brands are hosted by Dragonfish (888 Holdings).

Jackpotjoy division (69% of revenues)

JPJ’s flagship brand is Jackpotjoy. The Jackpotjoy division also includes the Starspins and Botemania real money gaming (RMG) brands. Jackpotjoy and Starspins also offer social games. The UK is the biggest market, accounting for c 77% of revenue, with Sweden at c 6%, Spain c 10% and the US 6% (social gaming only).

Exhibit 3: Jackpotjoy brand overview

Jackpotjoy

Starspins

Botemania

Social

Online B2C products

Bingo, casino, slots

Slots

Bingo, casino, slots

Social slots

Main markets

UK/Sweden

UK

Spain

US

Launch date

UK 2002, Sweden 2012

2013

2007

2011

Market position

#1 UK online bingo-led

Leading UK online slots site

#1 Spain online bingo-led

3.8m downloads

Monthly actives

120,000

25,000

20,000

500,000

Source: Jackpotjoy Investor Presentation September 2016, Edison Investment Research estimates

Jackpotjoy UK was launched in 2002 by Gamesys and grew rapidly to become the UK’s leading online bingo-led brand, with over 1.6 million registered players on its database. It has won many awards and enjoys very strong brand recognition, helped by high-profile television campaigns, such as the current promotion with brand ambassador Paddy McGuinness. Jackpotjoy has a loyal customer base and, in 2016, 90% of revenues came from players who joined in 2015 or earlier, much higher than the industry average. The Jackpotjoy brand was launched in Sweden in 2012, where slots are the most popular product offering. Starspins was launched in the UK in 2013 to complement Jackpotjoy with a pure slots offering. Botemania was launched in Spain in 2007 and regulatory changes allowed it to reintroduce slots in June 2015. In Q317, Botemania and Starspins comprised approximately 23% of divisional revenues, from 21% in Q217.

Jackpotjoy has steadily improved the monetisation of players through mobile, with mobile comprising 62% of Jackpotjoy revenues in Q3, vs 61% in Q2, 57% in Q1 and 55% in Q416. Mobile average revenue per user (ARPU) is now greater than desktop ARPU.

Mandalay (7% of revenue)

Mandalay mainly operates UK online bingo-led sites on the Dragonfish (888) platform and has over 30,000 monthly active customers. Its key brands include Costa Bingo, which was launched in 2009, and Sing Bingo, which was launched in 2010. With its multi-brand strategy, it differs from the Jackpotjoy division in the sense that customers typically have lower ticket prices with a more value-driven proposition. After the termination of the Jackpotjoy earnout period, JPJ is now able to cross-sell Mandalay brands to lapsing Jackpotjoy and Starspins players, although a meaningful impact is only anticipated from 2018. In addition, JPJ has stated that it is considering merging Mandalay with its other bingo assets, particularly given the focus on cross-selling between all the bingo brands as well as the relative size of Mandalay.

Vera&John (24% of revenue)

Vera&John was launched in 2011 and is a global online casino operator. It offers over 800 games (slots, table games, live casino, etc), both proprietary and from third-party suppliers such as NetEnt and Microgaming. It aims to offer a differentiated casino experience and many of its RMG games also have social variants that are played on a freemium basis. Its main RMG brands are Vera&John and Vera&Juan and it has over 30,000 monthly active players. It operates in over 10 countries and while the bulk of its revenues come from northern Europe, notably Sweden, we estimate that c 30% comes from Asia (mainly Japan).

Vera&John has a proprietary platform, which it is leveraging through a B2B white-label offering for white-label customers.

Relationship with Gamesys

Gamesys is a long-established private operator, having been formed in 2001. Its headquarters are in Piccadilly, London, and it has c 1,000 employees worldwide, including c 269 dedicated to Jackpotjoy. Other B2B customers include Virgin Games, Virgin Casino (New Jersey, US) and Heart Radio Bingo. Intertain acquired Jackpotjoy from Gamesys in April 2015 for £436m plus an earnout of approximately £300m, of which £250m has already been paid.

JPJ owns the brands, exclusive content, intellectual property, customer data and liquidity. Gamesys provides the content and hosts the platform, but it is more than just a platform provider, as it is also responsible for marketing and customer support. Coinciding with the end of the Jackpotjoy UK earnout period, Jackpotjoy gained control over its strategic plan and budget in April 2017.

The table below summarises the key points of the relationship, and a fuller discussion can be found in our February 2017 outlook note. The most salient points are a 25% rise in service and platform fee costs from 2020 (included in our DCF) as well as the ending of the non-compete clause in April 2019. Management has consistently provided reassurance that the relationship between Gamesys and Jackpotjoy is very strong and, given the operating agreements in place, we do not believe the ending of the non-compete clause will result in a change of platform provider.

Exhibit 4: Gamesys agreement with Jackpotjoy

Scope/ operation of:

Real Money Gaming (Jackpotjoy UK, Jackpotjoy Sweden, Starspins, Botemania)

Social Gaming (Jackpotjoy Social Slots, Starspins Social Slots)

Services

Platform and content

Marketing and customer support

Terms

Operating agreement until 2030

Content agreement until 2040

Non-compete until 2019

JPJ fees

Service costs: at cost and then at cost +25% from April 2020

Source: Jackpotjoy plc

History and development

JPJ started life as Aumento Capital II in Canada in 2011, a special purpose acquisition vehicle. It acquired InterCasino in February 2014, changed its name to The Intertain Group and listed on the TSX (TSX:IT). The business grew very rapidly on the back of three further acquisitions (see Exhibit 5), which took 2015 revenue to C$385m (2014: C$41m).

Exhibit 5: Acquisition record

Date

Initial consideration

Costs

Earnout

Remaining

Vendor

InterCasino

Feb-14

£39m

Cash

£1m

0

0

Amaya Inc (AYA:TX)

Mandalay

Jul-14

£45m

Cash

£4m

£14m

0

Founders

Vera&John

Dec-14

£70m

50/50 cash/shares

£6m

£6m

0

Founders

Jackpotjoy

Apr-15

£436m

85/15 cash/shares

£29m

c £300

£47.5m

Gamesys Ltd

Source: JPJ prospectus, Edison Investment Research

On 17 December 2015, Intertain was targeted by a 120-page short-seller report, which was the catalyst for a formal strategic review. The review culminated in a relisting in London, as well as the formation of a new management team. With a focus on deleveraging, the strategy is on organic growth rather than pursuing further acquisitions.

Management and board

To coincide with the January 2017 relisting in London, JPJ’s board and management team was restructured, with representation from an array of highly experienced British and Canadian members.

JPJ’s executive chairman Neil Goulden was formerly group MD, CEO and chairman of one of the UK’s leading gambling groups, Gala Coral, from 2001-14.

CFO Keith Laslop joined Intertain in February 2014 and provides considerable executive and financial continuity.

In October 2017, the company announced that Andrew McIver would be stepping down as group CEO, and the appointment of Simon Wykes as group managing director reflects the group’s focus on operational momentum, rather than the practicalities surrounding the relisting.

Since listing, new heads have been appointed for the Jackpotjoy and Vera&John divisions.

The non-executive directors provide a broad range of industry and financial experience. Full biographies are provided in JPJ’s listing prospectus.

Noel Hayden is a special adviser to JPJ. Noel founded Gamesys and remains its chairman and major shareholder. He was a director of Intertain until September 2016 and is a 3% shareholder in JPJ. His role should maintain the strong relationship between the two groups.

Exhibit 6: Management and board

Position

Tenure*

Comment

Neil Goulden

Executive chairman

Aug 16

Former CEO and chairman of Gala Coral 2001-14, leading industry roles

Simon Wykes

Group managing director

Nov 17

Former CEO Gala Leisure, MD Gala Coral Group, MD Rank Group

Keith Laslop

CFO/director

2014

CFO of Intertain since 2014, previously principal of Newcourt Capital (private equity)

Irina Cornides

CEO Jackpotjoy division

Jun 17

Former chief revenue officer of Intertain Bahamas

David Flynn

CEO V&J

Sep 17

Former chief commercial officer at NYX, previously CEO and COO of NYX Interactive AB

David Danziger

Independent non-exec

2011

Senior VP of assurance services at chartered accountants MNP LLP

Paul Pathak

Independent non-exec

2011

Partner, Chitiz Pathak LLP Toronto law firm since 1996

Jim Ryan

Independent non-exec

Mar 16

CEO of Pala Interactive since 2013, former co-CEO bwin/CEO partygaming

Colin Sturgeon

Independent non-exec

Jan 17

Senior positions at RBC Capital Markets 1981-2005

Nigel Brewster

Independent non-exec

Jan 17

Senior roles in private-equity backed UK leisure companies

Source: Jackpotjoy prospectus, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Date of original appointment to Intertain or JPJ boards rather than the technical date of appointment to the JPJ board.

Dominance in a growing market
UK online gaming market

The UK comprises approximately 65% of JPJ’s revenues and we provide a snapshot of the UK online market below. For a fuller analysis of the UK gaming industry, please see our October 2017 UK gaming sector report.

The Gambling Commission estimates that, at September 2016, there were 540 remote casino, betting and bingo licences held by 333 operators. From October 2015 to September 2016, UK digital revenues amounted to £4.46bn (vs £4.23bn in the year to March 2016). Similar to H2GC global online growth forecasts, estimates from the Gambling Commission and H2GC indicate that UK online GGY will increase at a c 7% CAGR in 2016-21. While still impressive, this represents a significant slowdown compared to the 15% CAGR between 2008 and 2015 (source: H2GC).

Exhibit 7: UK remote gaming sector – £4.46bn (October 2015 to September 2016)

Source: Gambling Commission

Results from the sportsbooks players (PPB, Ladbrokes) appear to indicate that online sports betting could be outpacing online casino growth, although this may also be operator specific. In addition, evidence from Jackpotjoy plc and Stride Gaming suggests that the market-leading, low-stakes soft gaming operators are achieving the greatest momentum.

There are no precise figures for market share in the UK online gaming market, as there is no obligation for operators to split revenues by geography. Furthermore, reporting lines can be blurred with, for example, most operators including bingo-led items (slots) in their bingo division. Looking at overall net gaming revenue per operator, however, it is clear that the online market is dominated by the sports operators, who have successfully cross-sold into real-money gaming.

Exhibit 8: Estimated UK online market share, 2016

Source: Company data, Gambling Commission, Edison Investment Research estimates

Online bingo

The UK is the world’s largest online, real-money bingo market, with 437 bingo sites in 2016. The UK Gambling Commission reports that online bingo generated £149m of gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the year to September 2016. This is the pure bingo figure (excluding slots). H2GC’s most recent estimates indicate that the UK bingo-led segment generated £787m GGR in 2016. These new figures imply that casino games (mainly slots) account for approximately 80% of the bingo-led market. Deducting the impact of free bets, we estimate that the UK bingo-led market generated approximately £600-650m in net gaming revenues (NGR) in 2016.

The UK bingo-led market is highly competitive and estimated market share has changed in the two years since remote gaming duty (RGD or POCT) was introduced. Key players are Jackpotjoy plc, Stride Gaming, Mecca, Tombola, 888, Gala Bingo and Foxy Bingo (GVC).

Gaming taxes and regulation

JPJ operates largely in regulated markets and pays significant gaming taxes (at 11.6% of total revenues in Q317), which are expected to rise steadily. Notable increases include:

UK Point of Consumption Tax (POCT): The extension of POCT to include free bets in the UK is being retrospectively enforced from August 2017. Our forecasts indicate a c 3-4% impact (annualised) to the UK businesses’ EBITDA (Mandalay, Starspins and Jackpotjoy UK). Across the group, this equates to approximately 2-3% of total EBITDA margin.

Spain: The 25% tax on Spanish gross gaming revenues will become more relevant as the Botemania revenues grow. We estimate that Botemania comprises c 11% of the Jackpotjoy division.

Sweden: Our forecasts include the expected 18% gaming tax in Sweden from 2019. This will mostly affect the Vera&John division, but we estimate that c 5% of the Jackpotjoy division is also derived from Sweden.

Sensitivities

Regulation: JPJ holds licences in Malta, the UK and Denmark, while services provided by Gamesys and 888 are covered by their Gibraltar, UK and (in the case of Gamesys) Spanish licences. Licence conditions and tax rates can and do change in regulated markets (as above). In addition, JPJ operates in Japan, which is an unregulated ‘grey’ market with no gaming licensing, and there could be a risk of sanctions.

Relationship with Gamesys: As noted above, JPJ is dependent on Gamesys for the operation of its largest segment. Its service fees will increase by 25% in April 2020 (for staff who have not been internalised by JPJ before then). While the earnout period is over for Jackpotjoy and Starspins, it runs to 31 March 2020 for Botemania. There is potential risk when the non-compete clause expires in 2019. However, the relationship between the two companies is good and several operating agreements have considerable protections in place for the longer term.

Technology and platform risks: Aside from Gamesys, JPJ is also dependent on 888 (Dragonfish) and other third-party suppliers such as payment processors. It is also exposed to the usual internet-related risks and the need to adapt to technological change.

Competition: JPJ operates in highly competitive markets. Some of its competitors are bigger, with greater financial resources, but JPJ is the largest bingo-led operator, with the highest liquidity and the UK gaming tax is a barrier to entry for smaller operators.

Marketing: JPJ’s marketing spend is below the industry average due to the strength of the Jackpotjoy brand (at c 16.5% of revenue versus an average of 20-30%) and our forecasts are sensitive to assumptions about future spend ratios. Given the strong brand name and customer retention, we believe JPJ’s marketing will not rise substantially from current levels, but clearly any rise in marketing expense would correspondingly reduce EBITDA.

Economy: Gambling has historically proved resistant to economic slowdowns, but not immune, although the structural growth in online gambling outweighed economic pressures in the last major slowdown of 2007-08. For example, a slowdown related to Brexit could have an effect on the group’s customers or markets.

Indebtedness and earnout liabilities: JPJ reported net debt of £298m at 30 September 2017, with a further £47.5m earnout still to be paid. However, the company generates c £100m operating cash flow per annum, and is well placed to fund its remaining obligations, as well as begin to pay down debt. We estimate that adjusted net debt/EBITDA will fall from 3.3x at 2017 to less than 2.0x in 2019.

Q3 overview and changes to estimates

Q317 revenue increased by 14% to £75.4m, driven by a 21% growth in Vera&John, as well as 12% growth in the core Jackpotjoy division. At September 2017, average active customers grew 13% to 251,186 in LTM (the past 12 months) and average real money gaming (RMG) revenue per month grew 16% to £22.6m, equating to £90 per customer. The company reported an adjusted Q317 EBITDA margin of 35.4% (£26.7m) vs 38.5% (£25.6m) in the prior year. As expected and typical in H2, higher marketing spend in the quarter had an impact on EBITDA.

Including a one-off working capital inflow, Q3 cash conversion was over 100% and resulted in a quarterly operating cash flow of £32.6m. JPJ ended the quarter with an unrestricted cash balance of £39m and adjusted net debt of £298m.

Jackpotjoy (69% of revenues)

Jackpotjoy’s revenues increased 12% y-o-y to £52.2m and were sequentially flat vs Q217. Jackpotjoy UK revenues declined sequentially by c 3% and comprised approximately 65% of divisional revenues, vs 70% in the prior year and 67% in Q217. Starspins and Botemania continued to show robust growth and now comprise 23% of divisional revenues, vs 21% in Q217.

With the increased marketing costs in H217, Jackpotjoy’s Q317 adjusted EBITDA margin of 44.5% compares to 48.2% in the prior year and 47.6% in Q217. This continues to be significantly above industry averages of 20-30%. We forecast 2017 and 2018 revenues of £207.0m and £224.8m, respectively. With the impact of the tax on free bets (starting in Q417), our divisional EBITDA margin falls from 44.9% in 2016 to 44.6% in 2017 and 42.0% in 2018.

Vera&John (24% of revenues)

Q317 gaming revenue from Vera&John increased 28% to £18.4m vs the prior year, driven by growth in Sweden, Asia and other new jurisdictions. In constant currency, growth was 21%. Adjusted EBITDA of £4.9m represents a margin of 26.6%. We forecast continued strong growth in this division, with revenues of £70.9m in 2017 and £80.9m in 2018.

Mandalay (7% of revenues)

Q317 revenues declined by 8% to £4.9m vs the prior year. With the impact of lower marketing spend, however, EBITDA increased from £1.4m to £1.9m. As discussed at previous results, management has focused on changing promotional spend to improve operational margins and deposit hold in future periods. We forecast FY17 revenues of £20.2m to remain flat, with EBITDA margin declining from 36.8% in 2017 to 35.1% in 2018, largely due to the POCT on free bets.

Exhibit 9: Summary divisional forecasts

Gaming revenue £m

2016

2017e

2018e

2019e

Jackpotjoy

188.2

207.0

224.8

238.4

growth

55.3%

10.0%

8.6%

6.1%

Vera&John

57.0

70.9

80.9

90.6

growth

35.4%

24.4%

14.0%

12.0%

Mandalay

21.7

20.2

20.3

20.4

growth

1.2%

-7.0%

0.5%

0.5%

Total gaming revenue

266.9

298.2

326.0

349.4

growth

38.2%

11.7%

9.3%

7.2%

EBITDA

 

 

 

 

Jackpotjoy

84.6

92.2

94.4

98.5

margin

44.9%

44.6%

42.0%

41.3%

Vera&John

18.0

19.5

24.2

23.5

margin

31.6%

27.5%

29.9%

26.0%

Mandalay

6.6

7.4

7.1

7.1

margin

30.4%

36.8%

35.1%

34.7%

Corporate Costs

-7.0

-11.9

-11.9

-12.7

margin

-2.6%

-4.0%

-3.6%

-3.6%

EBITDA adjusted

102.2

107.4

113.8

116.4

EBITDA margin

38.3%

36.0%

34.9%

33.3%

Source: Jackpotjoy accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: Excludes other non-gaming income of £2.1m in 2016 (revenue guarantee and platform migration).

Estimate changes

Following Q317 results, we have nudged up our FY17 revenue and EBITDA estimates by 1.2% and 1.6%, respectively. Our 2018 and 2019 revenue forecasts also increase by c 1%, but we have kept our EBITDA forecasts unchanged, to allow for the impact of rising gaming taxes.

We have included accretion (for the payment of future earnouts) into our interest costs, raising our estimate for interest expense in 2017 from £32.0m to £40.3m and our amortisation estimate is raised from £55.0m to £61.2m. As a result, our 2017 fully diluted EPS estimate falls 8% to 86.4p.

Exhibit 10: Estimate changes

Revenue (£m)

EBITDA (£m)

EPS (p)

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

2017e

294.8

298.2

1.2

105.7

107.4

1.6

93.8

86.4

(7.9)

2018e

322.3

326.0

1.1

113.8

113.8

0.0

109.2

108.3

(0.8)

2019e

345.3

349.4

1.2

116.4

116.4

0.0

118.0

117.0

(0.8)

Source: Edison Investment Research

Cash flow and balance sheet

JPJ ended the quarter with an unrestricted cash balance of £39m and net debt of £298m. Including the contingent consideration, adjusted net debt/EBITDA was 3.35x in Q317, from 3.6x in Q217 and 4.0x in Q117.

Following the £94.2m earnout payment in June, the adjusted net debt calculation includes:

A contingent consideration of c £47.5m, which comprises the Botemania earnout and the three milestone payments that may be earned should the Jackpotjoy division reach certain EBIT thresholds in each of the three years to March 2020. The balance sheet figure of £47.5m is time weighted and probability adjusted. We estimate cash outflows of £49m in June 2018 (£44m for Botemania and a £5m milestone) with £5m outflows in June 2019 and June 2020 for the milestone payments.

A further c £15m of non-compete payments is already included in the debt figures.

Including a one-off working capital inflow, cash conversion in Q317 was over 100% and JPJ currently generates approximately £100m operating cash flow per year. The company is therefore comfortably positioned to meet its future earnout obligations. We forecast net debt of £273.8m in 2018, with an adjusted net leverage of 2.5x, reaching 2.0x during 2019.

Under the terms of its covenants, the group is permitted to pay dividends once leverage reaches 2.75x, and the company has stated that it intends to begin paying dividends once the balance sheet is closer to sector average gearing. We have not included dividends in our forecasts, as the company will still be quite leveraged by sector standards in 2019. But given the strong cash flow generation, and assuming the company does not participate in further M&A, it is possible that dividends could begin as early as 2019.

Valuation

Online gambling companies are generally valued on a P/E and EV/EBITDA basis, although we have also performed a DCF. Exhibit 11 shows the main UK-listed peers, of which we consider the closest to be 888 Holdings and GVC, both of which have sizeable online bingo and gaming operations, and the smaller Stride Gaming. Paddy Power Betfair is also a comparator, and highly rated. Ladbrokes, William Hill and Rank have large, low-growth, land-based estates as well as online operations; Playtech is mainly software/B2B. Internationally, B2C operators Betsson and Kindred are the closest peers.

The stock has risen 42% since listing, but remains at a discount to the sector. JPJ’s 2018e P/E of 7.9x compares to the UK sector average of 12.9x and the EV/EBITDA of 8.2x stands at a 8% discount. The group is demonstrating a lengthening track record as a 77% regulated, cash-generative gaming operator in a growing and consolidating marketplace. To allow for the above-average leverage, a conservative 10x 2018e P/E, which is still at a discount to peers, would imply a share price of 1,080p and a 9.7x 2018e EV/EBITDA, which is in line with 888.

Exhibit 11: Sector peer group multiples

Name

Quoted Currency

Market cap (m)

EV/EBITDA 1FY (x)

EV/EBITDA 2FY (x)

PE 1FY (x)

PE 2FY (x)

CAGR EPS Growth FY1-3

Div yield 1FY (x)

GVC HOLDINGS PLC

GBp

2,669

11.4

10.8

16.3

14.4

4.2%

3.4

LADBROKES CORAL GROUP PLC

GBp

2,561

8.0

6.7

11.5

8.6

3.5%

3.0

PADDY POWER BETFAIR PLC

GBp

7,289

16.0

14.1

22.6

19.9

4.5%

2.2

PLAYTECH PLC

GBp

2,621

8.7

8.0

12.5

11.4

4.0%

3.9

WILLIAM HILL PLC

GBp

2,304

7.9

7.5

11.5

10.6

1.3%

4.8

JACKPOTJOY PLC

GBp

633

8.7

8.2

9.9

7.9

16.3%

0.0

888 HOLDINGS PLC

GBp

895

12.3

9.8

20.7

16.1

3.3%

4.6

RANK GROUP PLC*

GBp

921

7.2

6.9

14.5

14.0

3.8%**

3.3

STRIDE GAMING PLC*

GBp

189

8.6

8.3

12.1

12.9

NA

1.1

STARS GROUP INC/THE

CAD

4,046

9.4

8.9

9.6

8.9

NA

NA

BETSSON AB

SEK

8,872

8.9

8.1

10.9

9.7

-1.9%

4.7

BET-AT-HOME.COM AG

EUR

724

17.3

14.7

21.3

18.7

5.1%

5.5

KINDRED GROUP PLC

SEK

24,393

14.8

12.5

19.5

16.5

-1.3%

3.3

Mean

10.7

9.6

14.8

13.0

3.9%

3.3

Median

8.9

8.3

12.5

12.9

3.8%

3.3

UK mean

9.9

8.9

14.5

12.9

4.9%

3.0

Source: Source: Bloomberg consensus, Edison Investment Research estimates. Prices as at 13 November 2017. Note: *Calendar year; **1 year EPS growth.

DCF: For our DCF we have run forecasts through to 2023 with revenue growth moderating to 4.0% by 2023 and a terminal growth rate of 2.0%. Our forecast EBITDA margin for 2019 is 33.3% (2018e: 34.9%) and we assume this falls to 28% by 2023 (due to the Gamesys fee increase and a slight rise in the marketing ratio), with a terminal margin of 26%. With a WACC of 10%, our DCF value is 1,132p/share. Flexing the terminal margin between 25% and 27% produces a range of 1,092-1,171p, while a 9-11% WACC range (and 26% terminal EBITDA margin) gives 1,031-1,391p.

Exhibit 12: Financial summary

 

 

£m

2015

2016

2017e

2018e

2019e

Year end 31 December

 

PROFIT & LOSS

 

Revenue

 

 

194.6

269.0

298.2

326.0

349.4

Cost of Sales

(101.4)

(130.7)

(144.3)

(162.1)

(179.7)

Gross Profit

93.3

138.3

153.9

163.9

169.8

EBITDA

 

 

70.4

102.2

107.4

113.8

116.4

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

70.1

101.6

105.4

111.9

114.5

Intangible Amortisation

(50.6)

(55.5)

(61.2)

(61.2)

(61.2)

Exceptional and other items **

(109.7)

(52.5)

(33.5)

1.0

0.4

Share based payments

(2.9)

(2.3)

(1.5)

(2.0)

(2.0)

Operating Profit

(93.1)

(8.7)

9.2

49.7

51.7

Net Interest

(24.0)

(35.9)

(40.3)

(28.0)

(22.0)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

46.1

65.6

65.2

83.9

92.5

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(114.2)

(40.7)

(30.1)

22.2

30.5

Tax

(0.5)

0.1

(0.7)

(2.5)

(4.5)

Profit After Tax (norm)

45.5

65.7

64.5

81.4

88.0

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(114.8)

(40.6)

(30.8)

19.7

26.0

 

 

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

61.2

71.2

74.1

74.5

74.5

EPS - normalised (p)

74.4

92.2

87.0

109.3

118.1

EPS - normalised and fully diluted (p)

 

73.0

88.4

86.4

108.3

117.0

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

(187.5)

(57.1)

(41.5)

26.5

34.8

Dividend per share (p)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

 

Gross Margin (%)

47.9

51.4

51.6

50.3

48.6

EBITDA Margin (%)

36.2

38.0

36.0

34.9

33.3

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

36.0

37.8

35.4

34.3

32.8

 

 

BALANCE SHEET

 

Fixed Assets

 

 

674.3

652.3

593.2

534.0

475.9

Intangible Assets

668.8

648.8

587.6

526.4

465.2

Tangible Assets

0.2

0.9

2.9

5.0

8.1

Other long term assets

5.3

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

Current Assets

 

 

63.9

139.0

71.7

72.1

99.9

Stocks

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Debtors (incl swaps)

25.6

62.0

28.0

32.0

34.0

Cash

31.8

68.5

34.7

30.1

54.9

Player balances

6.5

8.6

9.0

10.0

11.0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(54.3)

(154.9)

(106.5)

(68.5)

(66.5)

Creditors

(23.1)

(41.3)

(40.0)

(40.0)

(40.0)

Short term borrowings

(25.2)

(26.7)

(24.5)

(24.5)

(24.5)

Contingent consideration

(6.0)

(86.9)

(42.0)

(4.0)

(2.0)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(394.8)

(397.1)

(331.8)

(283.4)

(231.4)

Long term borrowings

(189.3)

(347.4)

(309.4)

(279.4)

(229.4)

Contingent consideration

(203.6)

(33.3)

(6.5)

(2.0)

0.0

Other long term liabilities

(2.0)

(16.4)

(16.0)

(2.0)

(2.0)

Net Assets

 

 

289.0

239.4

226.5

254.2

278.0

 

 

CASH FLOW

 

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

23.3

83.0

102.4

108.8

111.4

Net Interest

(24.0)

(35.9)

(32.0)

(28.0)

(22.0)

Tax

(0.5)

(1.2)

(2.5)

(2.5)

(4.5)

Capex

(2.5)

(2.5)

(4.0)

(4.0)

(5.0)

Acquisitions (inc earnouts)

(355.6)

(156.3)

(94.2)

(49.0)

(5.0)

Financing

203.7

(10.0)

36.7

0.0

0.0

Dividends

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

(155.6)

(122.9)

6.4

25.3

74.9

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

27.1

182.7

305.6

299.2

273.8

HP finance leases initiated

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

182.7

305.6

299.2

273.8

198.9

NPV of outstanding earnouts/ other

 

209.5

140.7

55.5

6.0

2.0

Currency swaps

 

 

(4.7)

(38.2)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Adjusted net debt

 

 

387.5

408.1

354.6

279.8

200.9

Source: Jackpotjoy accounts, Edison Investment Research

IR Contact details

Revenue by geography (12 months to September 2017)

1 Berkeley St Suite 302C

London W1J 8DJ UK +44 (0)7812 142118 www.jackpotjoyplc.com

IR Contact details

1 Berkeley St Suite 302C

London W1J 8DJ UK +44 (0)7812 142118 www.jackpotjoyplc.com

Revenue by geography (12 months to September 2017)

Management team

Executive Chairman: Neil Goulden

Group Managing Director: Simon Wykes

Neil was group MD, CEO and chairman of Gala Coral Group from 2001 to 2014. He has spent over 25 years at board level in leisure businesses including Ladbrokes, Compass, Allied Leisure and Gala Coral and he is currently senior independent director at Marston’s. He has held a number of industry and ministerial appointments and currently advises the government as a member of the Horserace Levy Board.

Simon Wykes was appointed as group managing director, effective 1 November 2017, having recently completed an external consultancy role with Ladbrokes Coral on their merger integration plans. He was previously CEO at Gala Leisure and MD at Gala Coral Group, where he oversaw the execution of a successful strategic turnaround plan of its bingo division. He also served as MD of Rank Group for over four years. He is also a non-executive director for both Leisure Electronics Ltd and Wexel Gaming.

CFO: Keith Laslop

Outgoing CEO: Andrew McIver

Keith joined Intertain as CFO at the time of the qualifying transaction in February 2014. Prior to that, he served as principal of Newcourt Capital, a private equity group. From 2004-08 he was CFO and then president of Prolexic Technologies (a DDoS mitigation provider) and from 2001-04 he was CFO and business development director of London-based Elixir Studios (a video-gaming software developer). Other previous roles include being a director (2008-11) and COO (June-September 2010) of Gerova Financial.

Andrew was CEO of Sportingbet from 2006-13 (when it was acquired by GVC) having previously been group finance director. He qualified as a chartered accountant with Arthur Andersen and held senior finance positions with Signet Group, Ladbrokes and House of Fraser before joining Sportingbet in 2001. Andrew will remain at JPJ until January 2018, to ensure a smooth transition.

Management team

Executive Chairman: Neil Goulden

Neil was group MD, CEO and chairman of Gala Coral Group from 2001 to 2014. He has spent over 25 years at board level in leisure businesses including Ladbrokes, Compass, Allied Leisure and Gala Coral and he is currently senior independent director at Marston’s. He has held a number of industry and ministerial appointments and currently advises the government as a member of the Horserace Levy Board.

Group Managing Director: Simon Wykes

Simon Wykes was appointed as group managing director, effective 1 November 2017, having recently completed an external consultancy role with Ladbrokes Coral on their merger integration plans. He was previously CEO at Gala Leisure and MD at Gala Coral Group, where he oversaw the execution of a successful strategic turnaround plan of its bingo division. He also served as MD of Rank Group for over four years. He is also a non-executive director for both Leisure Electronics Ltd and Wexel Gaming.

CFO: Keith Laslop

Keith joined Intertain as CFO at the time of the qualifying transaction in February 2014. Prior to that, he served as principal of Newcourt Capital, a private equity group. From 2004-08 he was CFO and then president of Prolexic Technologies (a DDoS mitigation provider) and from 2001-04 he was CFO and business development director of London-based Elixir Studios (a video-gaming software developer). Other previous roles include being a director (2008-11) and COO (June-September 2010) of Gerova Financial.

Outgoing CEO: Andrew McIver

Andrew was CEO of Sportingbet from 2006-13 (when it was acquired by GVC) having previously been group finance director. He qualified as a chartered accountant with Arthur Andersen and held senior finance positions with Signet Group, Ladbrokes and House of Fraser before joining Sportingbet in 2001. Andrew will remain at JPJ until January 2018, to ensure a smooth transition.

Principal shareholders

(%)

Intertain Jerseyco Ltd

16.0%

UBS

7.7%

HG Vora Capital Management

7.1%

Goldman Sachs

6.4%

Canacord Genuity

5.5%

Odey Asset Management

4.2%

Capita Financial Mgrs Ireland

3.8%

Companies named in this report

888 (888: LN); bet-at-home (ACX: ETR); Betsson (BETS-B: STO); GVC Holdings (GVC: LN); Kindred Group (KIND-SDB: STO); Ladbrokes Coral Group (LCL: LN); Paddy Power Betfair (PPB: LN); Playtech (PTEC: LN): Rank Group (RNK: LN); The Stars Group (TSGI: TSE); Stride Gaming (STR: LN); William Hill (WMH: LN)

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Jackpotjoy plc and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. 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The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. 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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Jackpotjoy plc and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Germany

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United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

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US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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