Hepion Pharmaceuticals — AMBITION trial shows positive biomarker data

Hepion Pharmaceuticals (US: HEPA)

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Research: Healthcare

Hepion Pharmaceuticals — AMBITION trial shows positive biomarker data

Recently, Hepion released top-line data from its AMBITION Phase IIa trial with CRV431, a cyclophilins inhibitor, in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) patients. All primary safety, tolerability and pharmacokinetics were met and support once-a-day dosing. The company plans to conduct a Phase IIb (ASCEND-NASH) trial this year in NASH patients with fibrosis levels 2 or 3 (F2 or F3). The ASCEND-NASH trial will be significantly larger with 300 patients enrolled. The primary endpoint will be a 1-point reduction in fibrosis score in liver biopsies.

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Written by

Carol Werther

Healthcare

Hepion Pharmaceuticals

AMBITION trial shows positive biomarker data

Clinical update

Pharma & biotech

3 August 2021

Price

$1.54

Market cap

US$117m

Net cash ($m) at end Q121

115.3

Shares in issue

76.2m

Free float

88.7%

Code

HEPA

Primary exchange

Nasdaq

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(22.2)

(11.0)

(63.4)

Rel (local)

(24.0)

(15.3)

(73.0)

52-week high/low

US$4.59

US$1.52

Business description

Hepion Pharmaceuticals is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing therapeutics for chronic liver disease. The lead product candidate is CRV431, a cyclophilin inhibitor being developed to treat NASH.

Next events

Additional data from the AMBISTION NASH trial

2021H221

Start of the Phase 2b ASCEND-NASH

2021Q421

Analyst

Carol Werther

+1 646 653 7026

Hepion Pharmaceuticals is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Recently, Hepion released top-line data from its AMBITION Phase IIa trial with CRV431, a cyclophilins inhibitor, in non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) patients. All primary safety, tolerability and pharmacokinetics were met and support once-a-day dosing. The company plans to conduct a Phase IIb (ASCEND-NASH) trial this year in NASH patients with fibrosis levels 2 or 3 (F2 or F3). The ASCEND-NASH trial will be significantly larger with 300 patients enrolled. The primary endpoint will be a 1-point reduction in fibrosis score in liver biopsies.

Year end

Revenue ($m)

PBT*
($m)

EPS*
($)

DPS
($)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/19

0.0

(7.9)

(3.42)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/20

0.0

(17.9)

(1.86)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/21e

0.0

(27.0)

(0.35)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/22e

0.0

(28.5)

(0.36)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortization of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Final AMBITION NASH trial results with high dose

Hepion reported that the high dose (225mg) demonstrated a statistically significant 21.1% reduction in alanine transaminases (ALT) levels versus baseline after 28 days. The company has already reported the 75mg dose showed a reduction in liver enzymes of 18.4%. Specifically, CRV431 was safe and well tolerated with pharmacokinetics that support once-a-day dosing, given the half-life is approximately 30 hours.

The ASCEND-NASH Phase IIb trial to begin in Q421

The objective of the study is to determine the efficacy of once daily (QD) oral dosing of CRV431 in biopsy proven NASH F2 and F3 patients compared to placebo. The trial is looking for a 1-point reduction in fibrosis score in liver biopsies (pathologist and AI read). The AI-POWR system is intended to identify biomarkers of CRV431 response from several data sources to identify the NASH patients that could be the best responders in a Phase III trial.

Valuation: Increased to $197.9m from $182.9m

We have adjusted our net present value (NPV) to reflect the positive results from the AMBITION trial. Our probability of success was increased from 15% to 20%. The equity value is now $197.9m, or $2.59 per diluted share, up from $2.40 per share previously. The company has net cash of $115.3m, which we believe should fund operations for the next three years. Despite the positive results, the shares were under pressure. This quarter, Hepion was added to the Russell Microcap Index.

AMBITION NASH Phase IIa trial details

This CRV431 trial enrolled patients with NASH and F2 or F3. At day 28 there was a demonstrated reduction in ALT for both the 75mg and 225mg doses, an early efficacy sign in F2 and F3 subjects. The company has reported that its clinical pharmacology group has already developed a population pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic, or PK-PD, model which predicts CRV431 blood concentration effect on ALT reductions, which it indicates is not usually possible at this early stage in drug development.

Most of the adverse events were mild and deemed unrelated. Body aches were possibly related. Probably related were constipation and a sensation of the heart beating strongly. There were no serious adverse events. Hepion uses its artificial intelligence platform (Al-POWR), which revealed significant interactions between the drug with collagen-regulating genes. As the AMBITION trial is evaluated further, we expect the company to release additional details of the data.

Exhibit 1: AMBITION biomarker results

Test

Placebo

CRV431 75mg

CRV431 225mg

 

n = 14

n = 12

n = 15

ALT (%)

-6.1% (±) 13.3 (mean ± SD)

-18.4 +/- 25.8 (mean ± SD)*

-21.1 ± 21.1 (mean ± SD)*

 

-5.2 (median)

-15.9 (median)

-20.0 (median)

 

 

Area under the ALT curve

1465.1 ± 810.9

1190.5 ± 712.1

859.9 ± 387.0**

AUC (IU*D/L)

 

Source: Hepion. Note: *Pooled 75mg and 225mg statistically significant versus placebo P<0.05, unpaired t-test. **Statistically significant versus placebo, p<0.05, ANOVA w/ Bonferroni Post-Hoc statistical analysis.

Design of the potential ASCEND-NASH Phase IIb trial

The company plans on beginning a Phase IIb ASCEND-NASH trial in Q421. This trial is expected to enrol 300 biopsy proven NASH subjects with advanced fibrosis (F2/F3). This a multi-centre, triple-blind, placebo-controlled (2:1) study. The current plan is to use the same two doses, 75mg and 225mg, for six months, followed by six months of CRV431 or placebo. There is a three-month observation period at the end of the 12 months. Additional data that will be obtained includes liver biopsies, MRI scans, Fibroscan, ALT, AST, Pro-C3, ELF-Score, fibrosis biomarkers, lipidomics, genomics and proteomics.

Exhibit 2: ASCEND-NASH trial design

Source: Hepion

Valuation

We have adjusted our NPV to reflect the positive results from the AMBITION trial. We changed our valuation by increasing the probability of success from 15% to 20%. The new equity valuation is $197.9m, up from $182.9m previously. Our valuation is now $2.59 per diluted share, up from $2.40 per share previously.

Exhibit 3: Valuation of Hepion

Program

Market

Prob. of success

Launch year

Peak revenue ($m)

Valuation
($m)

CRV431

US

20%

2026

370.8

51.87

Europe

20%

2027

373.0

42.53

R&D & milestones

(11.86)

Total

82.55

Net cash and equivalents (Q121)

115.32

Total firm value ($m)

197.87

Total basic shares (m)

76.23

Value per basic share ($)

2.60

Convertible preferred stock

0.02

Dilutive options and warrants (m)

0.69

Total diluted shares (m)

76.94

Value per diluted share ($)

2.59

Source: Hepion reports, Edison Investment Research

Financials

Hepion ended Q121 with $115.3m in net cash ($115.5m gross cash offset by $0.2m debt). On 16 February 2021, Hepion, conducted a public offering of 44,200,000 shares of Hepion common stock at a price of $2.00 per share. This resulted in net proceeds of approximately $82.1m, after deducting underwriting discount, commissions and offering expenses. We expect this to be enough cash to complete the ASCEND-NASH Phase IIb trial and sustain the company for the next three years. Hepion’s approximate burn rate is $5–7m quarterly; this is likely to increase as the ASCEND-NASH trial is underway. We estimate the company may need additional financing of $25m (in 2025).

This quarter, Hepion was included in the Russell Microcap Index.

Exhibit 4: Financial summary

$'000

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

31-December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Cost of Sales

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Profit

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

R&D

(3,184.1)

(11,997.3)

(21,000.0)

(22,250.0)

SG&A

(4,586.0)

(8,148.8)

(8,393.3)

(8,645.1)

EBITDA

 

 

(7,677.2)

(17,732.2)

(27,013.9)

(28,515.7)

Normalised operating profit

 

 

(7,703.9)

(17,766.7)

(27,013.9)

(28,515.7)

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

`

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Share-based payments

(66.2)

(2,379.4)

(2,379.4)

(2,379.4)

Reported operating profit

(7,770.1)

(20,146.1)

(29,393.3)

(30,895.1)

Net Interest and financial income

(175.9)

(177.3)

0.0

0.0

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(7,879.8)

(17,944.0)

(27,013.9)

(28,515.7)

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(7,946.0)

(20,323.4)

(29,393.3)

(30,895.1)

Reported tax

908.7

(30.6)

(44.2)

(46.5)

Profit After Tax (norm)

(6,978.7)

(17,971.0)

(27,054.6)

(28,558.6)

Profit After Tax (reported)

(7,037.3)

(20,353.9)

(29,437.5)

(30,941.6)

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Deemed Dividend

(5,442.9)

(5.3)

0.0

0.0

Discontinued operations

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net income (normalised)

(6,978.7)

(17,971.0)

(27,054.6)

(28,558.6)

Net income (reported)

(12,480.3)

(20,359.2)

(29,437.5)

(30,941.6)

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

2.0

9.7

76.2

80.0

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

(341.55)

(185.69)

(35.49)

(35.68)

EPS - diluted normalised ($)

 

 

(3.42)

(1.86)

(0.35)

(0.36)

EPS - basic reported ($)

 

 

(6.11)

(2.10)

(0.39)

(0.39)

Dividend ($)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

6,222.9

6,011.0

5,847.0

5,683.0

Intangible Assets

1,870.9

1,870.9

1,870.9

1,870.9

Tangible Assets

57.2

108.4

108.4

108.4

Investments & other

4,294.8

4,031.6

3,867.6

3,703.6

Current Assets

 

 

14,388.7

42,634.3

97,765.2

69,552.1

Stocks

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Debtors

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Cash & cash equivalents

13,923.0

40,726.8

95,857.7

67,644.7

Other

465.7

1,907.5

1,907.5

1,907.5

Current Liabilities

 

 

(1,609.5)

(4,661.8)

(4,563.2)

(4,748.4)

Creditors

(491.6)

(3,722.4)

(3,623.8)

(3,809.0)

Tax and social security

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Short term borrowings

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

(1,117.9)

(939.4)

(939.4)

(939.4)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(3,385.4)

(3,463.0)

(3,463.0)

(3,463.0)

Long term borrowings

0.0

(176.6)

(176.6)

(176.6)

Other long term liabilities

(3,385.4)

(3,286.5)

(3,286.5)

(3,286.5)

Net Assets

 

 

15,616.7

40,520.4

95,585.9

67,023.7

Minority interests

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Shareholders' equity

 

 

15,616.7

40,520.4

95,585.9

67,023.7

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

(7,677.2)

(17,732.2)

(27,013.9)

(28,515.7)

Working capital

(826.2)

1,628.8

(98.6)

185.2

Exceptional & other

29.7

(31.2)

164.0

164.0

Tax

908.7

(30.6)

(44.2)

(46.5)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

(7,565.1)

(16,165.2)

(26,992.7)

(28,213.0)

Capex

(51.5)

(88.0)

0.0

0.0

Acquisitions/disposals

0.0

2.2

0.0

0.0

Net interest

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Equity financing

19,826.5

42,878.3

82,123.6

0.0

Dividends

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

(1,119.4)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

11,090.5

26,627.3

55,130.9

(28,213.0)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(1,392.4)

(13,922.9)

(40,550.3)

(95,681.1)

FX

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other non-cash movements

1,440.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(13,922.9)

(40,550.3)

(95,681.1)

(67,468.1)

Source: Company reports, Edison Investment Research

Source:

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Hepion Pharmaceuticals and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Hepion Pharmaceuticals. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Source:

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Hepion Pharmaceuticals and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Hepion Pharmaceuticals. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Research: Consumer

Loungers — On a roll

With Loungers trading ‘fantastically well’ and its organic growth strategy ‘never looking more relevant’, management is pulling no punches. Since full reopening on 17 May, its first nine weeks’ like-for-like sales growth of 24% on the same period of 2019 shows material market outperformance (restaurants +8% like-for-like in June, according to Coffer CGA Business Tracker) and sustains the buoyancy of its initial month (+27%). Yet more striking is Loungers’ resumption of its historical run rate of 25 openings a year (seven in the latest quarter) with clear scope to accelerate (already filling FY23 pipeline) and at increasingly attractive sites, given the boost from pandemic fallout and strong finances (c £30m current liquidity). Staffing challenges should be mitigated by ensuring that Loungers remains a hospitality employer of choice.

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