14% revenue growth despite COVID-19 headwinds

AFT Pharmaceuticals 22 November 2021 Update
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AFT Pharmaceuticals

14% revenue growth despite COVID-19 headwinds

Financial update

Pharma & biotech

22 November 2021

Price

NZ$4.91

Market cap

NZ$514m

NZ$0.70/US$

Net debt (NZ$m) at 30 September 2021

32.6

Shares in issue

104.7m

Free float

26.8%

Code

AFT

Primary exchange

NZX

Secondary exchange

ASX

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

19.8

9.8

(5.6)

Rel (local)

22.9

12.8

(4.7)

52-week high/low

NZ$5.51

NZ$4.00

Business description

AFT Pharmaceuticals is a specialty pharmaceutical company that operates primarily in Australasia but has product distribution agreements across the globe. The company’s product portfolio includes prescription and over-the-counter drugs to treat a range of conditions and a proprietary nebuliser.

Next events

US Maxigesic oral and IV approval

2022

Analysts

Maxim Jacobs

+1 646 653 7027

Jyoti Prakash

+91 981 880 393

AFT Pharmaceuticals is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

AFT Pharmaceuticals recently reported its results for H122. Operating revenue grew strongly by 14% year-on-year to NZ$55.5m, despite the impact of COVID-19 across the business (extended lockdowns in Australia and delayed launches in international markets were the biggest COVID-related headwinds). Reported group operating profit was NZ$5.5m compared to NZ$2.4m in the same period a year ago. Importantly, AFT is continuing to guide for operating profit of NZ$18–23m in FY22.

Year end

Revenue (NZ$m)

PBT*
(NZ$m)

EPS*
(NZ$)

DPS
(NZ$)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/20

105.6

3.4

0.03

0.0

N/M

N/A

03/21

113.1

8.2

0.07

0.0

70.1

N/A

03/22e

130.2

16.6

0.15

0.0

32.7

N/A

03/23e

150.3

29.4

0.22

0.0

22.3

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Maxigesic oral and IV approvals on track for CY22

AFT previously filed for FDA approval of both the oral and intravenous (iv) forms of Maxigesic. The company expects the FDA to approve the oral version at some point in CY22 and there is a 30 June 2022 PDUFA date for the iv form. With regards to Maxigesic IV, AFT licensed the product in April to Hikma Pharmaceuticals, the third-largest US supplier of generic injectable medicines by volume. The terms of the agreement include up to US$18.8m in upfront, regulatory and commercial milestones and a profit share (US$3.6m was received in H122).

Maxigesic launched in 46 countries

Maxigesic tablets are now sold and launched in 46 countries, up from 43 at the end of March 2021. Recent launches include Switzerland and Greece. The tablets are registered in 51 different countries. Maxigesic IV has been launched in five countries (launched recently in Germany and Austria) but registered in 29.

COVID-19 continues to affect the business

Extended COVID-related lockdowns in New South Wales and Victoria hampered over-the-counter (OTC) sales in Australia. Additionally, the Maxigesic IV launches in Germany and Austria were hampered by COVID-19 restrictions on distributors accessing hospitals.

Valuation: NZ$671m or NZ$6.41 per share

We are increasing our valuation from NZ$644m or NZ$6.15 per share to NZ$671m or NZ$6.41 per share, mainly due to rolling forward our NPV and lower net debt. AFT reported NZ$5.9m in cash and NZ$38.5m in debt at the end of the half year. The company has stated that it will consider a dividend once it has reached a net debt target of NZ$25–30m and has met earnings guidance.

H122 results

AFT reported revenue of NZ$55.5m for the first half of FY22, the period ending 30 September 2021. This represents a 14% increase over the prior year. Revenue in Australia was up 2% to NZ$29.2m. The OTC channel, which represents approximately 59% of revenue for Australia, grew 2% and was hindered by COVID-19 lockdowns in New South Wales and Victoria. These lockdowns delayed a number of product launches, which will now occur in H222. Maxigesic sales in Australia were also affected by COVID-19 lockdowns but still grew 18%. The hospital channel, which represents 29% of sales in Australia, fell by 1% due to lower antibiotic sales following a surge last year at the height of the pandemic. The prescription channel, which represents 12% of the country’s sales, grew 13% thanks to new product introductions. Operating profits for Australia rose to NZ$3.6m from NZ$3.2m in H121.

New Zealand revenue was up 15% to NZ$15.8m. The OTC channel (54% of New Zealand sales) grew 13% to NZ$8.6m, reflecting a return to more normal sales growth. Vitamin C Lipo-Sachets and Maxigesic, in particular, helped drive growth in the segment. The company has stated that OTC sales have recently dropped off somewhat due to a re-introduction of lockdowns in Auckland but it expects this to be transitory. The hospital channel (17% of sales) grew 23% to NZ$2.7m due to strong antibiotic sales. The prescription channel grew by 15% to NZ$4.6m. The operating loss (including head office costs) for this region was NZ$1.8m compared to a loss of NZ$1.4m in the same period last year. Excluding head office costs, the region booked an operating profit which increased to NZ$2.0m from NZ$1.7m in the prior-year period.

Asia revenue increased by 32% to NZ$2.9m. The OTC segment grew 11% due to increased online sales to China as well as sales to Hong Kong. The hospital and prescription channels grew 32% due to strong anti-bacterial sales. Operating profit declined to NZ$0.4m from NZ$0.7m due to greater investment in marketing support.

Exhibit 1: H122 results by region

NZ$000s

Revenues H122

Revenues H121

Operating profit before tax H122

Operating profit before tax H121

Australia

29,201

28,552

3,620

3,195

New Zealand

15,815

13,709

(1,807)*

(1,425)*

Asia

2,905

2,198

416

721

Rest of world

7,592

4,362

3,262

(69)

Total

55,513

48,821

5,491

2,422

Source: AFT Pharmaceuticals. Note: *New Zealand profit before tax includes head office expenses.

Rest of world revenues grew by 74% to NZ$7.6m, thanks to a substantial increase in licence income (to NZ$4.8m from NZ$0.3m in the same period last year), largely resulting from licence payments from Hikma for Maxigesic IV. Product sales to licensees and distributors declined 35% to NZ$2.6m as slower sales last year due to the pandemic led to a longer period of time to work through inventory. Operating profit was NZ$3.3m, up from a NZ$0.1m loss in the same period a year ago, mainly due to the Hikma payments.

Maxigesic tablets are now sold and launched in 46 countries, up from 43 at the end of March 2021. Recent launches include Switzerland and Greece. The tablets are registered in 51 different countries. Maxigesic IV is launched in five countries (launched in Germany and Austria recently) but registered in 29. Note that the Maxigesic IV launches in Germany and Austria were hampered by COVID-19 restrictions on distributors accessing hospitals.

AFT previously filed for FDA approval of both the oral and iv forms of Maxigesic. The company expects the FDA to approve the oral version at some point in CY22 and there is a 30 June 2022 PDUFA date for the iv form. With regards to Maxigesic IV, AFT licensed the product to Hikma Pharmaceuticals, the third-largest US supplier of generic injectable medicines by volume, in April. The terms of the agreement include up to US$18.8m in upfront, regulatory and commercial milestones and a profit share. US$3.6m was received in H122 and was related to signing the agreement and filing for FDA approval. An additional US$7.5m in payments will be due on reaching certain milestones leading up to and including the first commercial sale. The remainder of the milestones will be based on sales targets in the US.

With regards to the NasoSURF nasal drug delivery device (intended for medications aimed at a patient’s sinus areas), clinical studies are planned for FY22. The 120-patient Pascomer Phase II/III clinical study has completed enrolment despite COVID-related difficulties and data are expected around the middle of CY22. As a reminder, Pascomer is a topical treatment for facial angiofibromas.

Valuation

We are increasing our valuation from NZ$644m or NZ$6.15 per share to NZ$671m or NZ$6.41 per share, mainly due to rolling forward our NPV and lower net debt.

Exhibit 2: DCF sensitivity table (NZ$/share)

Terminal EBIT margin

Terminal revenue growth

30%

34%

36%

40%

45%

-2.0%

4.29

4.66

4.84

5.21

5.67

-1.0%

4.53

4.93

5.13

5.53

6.03

0.0%

4.81

5.25

5.47

5.91

6.46

1.0%

5.15

5.64

5.89

6.37

6.98

2.0%

5.58

6.13

6.41

6.95

7.64

3.0%

6.13

6.76

7.07

7.70

8.48

4.0%

6.87

7.60

7.96

8.69

9.61

5.0%

7.90

8.77

9.21

10.08

11.18

Source: Edison Investment Research

Financials

We have slightly decreased our revenue estimates for FY22 and FY23 by NZ$0.7m, mainly due to lower estimates for Australia, although this was partially offset by higher estimates for Asia. Additionally, we have increased our SG&A estimates for FY22 and FY23 by NZ$0.9m and NZ$1.0m, respectively, due to a higher run rate. We have also increased R&D expense forecasts by NZ$2.7m for both years as the company continues to invest in R&D. Finally, due to net loss carry forwards we have reduced our tax liability estimates for FY22 and FY23 by NZ$1.8m and NZ$2.0m, respectively. We believe the company will be accruing tax liabilities closer to the statutory rate in FY24.

The company reported NZ$5.9m in cash and NZ$38.5m in debt at the end of the half year. We believe AFT will be able to pay down the debt from operating cash flow and does not need additional long-term financing (although it may need to use some short-term facilities for working capital needs). The company has stated that it will consider a dividend once it has reached a net debt target of NZ$25–30m and has met earnings guidance.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

NZ$000

2020

2021

2022e

2023e

March

NZ GAAP

NZ GAAP

NZ GAAP

NZ GAAP

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

105,597

113,105

130,213

150,348

Cost of Sales

(57,332)

(64,364)

(66,807)

(72,095)

Gross Profit

48,265

48,741

63,406

78,253

EBITDA

 

 

12,522

11,813

20,511

32,987

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

11,708

10,994

19,692

32,168

Intangible Amortisation

(286)

(286)

(286)

(286)

Exceptionals

9,784

0

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

Operating Profit

21,206

10,708

19,406

31,882

Net Interest

(8,329)

(2,821)

(3,073)

(2,731)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

3,379

8,173

16,619

29,437

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

12,877

7,887

16,333

29,151

Tax

(185)

(105)

(450)

(6,122)

Profit After Tax (norm)

3,194

8,068

16,169

23,315

Profit After Tax (reported)

12,692

7,782

15,883

23,029

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

97.3

103.3

104.7

104.7

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

3.3

7.1

15.4

22.3

EPS - (reported) (NZ$)

 

 

0.12

0.07

0.15

0.22

Dividend per share (c)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Gross Margin (%)

45.7

43.1

48.7

52.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

11.9

10.4

15.8

21.9

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

11.1

9.7

15.1

21.4

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

31,716

37,230

42,142

47,477

Intangible Assets

26,984

32,720

37,918

43,116

Tangible Assets

315

305

402

539

Investments

4,417

4,205

3,823

3,823

Current Assets

 

 

55,336

67,902

73,650

90,139

Stocks

22,734

33,654

34,129

37,542

Debtors

25,969

31,039

25,705

24,032

Cash

6,119

3,209

13,370

28,119

Other

514

0

446

446

Current Liabilities

 

 

(25,102)

(32,102)

(25,422)

(25,775)

Creditors

(22,993)

(26,404)

(22,981)

(25,775)

Short term borrowings

(2,000)

(5,161)

(2,299)

0

Other

(109)

(537)

(142)

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(44,695)

(36,442)

(39,190)

(35,190)

Long term borrowings

(41,200)

(33,200)

(36,200)

(32,200)

Other long term liabilities

(3,495)

(3,242)

(2,990)

(2,990)

Net Assets

 

 

17,255

36,588

51,180

76,651

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

21,999

4,292

20,963

34,040

Net Interest

(6,936)

(3,437)

(3,073)

(2,731)

Tax

(185)

(105)

(450)

(6,122)

Capex

(6,562)

(6,231)

(6,398)

(6,439)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

0

0

Financing

3

11,673

262

0

Dividends

(566)

(188)

0

0

Net Cash Flow

7,753

6,004

11,303

18,749

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

34,834

37,081

35,152

25,129

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Other

(10,000)

(4,075)

(1,280)

2,299

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

37,081

35,152

25,129

4,081

Source: company reports, Edison Investment Research


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This report has been commissioned by AFT Pharmaceuticals and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by AFT Pharmaceuticals. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

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This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

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1185 Avenue of the Americas

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General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by AFT Pharmaceuticals and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by AFT Pharmaceuticals. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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