Radical change in the financial markets – an interview with Gervais Williams

On 22 October, Edison Group held an event in partnership with CrowdX to hear the investment views of Gervais Williams, head of equities at Premier Miton Group and a veteran small cap investor. We began our conversation with Gervais by reflecting on some of the predictions he made in The Retreat of Globalisation, which he published in late 2016. We discussed which of those predictions have come to bear and his view of the world today. Gervais believes China is going ex-growth, bond and equity valuations are starting to normalise, and corporate profit margins are likely to erode. While on a 25-year view he expects asset markets to flatten, as they have done in Japan. Gervais remains extremely bullish on UK equities and believes that the rotation from growth to income and value will make the UK more attractive to investors. ‘Old school’ companies (ie those that produce income that compounds over time) are key to the UK’s outperformance, in his view. He also believes that in an environment where debt is becoming more expensive and capital more scarce, listed companies are more attractive as they create opportunities for industries to consolidate and grow.