TransContainer

Moscow: TRCN

RUB120467.6m market cap

RUB8715 last close

TransContainer owns and operates rail freight assets across Russia. Its assets comprise rail flatcars, handling terminals and trucks, through which it provides integrated end-to-end freight forwarding services to its customers.

Investment summary

Following the sale of a majority stake in TransContainer to Delo Group as a result of the planned auction (at c RUB8,680/share), there is a legal requirement for Delo Group to launch a tender offer to minority shareholders. TransContainer’s Q319 results showed strong earnings growth, albeit at lower rates than previous quarters. We have slightly reduced our DCF-based valuation to RUB9,100/share.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (RUBm)
EBITDA (RUBm)
PBT (RUBm)
EPS (fd) (RUB)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2017A 27782.0 10252.0 8147.0 448.2 1944.4 1135.3
2018A 31288.0 13342.0 10263.0 560.9 1553.8 849.1
2019E 40229.0 21542.0 17248.0 983.9 885.8 538.8
2020E 47858.0 27599.0 22021.0 1252.0 696.1 421.8
Industry outlook

Containerisation is a structural trend for the Russian market and should support revenue and profit growth for TransContainer, in our view. Currently, only c 7% of Russia’s potentially containerisable rail cargo is transported in containers and, although this figure rose from 2.2% in 2001, it is still much lower than in the US (18%), India (16%) and Europe (14%).

Last updated on 12/02/2020
Sector
Industrials
Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net debt (RUBm) 7661
Forecast gearing ratio (%) 14
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual 3.0 0.4 74.1
Relative* 4.3 (5.3) 39.2
52-week high/low RUB9025.0/RUB4935.0
*% relative to local index
Key management
Alexander Shakhanov Deputy Director for Capital Markets & IR