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Phoenix Spree Deutschland

LSE: PSDL

Market Cap£230m

Last Close 250p

Phoenix Spree Deutschland is a long-term investor in mid-market residential property in Berlin, targeting reliable income and capital growth. Its core strategy is to acquire unmodernised apartment blocks that may be improved to the benefit of tenants, generating attractive returns for shareholders.

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Investment summary

Phoenix Spree Deutschland’s (PSDL’s) H122 performance was robust. Rents, property values and NAV all increased. NAV total return was 2.2% and DPS declared was unchanged. PBT was lower (€17.0m vs €20.4m in H121), but the continuing Berlin re-letting premium (33.7%) and premium to book value on condominium notarisations (19.2%) highlight the considerable value embedded in PSD’s portfolio even though volumes weakened (€3m vs €4.3m in H121) as a result of higher interest rates and increasing the cost of home ownership. PSD expects that condominium sales for the full year will be materially lower than in FY21, reducing cash flow. Rising bond yields will likely be reflected in asset values. Despite these headwinds, demographic trends remain positive, and PSD continues to benefit from significant rent reversion. With 76% of units designated as such, from a medium-term recovery in condominium sales. Gearing is modest (36% LTV) and interest costs are fixed at 2.1% until 2026. Our estimates are under review.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (€m)
EBITDA (€m)
PBT (€m)
EPS (c)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2020A 23.9 48.3 37.9 30.1 9.6 42.2
2021A 25.8 45.4 45.3 39.3 7.3 34.2
2022E 26.2 18.7 17.1 15.2 18.9 125.7
2023E 27.7 17.0 9.4 8.7 33.1 34.9
Industry outlook

Demographic trends within the Berlin market remain positive, supporting growth in free market rents. Rising interest rates, inflation, and economic uncertainty is depressing private buyer and institutional investment demand, creating a headwind for capital values.

Last updated on 30/11/2022
Content on Phoenix Spree Deutschland
Phoenix Spree Deutschland – Well positioned for market turbulence
Real Estate | research Update | 28 October 2022
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Phoenix Spree Deutschland – Progress in a more challenging environment
Real Estate | research Flash note | 8 August 2022
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Phoenix Spree Deutschland – Positive return to core strategy
Real Estate | research Outlook | 12 May 2022
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Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net cash (€m) 297.2
Forecast gearing ratio (%) N/A
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual (5.3) (16.4) (36.9)
Relative* (11.3) (19.1) (38.6)
52-week high/low 402.0p/244.0p
*% relative to local index
Key management
Richard Collins COO
Stuart Young Partner, head of public markets