KEFI Gold and Copper

LN: KEFI

£44.1m market cap

1.78p last close

KEFI Gold and Copper is an exploration and development company focused on gold and copper deposits in the highly prospective Arabian-Nubian Shield – principally the Tulu Kapi project in Ethiopia, as well as Hawiah Copper and Gold and Jibal Qutman Gold in Saudi Arabia.

Investment summary

KEFI is in the process of finalising the specifics of the remaining funding sources for Tulu Kapi ahead of major mine site works and production in Q422. Among other things, this may involve a higher beneficial interest in the project for KEFI (eg 65% versus 45%) and production of 190koz pa (cf 140koz pa). The Ethiopian central bank has approved the project’s debt financing structure and community resettlement was authorised in January 2020.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (£m)
EBITDA (£m)
PBT (£m)
EPS (p)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2018A 0.0 (4.1) (4.6) (1.0) N/A N/A
2019A 0.0 (2.4) (3.5) (0.6) N/A N/A
2020E 0.0 (3.2) (3.4) (0.2) N/A N/A
2021E 0.0 (1.0) (4.6) (0.1) N/A 129.6
Industry outlook

Prior to November’s equity raising (which increased the number of shares by 14.2%), we calculated that KEFI was capable of generating free cash flow of c £65m pa, which we valued at 4.05p/share. However, this excluded Hawiah (19.3Mt at 1.86% CuE), on which KEFI has completed a recent preliminary economic assessment showing a post-tax NPV(8%) of US$96m (1.37p/share attributable). It also excluded any beneficial interest for KEFI in Tulu Kapi above 45% (potentially 1.35p/share) and also the value of its other assets (potentially 3.83–8.74p/share).

Last updated on 29/07/2020
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Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net debt (£m) 40
Forecast gearing ratio (%) 62
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual 24.2 153 120.6
Relative* 25.4 160 164.5
52-week high/low 10.9p/4.1p
*% relative to local index
Key management
Harry Anagnostaras-Adams CEO
Jeff Rayner Managing Director
laki Catsamas Group financial controller

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