ArborGen Holdings


Market CapNZD$109.9m

Last Close NZD$0.22

ArborGen Holdings (formerly Rubicon) is an NZX-listed investment company. Its subsidiary ArborGen is the world’s largest integrated developer, commercial manufacturer and supplier of advanced forestry seedlings with operations in the United States, Brazil and Australasia.

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Investment summary

ArborGen’s underlying H1 trading performance was robust with good control of opex leading to a reduced seasonal EBITDA loss despite market challenges. The US selling season started well in H2 and although the 13 January update noted that sales had been slower than previously anticipated at that time higher than anticipated COVID-19 grant income has recently led to full year US GAAP EBITDA guidance being raised by c US$1m to US$11.0–11.5m. An increase in supply of higher-value seedlings in the US remains on track and is expected to drive group earnings higher from FY22. We will review our estimates once FY21 results are announced in late May.

Y/E Mar
Revenue (US$m)
PBT (US$m)
EPS (c)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2019A 49.1 4.6 4.7 1.0 15.9 19.2
2020A 56.9 7.7 6.0 1.4 11.3 16.5
2021E 54.7 7.1 9.4 2.0 7.9 7.0
2022E 65.3 12.1 12.3 2.5 6.4 6.6
Industry outlook

Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, the economic growth outlook in each of its core countries, the US, Brazil, New Zealand and Australia, was either good or improving, according to OECD data. At this point, the primary end-markets served by its plantation forestry customer base (ie construction and the pulp and paper industries) were in a positive cyclical phase.

Last updated on 21/06/2021
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Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net debt (US$m) 27.4
Forecast gearing ratio (%) 19
Price performance
Actual 25.7 29.4 31.0
Relative* 25.6 30.1 20.6
52-week high/low NZ$0.2/NZ$0.1
*% relative to local index
Key management
Luke Moriarty CEO
Alex Brown CFO
Sharon Ludher-Chandra Business Development Executive