Currency in NOK
Last close As at 25/03/2023
NOK106.80
▲ 1.40 (1.33%)
Market capitalisation
NOK3,625m
Research: Healthcare
Ultimovacs’ busy clinical programme for UV1, a universal cancer vaccine, continues to progress on schedule as highlighted in the company’s Q222 report. UV1 is part of five separate Phase II trials in various cancer indications, all of which are expected to report top-line data over 2023/24. R&D related expenses in Q222 were NOK30.0m, substantially below estimates, as some costs from the period were delayed. We expect expenses to increase in H222 as these delayed costs are recognised and the LUNGVAC trial (UV1 plus pembrolizumab) in non-small cell-lung cancer begins to enrol patients in Q322. At end-H122 Ultimovacs had a net cash position of NOK486.3m (the company has no debt), which we anticipate will fund operations into H124, past a handful of key readouts from the pipeline in 2023. We update our valuation of Ultimovacs to NOK7.2bn or NOK209/share (NOK6.90bn or NOK202/share previously).
Ultimovacs |
UV1 development funded past key readouts |
H222 results |
Pharma and biotech |
19 August 2022 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
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Ultimovacs’ busy clinical programme for UV1, a universal cancer vaccine, continues to progress on schedule as highlighted in the company’s Q222 report. UV1 is part of five separate Phase II trials in various cancer indications, all of which are expected to report top-line data over 2023/24. R&D related expenses in Q222 were NOK30.0m, substantially below estimates, as some costs from the period were delayed. We expect expenses to increase in H222 as these delayed costs are recognised and the LUNGVAC trial (UV1 plus pembrolizumab) in non-small cell-lung cancer begins to enrol patients in Q322. At end-H122 Ultimovacs had a net cash position of NOK486.3m (the company has no debt), which we anticipate will fund operations into H124, past a handful of key readouts from the pipeline in 2023. We update our valuation of Ultimovacs to NOK7.2bn or NOK209/share (NOK6.90bn or NOK202/share previously).
Year end |
Revenue |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/20 |
0.0 |
(120.6) |
(3.98) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/21 |
0.0 |
(164.7) |
(5.09) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/22e |
0.0 |
(213.5) |
(6.24) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/23e |
0.0 |
(219.1) |
(6.40) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Pipeline momentum continues
Notably in H122, the INITIUM Phase II trial in malignant melanoma completed enrolment in June, after the company reported positive two-year survival data from a previous Phase I trial in the same indication. Top-line data from INITIUM (and NIPU) are expected in H123. For a more in-depth update on Ultimovacs’ development pipeline, see our recent update note.
Costs below expectation but expected to rise
As H122 R&D expenses were lower than our expectations, we have adjusted our estimated R&D costs for FY22/23. We believe our new estimates incorporate an increase in patient enrolment in active Phase II trials, while also considering the commencement of enrolment in the LUNGVAC trial in Q322 and delayed expenses to be recognised in H222. We continue to see Ultimovacs’ development strategy of utilising investigator-led trials as an effective method to lower R&D costs, compared to self-run studies.
Valuation: NOK7.2bn or NOK209/share
We update our valuation of Ultimovacs to NOK7.2bn or NOK209/share (NOK6.90bn or NOK202/share previously), including a net cash position at end-H122 of NOK486.3m. We have rolled our model forward and updated our FX rate assumptions. Considering H122 results, we have revised our financial estimates, but our underlying long-term assumptions remain unchanged. With a cash position of NOK486.3m at H122 and cash burn rate of NOK78.4m in H122, we estimate a cash runway for the company into H124, past key clinical readouts.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
Accounts: IFRS, Yr end: December, NOK: Thousands |
|
2019A |
2020A |
2021A |
2022E |
2023E |
Income statement |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total revenues |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Cost of sales |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Gross profit |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
SG&A (expenses) |
|
(20,160) |
(50,989) |
(61,916) |
(63,464) |
(65,050) |
R&D costs |
|
(43,995) |
(70,438) |
(99,213) |
(148,820) |
(151,796) |
Other income/(expense) |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Exceptionals and adjustments |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Reported EBITDA |
|
(64,155) |
(121,427) |
(161,129) |
(212,283) |
(216,846) |
Depreciation and amortisation |
|
(2,063) |
(2,720) |
(2,703) |
(2,537) |
(2,454) |
Reported Operating Profit/(loss) |
|
(66,218) |
(124,147) |
(163,832) |
(214,820) |
(219,300) |
Finance income/(expense) |
|
5,051 |
3,593 |
(889) |
1,352 |
232 |
Other income/(expense) |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Exceptionals and adjustments |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Reported PBT |
|
(61,167) |
(120,554) |
(164,721) |
(213,468) |
(219,068) |
Income tax expense |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Reported net income |
|
(61,167) |
(120,554) |
(164,721) |
(213,468) |
(219,068) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Basic average number of shares, m |
|
22.9 |
30.3 |
32.4 |
34.2 |
34.2 |
Basic EPS (NOK) |
|
(2.67) |
(3.98) |
(5.09) |
(6.24) |
(6.40) |
Diluted EPS (NOK) |
|
(2.67) |
(3.98) |
(5.09) |
(6.24) |
(6.40) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Balance sheet |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Property, plant and equipment |
|
536 |
377 |
212 |
194 |
176 |
Intangible assets |
|
55,519 |
64,551 |
60,088 |
57,851 |
55,698 |
Other non-current assets |
|
3,523 |
3,630 |
1,951 |
1,951 |
1,951 |
Total non-current assets |
|
70,429 |
80,353 |
73,282 |
71,027 |
68,856 |
Cash and equivalents |
|
399,607 |
440,925 |
574,168 |
346,120 |
149,269 |
Trade and other receivables |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Other current assets |
|
8,004 |
8,438 |
8,087 |
8,087 |
8,087 |
Total current assets |
|
407,611 |
449,363 |
582,255 |
354,207 |
157,356 |
Non-current loans and borrowings |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Total non-current liabilities |
|
13,152 |
13,870 |
11,488 |
11,488 |
11,488 |
Trade and other payables |
|
11,768 |
8,611 |
22,555 |
6,038 |
14,297 |
Other current liabilities |
|
7,164 |
17,149 |
26,714 |
14,609 |
14,609 |
Total current liabilities |
|
20,257 |
27,467 |
50,897 |
22,275 |
30,534 |
Equity attributable to company |
|
444,632 |
488,380 |
593,153 |
391,473 |
184,192 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cashflow statement |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating Profit/(loss) |
|
(66,218) |
(124,147) |
(163,832) |
(214,820) |
(219,300) |
Depreciation and amortisation |
|
2,063 |
2,720 |
2,703 |
2,537 |
2,454 |
Other adjustments |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Movements in working capital |
|
(1,862) |
6,395 |
23,860 |
(28,622) |
8,259 |
Interest paid / received |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Income taxes paid |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Cash from operations (CFO) |
|
(62,989) |
(108,224) |
(125,827) |
(227,765) |
(196,568) |
Capex |
|
(172) |
(282) |
(85) |
(282) |
(282) |
Acquisitions & disposals net |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Other investing activities |
|
4,490 |
(455) |
3,062 |
0 |
0 |
Cash used in investing activities (CFIA) |
|
4,318 |
(737) |
2,977 |
(282) |
(282) |
Net proceeds from issue of shares |
|
344,582 |
152,933 |
261,852 |
0 |
0 |
Movements in debt |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Other financing activities |
|
(1,579) |
(1,916) |
(1,895) |
0 |
0 |
Cash flow from financing activities |
|
343,003 |
151,017 |
259,957 |
0 |
0 |
Increase/(decrease) in cash and equivalents |
|
284,067 |
41,317 |
133,244 |
(228,047) |
(196,850) |
Cash and equivalents at beginning of period |
|
115,539 |
399,606 |
440,923 |
574,167 |
346,120 |
Cash and equivalents at end of period |
|
399,606 |
440,923 |
574,167 |
346,120 |
149,269 |
Net (debt) cash |
|
399,607 |
440,925 |
574,168 |
346,120 |
149,269 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source: Ultimovacs’ company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Healthcare
Ultimovacs has announced the extension of its Phase I TENDU trial in prostate cancer following positive interim safety results. The study has so far enrolled nine patients and, following review by the trial’s drug safety monitoring board, no safety concerns in any of the three dose cohorts were identified. The trial will now recruit up to three additional patients to be treated at a highest-dose level (960 mcg). The TENDU study is investigating the use of the company’s proprietary Tetanus-Epitope Targeting (TET) cancer vaccine technology in treating prostate cancer patients who have relapsed after radical prostatectomy. The primary goal is to assess the safety of the TET-derived vaccine, therefore, in our view, these positive results are highly encouraging. With much of Ultimovacs’ recent activity focused on the development of its lead cancer vaccine candidate (UV1), we believe the company’s TET vaccine programme could provide future value. We continue to value Ultimovacs at NOK6.90bn, or NOK202/share.
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