Games Workshop Group — Revenue growth against a tough comparative

Games Workshop Group (LSE: GAW)

Currency in GBP

Last close As at 26/05/2023


70.00 (0.76%)

Market capitalisation


Research: Consumer

Games Workshop Group — Revenue growth against a tough comparative

Games Workshop’s (GAW’s) trading update indicates sales growth for Q122 (three months to 29 August 2021) is in line with management expectations. Management has highlighted pressure on freight costs and currency exchange rates given GAW’s high international exposure. The declared dividend of 25p per share brings the year-to-date total to 65p. Our forecasts for FY22 and FY23 are unchanged. Our DCF-based valuation remains £129 per share.

Russell Pointon

Written by

Russell Pointon

Director, Consumer


Games Workshop

Revenue growth against a tough comparative

Q122 trading update

Consumer goods

16 September 2021



Market cap


Net cash (£m) at 31 May 2021 (excluding lease liabilities)


Shares in issue


Free float




Primary exchange


Secondary exchange


Share price performance

Business description

Games Workshop is a leading international specialist designer, manufacturer and multi-channel retailer of miniatures, scenery, artwork and fiction for tabletop miniature games set in its fantasy Warhammer worlds.


Russell Pointon

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Sara Welford

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Games Workshop is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Games Workshop’s (GAW’s) trading update indicates sales growth for Q122 (three months to 29 August 2021) is in line with management expectations. Management has highlighted pressure on freight costs and currency exchange rates given GAW’s high international exposure. The declared dividend of 25p per share brings the year-to-date total to 65p. Our forecasts for FY22 and FY23 are unchanged. Our DCF-based valuation remains £129 per share.

Year end

Revenue (£m)



































Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

In the comparative period of Q121, GAW reported revenue growth of c 15% to £90m, which accelerated to c 38% growth in Q221 and 37% in H221, due to the launch of the ninth edition of 40K in July 2020, therefore revenue growth in Q122 is encouraging against the strong performance last year. Our last report highlighted how the new editions lead to multi-year revenue growth. Our revenue forecast for FY22 of £376.9m represents year-on-year growth of c 7%, a lower rate of growth than recent years due to the phasing and scale of product releases.

GAW’s broad international revenues leave it exposed to foreign exchange rate movements. In FY21 revenues were split UK 23%, Continental Europe 23%, North America 41% and Asia Pacific/rest of world 12% (subject to rounding). Year to date, the average U$1.39/£ compares with U$1.29/£ through H121 and €1.17/£ compares with €1.11/£ in H121, representing currency headwinds of c 8% and 5%, respectively. Our last forecast update assumed averages for FY22 of U$1.40/£ and €1.17/£, respectively, broadly in line with current exchange rates.

The declared dividend of 25p per share brings the year-to-date total to 65p, versus 80p at this stage last year, following two dividends of 30p and 50p. GAW’s dividend policy is to return ‘truly surplus cash’ to shareholders, therefore a dividend is declared when the cash is available. It does not have a progressive dividend policy.

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