Currency in EUR
Last close As at 02/06/2023
EUR0.57
▲ 0.01 (1.79%)
Market capitalisation
EUR28m
Research: Healthcare
Nicox’s Q222 update confirms its overall business plan and its expectation that primary efficacy data for the Mont Blanc Phase III study of lead candidate NCX-470 for the treatment of open-angle glaucoma and ocular hypertension will be released in November 2022. The Mont Blanc data release is potentially a key catalyst for the company, given NCX-470’s opportunity as a best-in-class single-agent glaucoma therapy. The company reported gross cash of €31.6m at 30 June 2022 (vs €35.1m at end-March), and continues to expect that funds on hand should be sufficient to maintain operations into Q423, based on the development of NCX-470 alone.
Nicox |
Moving towards key Mont Blanc data in Q4 |
Q222 update |
Pharma and biotech |
21 July 2022 |
Share price performance Business description
Analysts
Nicox is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited. |
Nicox’s Q222 update confirms its overall business plan and its expectation that primary efficacy data for the Mont Blanc Phase III study of lead candidate NCX-470 for the treatment of open-angle glaucoma and ocular hypertension will be released in November 2022. The Mont Blanc data release is potentially a key catalyst for the company, given NCX-470’s opportunity as a best-in-class single-agent glaucoma therapy. The company reported gross cash of €31.6m at 30 June 2022 (vs €35.1m at end-March), and continues to expect that funds on hand should be sufficient to maintain operations into Q423, based on the development of NCX-470 alone.
Year end |
Revenue (€m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/20 |
14.4 |
(10.2) |
(0.30) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/21 |
8.6 |
(15.5) |
(0.32) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/22e |
5.3 |
(18.7) |
(0.43) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/23e |
7.0 |
(19.8) |
(0.44) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
We anticipate that positive Mont Blanc top-line study data, demonstrating superior intraocular pressure (IOP) lowering efficacy to latanoprost, would materially de-risk future NCX-470 development and likely drive a re-rating on the stock. Commercial approval of the product will also require data from the second Phase III study, Denali. The company expects to report Denali top-line data after 2023, but has not yet provided formal updated guidance as it awaits more visibility on the overall timelines of this trial, which has been affected by the COVID-19 situation in China.
Nicox reported that net royalty revenue (which we estimate is predominantly due to Vyzulta-related royalties from Bausch + Lomb (B+L), with a minor contribution from Zerviate royalties from Eyevance) was €0.7m in Q222, up from €0.6m in Q221. Vyzulta US prescriptions continue to increase robustly, up 35% y-o-y in Q222 (vs a 21% y-o-y increase in Q221). We believe that pricing issues in reimbursement are continuing to drive a discrepancy between Nicox’s reported royalties and the Vyzulta prescriptions growth rate, but these should likely flatten out in coming quarters. We note that B+L and Nicox have filed a lawsuit to block a potential generic competitor for Vyzulta, and we do not expect the competitor to be successful in launching the generic, given Vyzulta’s intellectual property and term extensions could provide exclusivity until 2030. With no change reported in Nicox’s debt position, we estimate H122 net cash of €11.1m.
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Research: Investment Companies
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