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GBP1.37
▲ 5.50 (4.18%)
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GBP392m
Research: TMT
As part of a broader vertical integration strategy, disintermediating its value chain to create a more efficient ecosystem, CentralNic has announced the acquisition of MA Aporia, a media and native advertising company. CentralNic is paying an initial cash consideration of US$11.2m, together with performance payments of up to US$7.8m for FY22–24. This implies an initial FY21 EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.6x. The acquisition will be immediately earnings accretive. As Aporia is already an exclusive supplier to CentralNic, the transaction will increase CentralNic’s margins but will have no impact on revenue. Aporia generated FY21 revenue of US$35m, gross profit of US$3.5m and EBITDA of US$2.0m. Despite CentralNic’s continuing momentum (H122 organic growth of 62%), the group trades on c 5.9x FY22 EV/EBITDA and a P/E of 8.0x.
CentralNic Group |
Acquisition of Aporia for up to US$19m |
M&A update |
Software and comp services |
15 September 2022 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
CentralNic Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
As part of a broader vertical integration strategy, disintermediating its value chain to create a more efficient ecosystem, CentralNic has announced the acquisition of MA Aporia, a media and native advertising company. CentralNic is paying an initial cash consideration of US$11.2m, together with performance payments of up to US$7.8m for FY22–24. This implies an initial FY21 EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.6x. The acquisition will be immediately earnings accretive. As Aporia is already an exclusive supplier to CentralNic, the transaction will increase CentralNic’s margins but will have no impact on revenue. Aporia generated FY21 revenue of US$35m, gross profit of US$3.5m and EBITDA of US$2.0m. Despite CentralNic’s continuing momentum (H122 organic growth of 62%), the group trades on c 5.9x FY22 EV/EBITDA and a P/E of 8.0x.
Year end |
Revenue (US$m) |
Adjusted |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
12/20 |
240.0 |
29.4 |
18.6 |
10.0 |
0.0 |
13.8 |
12/21 |
410.5 |
46.3 |
31.9 |
11.8 |
0.0 |
11.7 |
12/22e** |
642.3 |
74.1 |
58.7 |
17.3 |
0.0 |
8.0 |
12/23e** |
736.4 |
84.7 |
70.7 |
18.9 |
0.0 |
7.3 |
Note: *Excludes impact of share-based payments, share option expenses, foreign exchange charges and non-core operating costs. **FY22e and FY23e EPS figures reflect 280.9m voting shares in issue.
Acquisition earnings accretive in FY22
We have updated our forecasts for the acquisition, with no change to revenues. FY22 EBITDA sees a marginal uplift due to its partial year contribution, but FY23 EBITDA rises by US$1.5m. We assume an US$11.2m fall in cash at 31 December 2022, with subsequent cash payments of US$3.9m in each of FY23 and FY24.
Valuation: Strong growth at a compelling price
CentralNic offers a compelling proposition, with organic revenue growth of 62% (last 12 months to H122), recurring revenue products contributing more than 99% of total gross revenues and an adjusted cash conversion of over 100%. Our estimates imply 56% y-o-y revenue growth for FY22, with the shares trading on an FY22 P/E of 8.0x and c 5.9x FY22 EV/adjusted EBITDA. The group has delivered a five-year revenue CAGR of 72%, putting it amongst the fastest-growing technology companies in Europe (Financial Times, 2022), and it is also part of the AIM 100 and AIM UK 50 indices.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
31-December |
US$'000 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022e |
2023e |
|
INCOME STATEMENT |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
Gross revenue |
|
|
109,194 |
240,012 |
410,540 |
642,289 |
736,403 |
Cost of Sales |
(66,419) |
(164,894) |
(292,041) |
(465,829) |
(540,395) |
||
Net revenue |
42,775 |
75,118 |
118,499 |
176,460 |
196,008 |
||
Adjusted EBITDA |
|
|
17,921 |
29,394 |
46,251 |
74,113 |
84,714 |
Normalised operating profit |
|
|
16,615 |
27,310 |
42,737 |
68,616 |
78,410 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(8,299) |
(13,747) |
(18,291) |
(24,084) |
(24,852) |
||
Exceptionals |
(8,259) |
(10,529) |
(7,087) |
(4,000) |
- |
||
Share-based payments |
(2,878) |
(5,113) |
(5,006) |
(5,006) |
(5,006) |
||
Reported operating profit |
(2,821) |
(2,079) |
12,353 |
35,526 |
48,552 |
||
Net Interest |
(471) |
(8,693) |
(10,798) |
(9,957) |
(7,717) |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
74 |
79 |
- |
- |
- |
||
Exceptionals |
- |
- |
- |
(3,950) |
(5,500) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
16,144 |
18,617 |
31,939 |
58,658 |
70,693 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
(6,616) |
(11,834) |
1,555 |
21,618 |
35,335 |
Reported tax |
39 |
975 |
(5,097) |
(7,926) |
(12,659) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
16,119 |
19,592 |
26,842 |
46,927 |
53,020 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(6,577) |
(10,859) |
(3,542) |
13,692 |
22,676 |
||
Minority interests |
64 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
||
Net income (normalised) |
16,183 |
19,592 |
26,842 |
46,927 |
53,020 |
||
Net income (reported) |
(6,513) |
(10,859) |
(3,542) |
13,692 |
22,676 |
||
Basic average number of shares outstanding (m) |
175 |
197 |
227 |
271 |
281 |
||
EPS - basic normalised (c) |
|
|
9.24 |
9.96 |
11.80 |
17.30 |
18.87 |
EPS - diluted normalised (c) |
|
|
8.97 |
9.57 |
10.69 |
16.13 |
17.63 |
EPS - basic reported (c) |
|
|
(3.72) |
(5.52) |
(1.56) |
5.05 |
8.07 |
Dividend (c) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
155.9 |
119.8 |
71.0 |
56.4 |
14.7 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
39.2 |
31.3 |
28.9 |
27.5 |
26.6 |
||
Adj. EBITDA Margin (%) |
16.4 |
12.2 |
11.3 |
11.5 |
11.5 |
||
Adj. EBITDA / Net Revenue (%) |
41.9 |
39.1 |
39.0 |
42.0 |
43.2 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
15.2 |
11.4 |
10.4 |
10.7 |
10.6 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
217,544 |
270,578 |
271,830 |
339,654 |
325,830 |
Intangible Assets |
206,055 |
255,716 |
254,169 |
324,279 |
312,488 |
||
Tangible and Right-of-use Assets |
6,427 |
8,677 |
8,601 |
6,315 |
4,722 |
||
Investments & other |
5,062 |
6,185 |
9,060 |
9,060 |
8,621 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
67,433 |
77,606 |
128,391 |
161,285 |
202,404 |
Stocks |
491 |
1,011 |
895 |
895 |
2,393 |
||
Debtors |
40,760 |
47,941 |
71,363 |
71,363 |
71,363 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
26,182 |
28,654 |
56,133 |
89,027 |
128,647 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(78,767) |
(96,421) |
(137,129) |
(130,710) |
(131,190) |
Creditors |
(75,683) |
(89,256) |
(117,016) |
(117,016) |
(117,016) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(3,084) |
(7,165) |
(13,694) |
(13,694) |
(14,174) |
||
Other |
- |
- |
(6,419) |
- |
- |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(129,206) |
(137,867) |
(149,110) |
(172,630) |
(172,630) |
Long term borrowings |
(102,799) |
(113,024) |
(124,356) |
(147,876) |
(147,876) |
||
Other long-term liabilities |
(26,407) |
(24,843) |
(24,754) |
(24,754) |
(24,754) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
77,004 |
113,896 |
113,982 |
197,599 |
224,414 |
Minority interests |
69 |
- |
- |
- |
- |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
77,073 |
113,896 |
113,982 |
197,599 |
224,414 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
PBT |
(6,616) |
(11,834) |
1,555 |
21,618 |
35,335 |
||
Depreciation and amortisation |
9,605 |
15,831 |
21,805 |
29,582 |
31,155 |
||
Share-based payments |
2,878 |
5,113 |
5,006 |
5,006 |
5,006 |
||
Working capital |
8,963 |
4,129 |
1,503 |
- |
(1,498) |
||
Exceptional & other |
3,795 |
9,413 |
10,798 |
9,957 |
7,717 |
||
Tax |
(2,309) |
(1,957) |
(2,230) |
(7,926) |
(12,659) |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
16,316 |
20,695 |
38,437 |
58,237 |
65,056 |
Capex |
(15,497) |
(4,259) |
(3,555) |
(7,256) |
(8,319) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(63,840) |
(40,718) |
(26,482) |
(90,150) |
(9,400) |
||
Net interest |
(1,970) |
(9,512) |
(8,647) |
(9,957) |
(7,717) |
||
Equity financing |
2,133 |
34,667 |
- |
58,500 |
- |
||
Dividends |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(62,858) |
873 |
(247) |
9,374 |
39,620 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
2,115 |
74,998 |
84,985 |
81,394 |
65,601 |
FX |
(6,730) |
1,117 |
(2,718) |
- |
- |
||
Other non-cash movements |
(3,295) |
(11,977) |
6,556 |
6,419 |
- |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
74,998 |
84,985 |
81,394 |
65,601 |
25,981 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: TMT
During H123 Checkit made further progress in its transition to a 100% subscription business, achieving 82% recurring revenue and a 48% y-o-y increase in annual recurring revenue (ARR). The pipeline has grown and includes material opportunities with enterprise customers for which conversion timing is uncertain. As customers have become more cautious, sales cycles have lengthened, and we conservatively reduce our ARR and revenue forecasts. Despite this, we have improved our EBITDA loss forecasts for FY23/24 on the back of company plans to accelerate the path to profitability, and we note our end FY24 forecast for net cash of £9.5m.
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