Renewi is a leading waste-to-product company in some of the world’s most advanced circular economies, with operations primarily in the Netherlands, Belgium and the UK. Its activities span the collection, processing and resale of industrial, hazardous and municipal waste.
Post its initial approach, Macquarie decided not to make an offer for the group, while the Renewi board’s view was that the 810p proposed offer significantly undervalued the group. At the capital markets day in October, management set targets for ‘at least’ 5% organic sales growth, high single-digit operating margins, free cash flow generation of at least 40% of EBITDA and a return on capital of over 15%, offering an attractive set of financials if fully achieved.
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Flash note
Annemieke den Otter
CFO
Ben Verwaayen
Chairman
Otto de Bont
CEO
Forecast net debt (€m)
412.9
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
113
% | 1M | 3M | 12M |
---|---|---|---|
Actual | 3.8 | (8.5) | (4.8) |
Relative | 2.1 | (13.0) | (4.7) |
52 week high/low | 734.0p/450.0p |
Renewi’s Q3 update highlighted further weakness in the Netherlands’ construction sector, a key segment for Commercial Waste Netherlands, with October 2023 showing a 27% annual decrease in the new projects started index. Management announced a programme to generate €15m of cost savings at the interim results, expected to benefit H224 by €5m; nevertheless this has led us to reduce full year expectations. The Belgian arm of Commercial Waste remains more resilient and the rest of the group is performing in line.
Y/E Mar | Revenue (€m) | EBITDA (€m) | PBT (€m) | EPS (fd) (c) | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022A | 1869.2 | 261.5 | 105.3 | 98.0 | 6.8 | N/A |
2023A | 1892.3 | 257.0 | 103.7 | 89.0 | 7.4 | N/A |
2024E | 1843.3 | 232.2 | 69.9 | 60.0 | 11.0 | N/A |
2025E | 1891.5 | 248.2 | 83.1 | 71.0 | 9.3 | N/A |
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