Phoenix Spree Deutschland (PSD) is a long-term investor in mid-market residential property in Berlin, targeting reliable income and capital growth. Its core strategy is to acquire unmodernised apartment blocks that may be improved to the benefit of tenants, generating attractive returns for shareholders.
Demographic trends within the Berlin market remain positive, providing continuing support for free market rental values. Rising interest rates, inflation, and economic uncertainty is depressing private buyer and institutional investment demand, creating a headwind for capital values.
Richard Collins
COO
Stuart Young
Partner, head of public markets
Forecast net cash (€m)
297.2
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
N/A
% | 1M | 3M | 12M |
---|---|---|---|
Actual | (6.9) | (8.8) | (41.1) |
Relative | (1.5) | (9.1) | (40.6) |
52 week high/low | 395.0p/229.0p |
The fundamental demand-supply balance for Berlin rented residential accommodation remains robust but rising bond yields and challenging economic conditions have reduced investor activity and negatively affected property valuations. Phoenix Spree’s (PSD’s) FY22 portfolio valuation was 3.1% lower on a like-for-like basis, with a 5.2% H2 decline offsetting the 2.1% H1 gain. As previously indicated by the company, FY22 condominium sales were negatively affected by market conditions but positively, the premium to book value on condominium notarisations (22.4%) continued despite weaker volumes (€4.7m vs €15.2m in FY21). PSD expects to continue to benefit from rent reversion built into the portfolio and is well-placed for a medium-term recovery in condominium sales, with 76% of units designated as such. Interest costs are fixed at 2.1% until 2026. With results in late March, PSD expects to report FY22 EPRA NTA per share within a range of €5.09–5.14.
Y/E Dec | Revenue (€m) | EBITDA (€m) | PBT (€m) | EPS (c) | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2020A | 23.9 | 48.3 | 37.9 | 30.11 | 8.6 | 38.0 |
2021A | 25.8 | 45.4 | 45.3 | 39.26 | 6.6 | 30.8 |
2022E | 26.5 | (35.4) | (37.0) | (33.99) | N/A | 83.6 |
2023E | 28.2 | 9.2 | 1.4 | 1.57 | 164.7 | 27.4 |
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