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Currency in USD
Last close As at 07/06/2023
USD15.35
▲ −0.25 (−1.60%)
Market capitalisation
USD5,594m
Pan American Silver is one of the largest global primary silver producers and a sizeable gold miner with operations in North, Central and South America since 1994. It owns 11 producing operations, the currently suspended top tier Escobal silver mine and a number of large-scale advanced exploration/development projects.
While gold and silver prices are volatile, PAAS’s share price performance remains relatively muted and, in our opinion, does not reflect the transformative nature of the Yamana transaction. The stock is currently trading at a consensus FY23e EV/EBITDA of just 8x, which appears to be an undemanding multiple.
Metals & Mining
Metals & Mining
Metals & Mining
Metals & Mining
Mining Analyst
Guido Mastropietro
Director, finance
Siren Fisekci
VP, investor relations and corporate communic
Forecast net debt (US$m)
N/A
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
N/A
| % | 1M | 3M | 12M |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | (15.3) | 0.8 | (33.9) |
| Relative | (17.9) | (5.9) | (35.5) |
| 52 week high/low | US$23.4/US$13.6 |
PAAS reported a strong set of Q123 results, despite visibly lower silver and gold production and sales, which were affected by the decommissioning of the Manantial Espejo project (1Moz of silver in Q422 on a 95% ownership basis). Sequentially lower sales were partly offset by higher realised silver and gold prices. The main highlight of the results was an impressive cost performance, with unit cash costs falling 15% q-o-q in the silver segment and remaining broadly flat in the gold segment. The gold segment all in sustaining cost (AISC) was 20% lower q-o-q, with the silver segment AISC dropping 21% q-o-q. As a result, the company reported a 4% q-o-q increase in revenues to US$390m and a 27% q-o-q increase in EBITDA to US$117m. On a consolidated basis, net debt was US$668m, with cash and short term investments of US$513m.
| Y/E Dec | Revenue (US$m) | EBITDA (US$m) | PBT (US$m) | EPS (fd) (c) | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021A | 1632.8 | 593.2 | 274.0 | 60.10 | 25.5 | 32.7 |
| 2022A | 1494.7 | 272.0 | (66.6) | (51.01) | N/A | N/A |
| 2023E | 2437.7 | 733.7 | 185.7 | 37.36 | 41.1 | 53.2 |
| 2024E | 2895.8 | 1099.0 | 468.0 | 77.58 | 19.8 | 20.3 |
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