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Currency in GBP
Last close As at 02/06/2023
GBP0.14
▲ 0.60 (4.39%)
Market capitalisation
GBP317m
Pan African Resources has four major producing precious metals assets in South Africa: Barberton (target output 95koz Au pa), the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project, or BTRP (20koz), Elikhulu (55koz) and Evander underground, incorporating Egoli (currently 45koz, rising to >75koz).
Our core valuation of Pan African is 32.59c/share (27.08p/share), based on projects either already in production or sanctioned. However, this rises by a further 16.09–21.11c (13.30–17.45p) once other assets (eg Egoli) are also taken into account. Alternatively, if the company’s historical average price to normalised headline EPS ratio of 8.6x is applied to our forecasts, it implies a share price of 29.53p in FY23, followed by one of 30.49p in FY24.
Director, Energy & Resources
Cobus Loots
CEO
Deon Louw
FD
Keith Cousens Spencer
Chairman
Forecast net debt (US$m)
37.2
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
11
| % | 1M | 3M | 12M |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | (19.4) | 0.1 | (28.6) |
| Relative | (15.6) | 5.8 | (27.4) |
| 52 week high/low | 21.2p/12.8p |
Group production guidance for FY23 remains unchanged at 195–205koz; however we have upgraded our forecasts for the full year in the wake of interim results. In the short term, Pan African will benefit from a reconfiguration of the Fairview and Sheba mines to continuous (24/7) operations. Subject to the normal permitting process, the group will embark upon the development of its Mogale project later this year, which we believe will increase medium-term production to c 250koz pa in 2026 and push normalised headline EPS to close to 6.00c/share.
| Y/E Jun | Revenue (US$m) | EBITDA (US$m) | PBT (US$m) | EPS (c) | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021A | 368.9 | 156.6 | 117.7 | 4.54 | 3.9 | 2.8 |
| 2022A | 376.4 | 147.8 | 117.2 | 4.44 | 4.0 | 2.4 |
| 2023E | 314.9 | 130.2 | 97.4 | 3.82 | 4.7 | 3.4 |
| 2024E | 325.0 | 130.7 | 105.0 | 4.71 | 3.8 | 2.6 |
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