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Currency in GBP
Last close As at 25/03/2023
GBP0.15
▲ 0.62 (4.28%)
Market capitalisation
GBP322m
Pan African Resources has four major producing precious metals assets in South Africa: Barberton (target output 95koz Au pa), the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project, or BTRP (20koz), Elikhulu (55koz) and Evander underground, incorporating Egoli (currently 45koz, rising to >75koz).
Following H123 results, our core valuation of PAF was 32.59c/share (27.08p/share), based on projects either already in production or sanctioned. However, this rises by 16.09–21.11c (13.30–17.45p) once other assets (eg Egoli) are also taken into account. Alternatively, if PAF’s historical average price to normalised EPS ratio of 8.6x is applied to our FY23 forecast, it implies a share price of 29.53p, followed by 30.49p in FY24.
Metals & Mining
Metals & Mining
Metals & Mining
Director, Energy & Resources
Cobus Loots
CEO
Deon Louw
FD
Keith Cousens Spencer
Chairman
Forecast net debt (US$m)
74.5
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
21
| % | 1M | 3M | 12M |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | 7.2 | (9.5) | (27.6) |
| Relative | 12.5 | (10.4) | (26.8) |
| 52 week high/low | 24.0p/12.8p |
On 13 March, Pan African Resources (PAF) announced the completion of the final component in its funding package for its Mintails dump retreatment project outside Johannesburg. The funding is in the form of an innovative transaction with Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) in the style of a synthetic forward sale agreement, whereby Pan African will sell 4,846oz of gold per month to RMB for 24 months, commencing in March at a fixed price of ZAR1,025,000/kg (US$1,750/oz at the prevailing forex rate), in return for an upfront premium of ZAR400m (US$22.0m). Including the upfront premium, the effective price at which the group will sell these ounces (representing c 30% of annual group production) will be ZAR1,135,604/kg (US$1,938/oz at prevailing rates) over the full 24-month period.
| Y/E Jun | Revenue (US$m) | EBITDA (US$m) | PBT (US$m) | EPS (c) | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021A | 368.9 | 156.6 | 117.7 | 4.54 | 4.2 | 3.0 |
| 2022A | 376.4 | 147.8 | 117.2 | 4.44 | 4.3 | 2.6 |
| 2023E | 355.0 | 144.5 | 109.0 | 4.17 | 4.6 | 3.1 |
| 2024E | 342.1 | 130.1 | 100.2 | 4.31 | 4.4 | 2.8 |
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