Pan African Resources (AIM: PAF)

Currency in GBP

Last close As at 29/09/2023

GBP0.15

−0.04 (−0.27%)

Market capitalisation

GBP336m

Pan African Resources (PAF) has four major producing precious metals assets in South Africa: Barberton (target output 95koz Au pa), the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project, or BTRP (20koz), Elikhulu (55koz) and Evander underground, incorporating Egoli (currently 30koz, rising to >100koz).

Our core valuation of PAF is 34.24 cents per share (26.86p/share), based on projects either already in production or sanctioned. However, this rises by a further 17.47–22.49c (13.70–17.64p) once other assets (eg Egoli) are taken into account. Alternatively, if the company’s historical average price to normalised headline EPS ratio of 8.6x is applied to our forecasts, it implies a share price of 23.51p in FY23.

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Equity Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

Lord Ashbourne

Director, Energy & Resources

Key Management

  • Cobus Loots

    CEO

  • Deon Louw

    FD

  • Keith Cousens Spencer

    Chairman

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (US$m)

76.8

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

21

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual 8.0 15.3 (11.4)
Relative 4.8 14.3 (17.8)
52 week high/low 20.2p/12.0p

Financials

Pan African Resources’ (PAF’s) FY23 results, announced on 13 September, were closely in line with our forecasts. Barberton underground, Evander underground and the Barberton Tailings Retreatment Project (BTRP) all recorded higher throughputs at slightly lower grades than we had been expecting, but also lower unit cash costs in ZAR/t terms. Elikhulu performed in line with our expectations in terms of output, albeit at slightly higher unit costs, owing to continued electricity supply disruptions and unfavourable weather. Overall, earnings for H123 and FY23 were US$2.5m higher than our prior forecasts, translating into 8.5% outperformance and 4.3% outperformance, respectively. EPS was in the top half of the consensus forecast range.

Y/E Jun Revenue (US$m) EBITDA (US$m) PBT (US$m) EPS (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2022A 376.4 147.8 117.2 4.44 4.2 2.5
2023A 321.6 121.9 92.9 3.54 5.2 2.7
2024E 359.0 165.1 136.7 5.40 3.4 3.1
2025E 395.1 180.5 141.7 5.69 3.3 2.1

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