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Currency in EUR
Last close As at 07/06/2023
EUR0.56
▲ −0.01 (−1.75%)
Market capitalisation
EUR28m
France-based Nicox develops therapeutics for the treatment of ocular conditions. Lead candidate NCX-470 is in Phase III studies for the treatment of glaucoma and it is advancing NCX-4251 for dry eye disease. Nicox receives licence revenue for its FDA-approved drugs Vyzulta and Zerviate.
In addition to its established intraocular pressure lowering activity, Nicox is starting a Phase IIIb study in H123 to investigate whether NCX-470 can provide improvements to retinal perfusion, which may provide an additional protective mechanism for glaucoma treatment. Nicox had €21.4m gross cash at 31 March 2023 and has guided that it is financed into Q224, based on the development of NCX-470 alone.
Healthcare
Healthcare
Analyst - Healthcare
Andreas Segerros
CEO
Gavin Spencer
Executive VP and Chief Business Officer
Michele Garufi
Chairman
Forecast net debt (m)
N/A
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
N/A
| % | 1M | 3M | 12M |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | (3.6) | (29.1) | (67.7) |
| Relative | 1.7 | (27.0) | (70.0) |
| 52 week high/low | €2.1/€0.6 |
We are adjusting our assumptions for Nicox’s strategy for lead candidate NCX-470. We now assume the company will rely on external partners or licensees to market the drug for treating glaucoma and ocular hypertension (OHTN), rather than develop resources and infrastructure to commercialise the drug internally. We have increased our NCX-470 forecasts for China, offset by more conservative assumptions in Europe. We have also raised our estimates for licence revenue for Zerviate sales in China following the recent submission of a new drug application (NDA) by Nicox’s licensee, Ocumension, in this market, offset by a reduction in our forecasts for US Zerviate-related revenue. Altogether, our rNPV is lower, at €108.0m (vs €166.8m previously), largely because we assume that by out-licensing NCX-470, Nicox’s eventual share of the drug’s related sales and operating income will be lower than previously assumed.
| Y/E Dec | Revenue (m) | EBITDA (m) | PBT (m) | EPS () | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021A | 8.6 | (16.5) | (15.5) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2022A | 5.2 | (21.1) | (18.3) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2023E | 6.6 | (17.9) | (19.8) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2024E | 7.6 | (19.1) | (22.4) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
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