Via its Karibib project in Namibia and unique IP, Lepidico is a vertically integrated lithium development business that has produced both lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from non-traditional hard rock lithium-bearing minerals using its registered L-Max and LOH-Max processes.
In the light of its updated DFS, we conservatively value Lepidico at 5.39c/share, plus a further 0.68–1.66c/share for a significantly risk-adjusted full-scale, 20,000tpa lithium carbonate equivalent Phase 2 plant. However, if Benchmark Mineral Intelligence’s lithium hydroxide price forecasts are used in our model (rather than our own), this valuation almost doubles to 10.17c/share.
Metals & Mining |
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Metals & Mining |
Update
Metals & Mining |
Update
Metals & Mining |
Flash note
Joe Walsh
CEO
Shontel Norgate
CFO
Forecast net debt (A$m)
34.4
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
42
% | 1M | 3M | 12M |
---|---|---|---|
Actual | (36.8) | (54.9) | (71.3) |
Relative | (36.3) | (56.3) | (72.3) |
52 week high/low | A$0.0/A$0.0 |
Lepidico’s patented technologies produce lithium hydroxide (plus by-products) in an environmentally friendly way, sourced from less contested minerals such as lepidolite. On 30 October, it released updated economics in relation to its 2020 DFS for an integrated lithium hydroxide mine and chemical plan, which indicated an NPV (8%) of US$457m or c A$697m (9.4 Australian cents per share) on a pre-funding basis. Based on our previous research, this would imply a pre-funding valuation for Lepidico of 2.9c/share, to which its shares are currently trading at a substantial discount.
Y/E Jun | Revenue (A$m) | EBITDA (A$m) | PBT (A$m) | EPS (fd) (c) | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022A | 0.0 | (4.8) | (7.9) | 0.0 | N/A | N/A |
2023A | 6.4 | (1.2) | (3.0) | 0.0 | N/A | N/A |
2024E | 0.0 | (3.1) | (3.7) | 0.0 | N/A | N/A |
2025E | 0.0 | (3.1) | (6.9) | 0.0 | N/A | N/A |